How do you read the Market Forecast and Forecast Performance charts?
Q. What is the forecast date?
A. The forecast date is the date the algorithm released this set of predictions.
Q. What is the time horizon?
A. The time horizon is the suggested period of time to hold the suggested stocks. When we calculate the forecast performance, we do so from the forecast date through the end of the time horizon.
Q. What is the Heat Map on the left side of the Market Forecast/Performance screen?
A. The left-hand side of the Market Forecast/Performance screen is the algorithm’s stock predictions for the given time horizon. The algorithm sorts through two hundred of the most predictable stocks and sorts them by the predicted strength of their movement (signal); those on top are forecasted to rise the most and those on the bottom are predicted to fall the most.
Q. What do the colors indicate?
A. The green boxes signify long predictions and the red boxes signify short predictions. The bright shades denote the strongest predictions.
Q. What is the heatmap?
A. The heatmap is the agglomeration of all the colors of the stock predictions. An overwhelmingly green heatmap suggests the market will generally go up and an overwhelmingly red heatmap suggest that the market will generally go down.
Q. What are the Top 10 stock predictions?
A. The Top 10 stock predictions are the stocks that are poised to grow the most (have the strongest positive signals).
Q. What is the S&P 500 stock prediction and why do you include it?
A. The S&P 500 is the major US index and is the general indicators for the direction of the US stock market. If the algorithm predicts that the S&P 500 will go up, then it is a good sign that the stock market will generally increase. It helps in decision making. It is generally preferable to go long the Top 10 stocks when the S&P 500 has a positive prediction, and to go short the 10 stocks on the bottom of the table when the S&P 500 has a negative prediction.
Q. What are the symbols/numbers in each stock prediction?
A. The top-left symbol is the stock ticker for each forecasted stock.
A. The middle-right number is the signal. The signal expresses the direction and magnitude the algorithm believes an asset will move. A positive signal denotes a long prediction and a negative signal denotes a short prediction. A strong signal indicates that algorithm believes that the stock will move by a large magnitude. A strong symbol varies by the market being analyzed — the stock market has relatively large signals because it is volatile while the currency market has relatively small signals because it’s movements are less pronounced.
When analyzing an asset’s signal it is important to compare its present signal relative to those of other assets in its asset class as well as to its own historical signals. The absolute number of the signal is relevant only in these three contexts:
1. In comparison to the other stocks in the table, and
2. In comparison to the previous signals for the same stock. (See the graphs in the published articles).
3. In relation to the stock price at which each previous signal was issued.
A. The bottom-left number is the predictability. The predictability is the confidence of the algorithm’s prediction, a relative indicator of how likely the stock will move in the predicted direction. The predictability is the historical correlation between the algorithmic prediction and the actual market movement for each particular asset. As with signals, predictabilities are relative, therefore, its important to compare an asset’s present predictability to its historical predictabilities.
Each cell has the values for the signal and the predictability. If the cell has only one, or no values, it means they are zero, or close to zero.
Q. What is the table to the right of the Heat Map?
A. The right-hand side of the Market Forecast/Performance screen is the summary of the performance of the algorithm’s forecasts during the given time horizon.
Q. What are the arrows (green “up-arrow”/red “down-arrow)?
A. The green “up-arrow” denotes a recommended long position and the red “down-arrow” denotes a recommended short position.
Q. What are the percentages to the right of the arrows?
A. These are the percent changes in the stocks from the time they were forecast through the end of the time horizon. The percentage changes are positive if the stock increases and negative if the stock decreases.
Q. What is the accuracy (checks and x marks)?
A. If the algorithm correctly predicts the direction of a stock’s movement, a check mark is placed next to the stock’s return and if the algorithm is incorrect in its prediction, an x mark is placed next to the stock’s return.
Q. Why is there occasionally a check mark next to a negative percentage?
A. When the algorithm suggests shorting a stock (red “down-arrow”) and the stock decreases in value (negative percentage), the algorithm was correct in its prediction.
Q. What is the return?
A. The return is the percentage movement of each stock multiplied by 1 if the algorithm suggested a long position or multiplied by negative 1 if the algorithm suggested a short position. In other words if the algorithm correctly predicts the direction of the stock, the return is the positive percentage change of the stock, and if the algorithm incorrectly predicts the direction of the stock, the return is the negative percentage change of the stock.
Q. How do you calculate the average Top 10 return?
A. The average Top 10 return is the sum of all the suggested Top 10 stock returns divided by 10. If one were to invest in each of the Top 10 stocks with equal weights, he would earn the “average return.”
How should I Invest with the Algorithm?
Q. How should I use I Know First stock forecasts to invest?
A. A simple way to invest would be to buy all of I Know First’s 3-month, Top 10 stock predictions in equal weights on the first day of each quarter, as we did in our sample portfolio. However, we advise checking the forecasts daily to identify trends in the algorithm. For instance the algorithm began predicting Alcatel-Lucent’s (ALU) rise as early as December 9th 2012; however, there was a large correction in the middle of its upward trend. If one followed the algorithm’s signals for ALU daily, he would see a trend of decreasing signals leading up to ALU’s decline and very strong signals before its rise. The signal for ALU on January 1st 2013 was only 152 (it fell 5.04% during the following 3-month period); the signal for ALU on April 1st 2013 was 2561 (it rose 34.59% during the following 3-month period). ALU has risen over 73% since it was first advised.
Q. How should I use the predictabilities and signals?
A. It is recommended that investors consider both the signal strength and predictability, as a highly predictable stock that barely moves and an unpredictable stock that is projected to move drastically both make unattractive investments.
Q. Which time horizons should I follow?
A. The longer-term forecasts (1-month and 3-month) tend to have higher predictabilities as the algorithm can more easily spot long-term trends. We suggest following these two time horizons the most closely, but the more reactionary shorter term horizons are helpful in understanding the short-term volatility of the market. Perhaps if you see that a stock with a strong, positive 3-month prediction has a negative short-term forecast, it is a good idea to wait until the stock decreases in value before buying it.
Q. How should I use the S&P 500 forecast?
A. The S&P 500 is a great representation of the general US stock market. If the algorithm predicts that the S&P 500 will go up, then it is a good sign that the stock market will generally increase. If the predictability for the S&P 500 is relatively weak, then it is important to be cautious, as the algorithm is unconfident about the direction of the stock market.
Q. Do your predictions come with entry and exit points?
A. Our predictions change daily as the algorithm processes the previous day’s new information and as it learns from the previous day’s successes and failures. There are no hard and fast rules for when to enter and exit, but if you see that a stock enters the Top 10 in either the 1-month or 3-month predictions, it is a good idea to wait a week or so to observe the stock’s movement before buying it. It is important to look at both the evolution of stock’s long-term signal as well as the general direction of the stock’s short-term predictions. If the stock has negative short-term predictions, you may be able to buy the stock for a discount before buying it for its projected long-term growth.
Q. Can I get intraday stock predictions?
A. Though our algorithm works best in the long-term, we do offer intraday predictions. To learn more about this option, please email [email protected]
Questions about receiving our newsletter and purchasing our products
Q. What is the I Know First weekly newsletter?
A. We send out a free newsletter every Sunday, which includes our most recent Forecast Performance charts along with occasional stock prediction graphs, articles written by our staff, coupons for our products, and other material we hope investors will find interesting
Q. How much does the weekly newsletter cost to receive?
A. The weekly newsletter is free.
Q. How do I receive the weekly newsletter?
A. If you go to the Subscribe Today page, there is a box on the right-hand side of the page to submit your name and email address. Once you submit your email, you will be added to our email list and receive our free newsletter the following Sunday.
Q. How do I view the various products that I Know First offers?
A. Once you submit your email on the Subscribe Today page, you will automatically be transferred to our Products Page.
Q. Can I pay with PayPal?
A. Yes. Please contact us at [email protected] for more information.
Q. Can I purchase a bundle for various stocks, commodities, currencies, etc.?
A. We offer many customizable bundles that include predictions for various asset classes. Contact us at [email protected] to create your own bundle including the following predictions: stocks, aggressive stocks, European stocks, currencies, commodities, bonds, ETFs, etc.
Questions about the products we offer
Q. What products do you offer?
A. I Know First predicts various different asset markets including stocks, currencies, commodities, binary options, interest rates (bonds), and ETFs. We also make specialized stock predictions such as our aggressive, European, Apple, Bank of America, FTSE 100, and Gold forecasts. We offer services that provide daily predictions of these markets as well as the possibility to customize a portfolio. To view our Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Commodities, Currencies, and World Indexes forecasts visit the I Know First Products Page.
Q. Can I customize my forecasts?
A. Yes. We offer various services that allow you to choose the assets you wish to follow with our Portfolio forecast service.
Q. Which product do you recommend?
A. Since assets with the largest signals are the most likely to move drastically in the forecasted direction, we recommend the Top 5, Top 10, and Top 20 products. To read more about signals go to the “What are the symbols/numbers in each stock prediction” question above.
Q. When do you send your stock forecasts to subscribers?
A. We send our daily stock forecasts by email in the following days and times:
Sunday (this is the forecast for Monday) – at least an hour before the US stock markets open
Tuesday to Friday — at least an hour before the US stock markets open
Q. What is I Know First’s historical return?
A. Though I Know First recommends analyzing its predictions everyday, looking for opportunities to buy the suggested stocks when they are at their lowest prices, we nevertheless calculated the returns of a generic portfolio. This generic portfolio was created by buying all of I Know First’s 3-month, Top 10 stock predictions in equal weights on the first day of each quarter. This portfolio yielded 28.86% since July 1st 2012, beating the S&P 500 by 11.38%; and yielded 16.40% YTD, beating the S&P 500 by 3.95%. Though this is a decent investment strategy for inactive investors (as one only changes his stock portfolio four times per year), we again emphasize the additional merits of checking the forecasts daily to identify trends in the algorithm’s forecasts.
Q. Will I “Get Rich Quick”?
A. Not necessarily. We offer services that forecast the direction of the stock market, which should be used as a guide for your investments. Though we beat the S&P 500 by 11.38% in the past 12 months, we are not promising unrealistic future results.
Q. Am I guaranteed to make money investing with I Know First?
A. No. Though our generic Top 10 stock portfolio has historically performed extraordinarily well, past performance is no guarantee for similar future performance. (However, it is a good indicator).