Top Stock Picks: Daily US Stocks Forecast Performance Evaluation Report

Executive Summary

In this stock market forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for Top 10 US stocks for long and short positions (20 stocks) and S&P 500 Index which were daily sent to our customers. Our analysis covers the time period from January 1, 2019, to March 15, 2020.

Top 10 US stocks
Chart 1: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 signals by Daily Model vs S&P 500 for Short Term Horizons
Top 10 US stocks
Chart 2: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 signals by Daily Model vs S&P 500 for Long Term Horizons
Chart 3: Hit ratio of Top 20, Top 10, Top 20 signals and S&P 500 forecasts by Daily Model for Short Term Horizons
Chart 4: Hit ratio of Top 20, Top 10, Top 20 signals and S&P 500 forecasts by Daily Model for Long Term Horizons
Chart 5: S&P 500 Index Price (January 1, 2019 – March 15, 2020)

Top 10 US Stocks Evaluation Highlights:

  • I Know First reached 92% accuracy for S&P 500 forecasts on the 1 year time horizon.
  • The Top 10 and Top 5 signal groups generated by I Know First succeeded in outperforming S&P 500 Index in short term horizons.
  • The Top 10 and Top 5 signal groups achieved positive returns for all time horizons.

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Stock Market Predictions: I Know First S&P 500 & Nasdaq Evaluation Report – Accuracy Up To 82%

Stock Market Predictions Highlights:

  • The best Hit Ratio is 82% for the 90 day-time horizon of Nasdaq ETF (QQQ)
  • Almost all forecasts are more than 70% accurate for the longest time horizons
stock market predictions

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Best Tech Stocks Performance Report By I Know First Evaluation

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the results of live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for Big Tech Stocks. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied to pick the best-performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The period under evaluation is from 21st November 2018 to 26th January 2020. The corresponding returns distribution of stock filters for Big Tech stock universe are shown below:

Figure 1: Average Returns Per Time Horizon - Short Term

Big Tech Stock Package Highlights:

  • Both Top 10 and Top 5 signals surpass the 24% mark in the one-year time horizon
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns improvement with the time horizon increase for both Top 10 and Top 5 stocks
  • Both Top 10 and Top 5 stocks consistently out-perform the benchmark

The above results were obtained based on forecasts’ evaluation over the specific time period using a consecutive filtering approach – by predictability, then by signal, to give an overview of the forecasting capabilities of the algorithm for the specific stock universe.

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Best Japanese Stock Market: Daily Forecast and Global Model Performance Evaluation Report

Japanese Stock Market Evaluation Highlights:

  • Stock market forecasts that were generated by our Daily Forecast model obtained positive returns for all time horizons.
  • Top 5 by signal group achieved returns of up to 9,72%. It also outperformed the Nikkei 225 index by a significantly high margin in the 30 and 14 days time horizon in accordance with the Daily Model.
  • The Global Model forecasts obtained positive returns for all time horizons.

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Best Indian Stocks Forecast Evaluation Report by I Know First – November 2019

Executive Summary

In this live forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Indian stock market and sent to our customers on a daily basis. Our analysis covers time period from January 1, 2019 to October 31, 2019.We will start with an introduction to our stock picking and benchmarking methods and then apply it to the stock universe of the S&P BSE as well as all of the stocks covered by us in the “Indian Stocks” Package. This evaluation is part of our continuous studies of live I Know First’s AI predictive algorithm performance.

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I Know First Evaluation Report for Top ETFs Forecast Package

Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for short-term and long-term ETFs which is sent to our customers on a daily basis. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 19 August 2019. We will start with an introduction to our asset picking and benchmarking methods and then apply it to the ETFs universe as covered by the I Know First’s “Top ETFs Forecast” package. We will then compare returns based on our algorithm with the S&P500 performance over the same period. Below we present our key takeaways: 

ETFs Highlights:

  • The best returns were obtained in the 1 month time horizon, with the best performance being a return of 2.69% for the top 5 predictability and signal filtered assets during this time-horizon.
  • The top 5 predictability and signal filtered assets beat the benchmark in all time horizons, with the best outperformance being for the 2 weeks time horizon, where the top 5 assets beat the benchmark by over 87%.

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Russell 2000 Index: I Know First Index Forecasts Evaluation Report

Russell 2000 Index Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of market indices predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Russell 2000 Index with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 9 August 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our Russell 2000 predictions in the market.

Highlights:

  • 91% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period for Russell 2000 predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 63% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

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Dow Jones Predictions: I Know First Evaluation Report for DJI

Dow Jones Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of market indices predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Dow Jones Index (DJI) with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 9 August 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our DJI predictions in the market.

Highlights:

  • 82% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period for DJI predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 54% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

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