DJI/RUT Stock Forecast: Large-Cap Stocks VS Small-Cap Stocks in the Period of Macroeconomic Instability

Sergey Okun  This "DJI/RUT Stock Forecast: Large-Cap Stocks VS Small-Cap Stocks in the Period of Macroeconomic Instability" article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • The DJI/RUT spread of 16.64 is lower than the historical level of 17.19.
  • Economic uncertainty increases the attractiveness of large-cap stocks due to their financial sustainability. 
  • The I Know First AI algorithm provides a higher signal forecast for DJI than for RUT in the 1-year time horizon.

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Stock Market Forecast for Major US Indexes Reaches 70% Accuracy Despite Market Volatility

Stock Market Indexes Forecast Highlights:

  • The best hit Ratio is 100% for the 1-year time horizon for SPY ETF, Dow Jones Industrial and Transportation Indexes
  • S&P500 is reaching 90% accuracy for the 3-month time horizon
  • Our performance evaluation period covers the Covid-19 times, yet all the forecasts are still more than 50% accurate for all time horizons except Russell 2000

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Stock Market Forecast for Major US Indexes Reaches 100% Accuracy Despite Market Volatility

Stock Market Indexes Forecast Highlights:

  • The best hit Ratio is 100% for the 1-year time horizon for all stocks
  • SPY is reaching 100% accuracy for the 3-month time horizon
  • Our performance evaluation period covers the Covid-19 times, yet all the forecasts are still more than 51% accurate for all time horizons except Russell 2000 for the 7-day time horizon
  • I Know First provides an investment strategy for institutional investors that generated a return of 145.59% and exceeded the S&P 500 return by 100.1% for the analyzed period

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Russell 2000 Index: I Know First Index Forecasts Evaluation Report

Russell 2000 Index Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of market indices predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Russell 2000 Index with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 9 August 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our Russell 2000 predictions in the market.

Highlights:

  • 91% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period for Russell 2000 predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 63% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

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Russell 2000 Index Forecast Based on Algorithms: RUT’s Chart of the Last 5 Months