Emotions vs. Reason in Stock Trading: When the Market’s Cheering but the Signals Say Run

dr roitman

Co-Founder & CTO of I Know First Ltd. With over 35 years of research in AI and machine learning. Dr. Roitman earned a Ph.D  from the Weizmann Institute of Science

Highlights

  • How AI helped Dr. Roitman overcome emotional bias and avoid the 2025 market crash
  • A personal journey from chemistry to building a professional-grade predictive model for stock markets
  • Why emotional discipline — not just data — is key in navigating turbulent financial markets

How I got saved from most of the market crash.

1. I’m not a rational trader, more of an emotional one. In my youth I started investing or you’d say trading. It was not very successful, to say the least. In the 1980’s I bought shares in a little known company Apple Computers. I sold them when I thought IBM was going to kill them.

2. In the early 1990s I bought my first real computer, a PC AT. When windows and MS

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Machine Learning in Finance: I Know First’s Deep Learning Trading Strategies

Science fiction is now part of our everyday life as machine learning and artificial intelligence are being more and more embedded in our lives through functions such as visual and audio recognition performed by "digital intelligence" instead of human intelligence. I Know First applies machine learning in finance to predict the future state of the market, these predictions can be used for the development of deep learning trading strategies and result in investment portfolios with excellent returns and performance statistics as we will show below.

An Overview of How To Use I Know First’s AI Forecasts for ETF Trading

In the following we give an overview of the construction and performance of ETF Portfolios constructed using I Know First’s Algorithmic Forecasts for the SPDR Sector ETFs. We present the construction and performance of:

  1. Portfolios which directly use the algorithmic signals generated to select the sector ETFs to invest in and to rebalance the portfolio
  2. Portfolios which use sector-level predictions computed by aggregating our forecasting algorithm’s daily forecasts for individual S&P 500 stocks
  3. Portfolios which combine the algorithmic forecasts with an equally invested benchmark to create long only strategies which allow investors to target desired alpha and beta statistics

We show that these portfolios register very good performance statistics over the analyzed time-horizon outperforming the benchmark.

Press Release: Yaron Golgher, CEO of I Know First Spoke at Finovate London Conference

Press Release

Press Release: Tel Aviv, Israel, March 20th, 2018

– FINOVATE 2018, Conference Date: MARCH 6-9, 2018, London, UK 

Yaron Golgher, CEO and Co-Founder of I Know First was selected to speak Finovate Europe Conference Event as a featured keynote speaker in London. Yaron discussed how artificial intelligence will transform investing. Finovate this year hosted 1400+ attendees, 70+ companies demoing, 120+ expert speakers, and countless opportunities. Finovate annually demonstrates cutting-edge banking, financial and payments technology in a unique, short-form, demo format. After the 70+ demos over the first two days, get advice and insights from another 120+ Fintech experts in a newly expanded programme.

Finovate Europe is the only conference series focused exclusively on showcasing the best and most innovative new financial and banking technologies. Finovate conferences consistently attract large, high-impact audiences of senior financial and banking executives, venture capitalists, press, industry analysts, bloggers, regulators, and entrepreneurs. Finovate’s annual events include FinovateFall (New York), FinovateSpring (San Jose), and FinovateEurope (London). Finovate’s event featured six tracks, making sure that everyone is interested matter what their focus is, including: Banking, Investing, RegTech, New Tech, Payments, Digital Lending.

Yaron presented as a keynote speaker under the “Investing” category (see here for reference) as part of the Digital Investing Summit. To read more about this category, read here.

Below are images of the Finovate London Event where Yaron was invited to speak as a keynote speaker.

For more information on this event, visit here.

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I Know First, Ltd. is a financial technology company that provides daily investment forecasts based on an advanced, self-learning algorithm. Thus, the company’s algorithm predicts over 8,000 securities (and growing). Thus, it has capabilities to discover patterns in large sets of historical stock market data.

The underlying technology of the algorithm based itself on Artificial Intelligence. It also based itself on machine learning and incorporating elements of artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms. Moreover, the algorithm generates daily market predictions for stocks, commodities, ETF’s, interest rates, currencies, and world indices for the short, medium and long-term time horizons.

For more information, visit I Know First.

I Know First’s Brazilian Stock Market Track Record: Beating Bovespa

On August 1st 2017 I Know First finished the implementation and the training period of its AI-based ranking and forecasting system for the main equities listed on the Brazilian Stock Exchange Bovespa. On this date the first Brazilian stock forecast was published for the subscribed investors in the local market.

Daily Stock Trading Strategy Returns 42.59% in H1 2016

GinaGina Guinasso is a Financial Analyst at I Know First. She graduated from Arizona State University with a bachelor's degree in Real Estate and University of San Francisco with a Master of Science in Financial Analysis. 

Daily Stock Trading Strategy

This trade report examines one of the successful daily trading strategies of I Know First in more detail. Only the S&P500 stocks universe is considered and the trades selection process is based on the more predictable assets with additional rules applied to the signal. The overall return from January 7th, 2016 to July 15th, 2016 was 42.59% of invested capital using this strategy, while the S&P 500 returned only 8.62% during the same time period. At the same time the annualized volatility was just 2.6% above that of the S&P 500, resulting in a very high Sharpe ratio.


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Trade Simulator Using I Know First Algorithms: 48.48% in 14 Days

On the 27th of March 2015 the I Know First algorithm released a bullish signal of  69.13 (first place that) on its 1 Month forecast for Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. (YZC). YZC is an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) of Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. Ltd. On that day YZC opened at $7,29 and by that moved 3 cent above its 5 day simple moving average, which is a strong position to buy a stock at. Below is the original forecast, and the resulting trade which made 48.48% in 2 weeks.

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