Bottom Up Stock Market Forecast for the main World Indices by using AI Powered Predictive Algorithm

Executive Summary

In this stock market forecast evaluation report, we introduced new bottom up signal generation methods using the I Know First AI Algorithm for the following world indices: S&P 500, DAX and CAC40. We compare the new bottom up signals’ performance with the direct forecasts’ performance generated for the indices using our short term model (1 to 6 days) and daily model (3 days to 3 months). Our analysis covers the time period from April 2, 2019, to April 3, 2020.

Bottom Up Forecast Evaluation Highlights:

  • Short term model showed higher hit ratio than the Daily model for the 3 days’ time horizon for all indices analyzed.
  • S&P 500 predictions showed higher hit ratio for all time horizons and methods than DAX and CAC40.
  • Every method has hit ratios higher than 55% for the index’s predictions using Daily Model.

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Stock Market Predictions by I Know First AI Algorithm – Live Test by TV Channel 13

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AI Stock Market Predictions Test

I Know First Team accepted the challenge to build an investment portfolio using our proprietary developed AI predictive algorithm amid one of the highest market volatility period – August 2019. For the test purposes Top 20 stock picks package was utilized – one portfolio was maintained as passive and the other one was actively managed. In both cases our algorithmic trading stock market predictions has proven themselves to be extremely useful and allowing to outperform the major market index – S&P 500.

Stock Market Forecast: I Know First S&P 500 & Nasdaq Evaluation Report – Accuracy Up To 72%

Stock Market Predictions Highlights:

  • The best Hit Ratio is 72% for the 90-day time horizon of Nasdaq ETF (QQQ)
  • Our performance evaluation period covers the Covid-19 times, yet all the forecasts are still more than 60% accurate for all time horizons.
stock market predictions

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Top S&P 500 Stocks Performance Report By Day Of The Week By I Know First Evaluation

Executive Summary

Is there a best day to start trading with I Know First AI signals? The purpose of this report is answer this question presenting the results of our live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for S&P 500 Stocks. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied, picking the top 5 signals out of the 30 most predictable ones. Also, the results were filtered by the day of the week the forecasts were generated and compared with the S&P 500. The period under evaluation is from January 1st, 2019 to April 1st, 2020. The corresponding returns distribution for S&P 500 stocks by day of the week are shown below:

Top S&P 500
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S&P 500 Stocks Package Highlights:

  • No matter the day and the time horizon, the average return of the I Know First Algorithm is always positive.
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns improvement with the time horizon.
  • Monday and Wednesday had higher returns on the short-term horizons on average.
  • The algorithm results consistently outperform the S&P 500 in every condition.

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Top Stock Picks: Daily US Stocks Forecast Performance Evaluation Report

Executive Summary

In this stock market forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for Top 10 US stocks for long and short positions (20 stocks) and S&P 500 Index which were daily sent to our customers. Our analysis covers the time period from January 1, 2019, to March 15, 2020.

Top 10 US stocks
Chart 1: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 signals by Daily Model vs S&P 500 for Short Term Horizons
Top 10 US stocks
Chart 2: Performance comparison for Top 20, Top 10 and Top 5 signals by Daily Model vs S&P 500 for Long Term Horizons
Chart 3: Hit ratio of Top 20, Top 10, Top 20 signals and S&P 500 forecasts by Daily Model for Short Term Horizons
Chart 4: Hit ratio of Top 20, Top 10, Top 20 signals and S&P 500 forecasts by Daily Model for Long Term Horizons
Chart 5: S&P 500 Index Price (January 1, 2019 – March 15, 2020)

Top 10 US Stocks Evaluation Highlights:

  • I Know First reached 92% accuracy for S&P 500 forecasts on the 1 year time horizon.
  • The Top 10 and Top 5 signal groups generated by I Know First succeeded in outperforming S&P 500 Index in short term horizons.
  • The Top 10 and Top 5 signal groups achieved positive returns for all time horizons.

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Coronavirus: Stock Market Threats and Opportunities

This article was written by Gabriel Plat, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary:

  • COVID-19 cases are increasing and not showing signs of stopping;
  • Automotive and flight companies could take the biggest hit in 2020;
  • Medical and biotech stocks are among the opportunities in this situation;
  • Netflix and other stream services can benefit from the outbreak.

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Stock Market Predictions: I Know First S&P 500 & Nasdaq Evaluation Report – Accuracy Up To 82%

Stock Market Predictions Highlights:

  • The best Hit Ratio is 82% for the 90 day-time horizon of Nasdaq ETF (QQQ)
  • Almost all forecasts are more than 70% accurate for the longest time horizons
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Top S&P 500 Stocks: Daily Forecast and Global Model Performance Evaluation Report

Top S&P 500 stocks returns summary

Top S&P 500 Stocks Evaluation Highlights:

  • Stock market forecasts that were generated by our Daily Forecast model obtained positive returns for all time horizons and outperformed the S&P 500 for short time horizons (3 to 14 days).
  • We observed a consistent positive effect of signal-based filtering, besides one exception in the 90 days time horizon, additional screening by signal always resulted in higher performance.
  • The Global Model improved the performance even further - our algorithm's forecast according to this new model enabled a more flexible trading strategy that generated robust returns compared to both the S&P 500 Benchmark and the traditional model performance on longer horizons.
  • The highest return of 6.86% was obtained by applying the Global Model on the 90-days time stock market forecast horizon.

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