Tesla Stock Predictions: 100% AI Algorithm Accuracy Amid COVID-19

Executive Summary

hit ratio tesla stock

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the Tesla stock forecast generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the TSLA stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 1 year, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from June 1, 2019 to September 13, 2020. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our TSLA predictions in the stock market.


  • 100% hit ratio of the 1-year horizon forecasts for Tesla allow our clients to invest their money with significantly less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 60% accuracy despite volatile market conditions
  • These results show continuous performance improvement by I Know First AI predictive algorithm amid COVID-19 crisis

Note that the above results were obtained as a result of an evaluation conducted over the specific time period to give a presentation for the TSLA movements. The following report provides an extensive explanation of our methodology and a detailed analysis of the performance metrics that we obtained during the evaluation. This report is a new I Know First evaluation series illustrating the ability to provide successful forecasting on TSLA.

About the I Know First Algorithm

i know first algorithm

The I Know First self-learning algorithm analyses, models, and provides stock market predictions for the capital markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.

The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap with the predicted trend. Consequently, the trader can decide which direction to trade, when to enter the trade, and when to exit the trade. The model is 100% empirical, based only on factual data, thereby avoiding any biases or emotions that may accompany human assumptions. I Know First’s model only involves the human factor in building the mathematical framework and providing the initial set of inputs and outputs to the system. The algorithm produces a forecast with a signal and a predictability indicator. The signal is the number in the middle of the box. The predictability is the number at the bottom of the box. At the top, a specific asset is identified. This format is consistent across all predictions.

tesla stock forecast
Example display of forecast

Our algorithm provides two independent indicators for the index – signal, and predictability.

The signal is the predicted strength and direction of the movement of the index. This is measured from –inf to +inf.

The predictability indicates our confidence in the signal. The predictability is a Pearson correlation coefficient relating to past algorithmic performance and actual market movement, measured from -1 to 1. You can find a detailed description of our heatmap here.

The Hit Ratio Calculation

The hit ratio helps us to identify the accuracy of our algorithm’s predictions.

We predict the direction of the movement of TSLA using our algorithm. Our predictions are then compared against actual movements of TSLA within the same time horizon.

The hit ratio is then calculated as follows:

hit ratio formula

Stock in Spotlight: Tesla Stock Predictions

Tesla, Inc. is an American electric vehicle and clean energy company based in Palo Alto, California. It was founded by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, and joined by Elon Musk, J. B. Straubel, and Ian Wright one year later. It is considered the best plug-in as well as the best-selling battery electric passenger car manufacturer. TSLA is listed on the NASDAQ and the company was one of the first ones that re-opened its Gigafactory in China amid Coronvirus crisis.

Tesla Stock Price Performance amid Coronavirus

tesla stock historical price

From June 1, 2019 to September 13, 2020, the Tesla stock price has fluctuated. Despite a general uptrend from June to February, the stock fell in price over March. The stock has since returned to its pre-covid-19 price and continued to rise up to its all-time high – 498.32$ per share. Following the 1:5 stock split on August 31 2020, the stock fell by 25%. Regardless, the stock gained 906.48% in total during this time period.

Evaluating Tesla Stock Predictions Hit Ratio

tesla stock hit ratio evaluation report

Through the results above, you can see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict TSLA stock movements throughout various time periods. On average, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of hitting TSLA exact movement 100% of the time for the 1-year prediction time horizon. This, in essence, means that the algorithm was correct all the time on the 1-year time horizon, allowing our clients to make the safest investments. Additionally, we can also predict the 3-day, 7-day, 14-day, one-month and 3-months’ time horizons at 60%, 64%, 64%, 76%, and 92% accuracy respectively. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing despite these quick and volatile time periods.

These hit ratios are an improvement since our last report, with growth of 3%, 4%, 3%, 8% and 34% respectively for each time horizon. It shows the I Know First algorithm’s learning progress and was achieved despite an unstable stock market due to the global pandemic.


All in all, we at I Know First have a mission to provide our clients with the most robust and reliable stock market forecasts. By sharpening our ability to predict TSLA using our artificial intelligence system, we provide our clients with increasing certainty that their investment will be safer and more profitable even amid Coronavirus crisis times. Within the bounds of certainty, we have consistently been able to find that we can predict the TSLA movements above 60% of the time over the last 15 months. The peak of that is the 92% hit ratio over 3 months time horizon predictions and 100% hit ratio over the 1-year time horizon forecasts, meaning our predictions for Tesla stock price movement were correct close to all the time on average for long term investments.