Interpreting Interpretability in Algorithmic Trading

This article was written by Talia Shakhnovsky, a Financial Analyst at I Know First

Interpreting Interpretability in Algorithmic Trading

“If a machine learning model performs well, why [don’t] we just trust the model and ignore why it made a certain decision?” – Christoph Molnar, author of Interpretable Machine Learning

Summary:

  • An Anecdote on Algorithmic Interpretability
  • What is Machine Learning?
  • Interpreting Interpretability
  • Is Interpretability Ever Insignificant?
  • The Importance of Algorithmic Interpretability
  • Algorithmic Trading: Interpretability in I Know First’s Forecasts

An Anecdote on Algorithmic Interpretability

Envision the near future. Self-driving vehicles roam the roads, and car accidents are a nightmare from the past. Society questions how people could have driven such dangerous machines they weren’t qualified to control.

Until, one day, a headline reads, “BREAKING: Bicyclist Dead in Hit-and-Run”. Shock

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Winning Stock Forecast On a Predictive Algorithm: AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC ) Brings 40.98% in 3 Months

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC), through its subsidiaries, operates as a theatrical exhibition company in the United States and internationally. It owns, operates, or has interests in theatres. As of June 30, 2016, the company owned, operated, or had interests in 386 theatres with 5,334 screens primarily in the United States. Now, counts more than 1,000 theatres and 11,000 screens across the globe. The company was founded in 1920 and is headquartered in Leawood, Kansas. AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. (AMC) operates as a subsidiary of Wanda America Investment Holding Co. Ltd.

Source: Bloomberg

On July 19th I Know First AI Algorithm issued a bullish 3 months  forecast for  AMC Entertainment stock  with predictability indicator of 0.24 and signal indicator of 9.79. In a good agreement with the forecast   the AMC stock is up 40.98% just in 3 months. Below we provide the I Know First heatmap that was send to our clients July 19th:

The results were quite positive in this year for the Company. On May 3 2018, Board Of Directors announced a dividend for the quarter ended March 31 2018. The amount of the dividend in this second quarter was arounr $25,7 milion. On July 24 2018 Board of Directors announced that its has declared a dividend for the quarter ended June 30, 2018, of $0.20 per share on shares of Class A and Class B common stock, its eighteenth consecutive. In addition, AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc in September 2018 said it bought back 24 million shares from its top investor, the Chinese Dalian Wanda Group and issued $600 million worth of convertible notes to private equity firm Silver Lake. Earlier in September, Reuters reported Wanda was exploring a deal to cut its stake in AMC. After the transaction, Wanda now owns about 38% of AMC shares (its previous majority stake 60%). As part of the deal, Silver Lake will get a seat on AMC’s board. Wanda acquired a majority stake in AMC in 2012 for $2.6 billion, in what was then the largest overseas acquisition by a privately held Chinese company and Wanda’s first foray into the United States. In 2017, Chinese regulators told banks to stop providing funding to companies such as Wanda, HNA Group Co Ltd and Anbang Insurance Group Co Ltd for overseas acquisitions, amid concerns over financial overstretching.

 

Chart shows rising trend.

As Loyalty Program, AMC announced that AMC Stubs A-List, With more than 400,000 members, has achieved 80% of the Company’s one-year membership goal and 40% two-year membership goal in just 14 weeks. Adam Aron, AMC CEO and President, said, “While we do not plan to issue A-List enrollment statistics on a weekly basis, our hitting more than 400,000 enrolled members only three months and a week after launching the program is an enormous milestone”.

Current I Know First subscribers received this bullish forecast on July 19

To subscribe today click here.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster.

How to interpret this diagram

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3 Ways To Cluster Data Using Unsupervised Learning

 

This article was written by Julia Masch, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

 

Highlights:

  • Understanding Unsupervised Learning
  • Types of Clustering and How To Implement Them
  • How I Know First Uses Clustering

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Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare: The Future of the Medical Industry

 

This article was written by Grant Goldstein, a Financial Analyst at I Know First

 

 

Highlights:

  • AI Will Revolutionize Healthcare
  • Google and IBM Lead the AI Healthcare Race
  • I Know First Ventures into Healthcare

I Know First.

 

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Quick Win by the Algorithm: Andeavor (NASDAQ: ANDV) Returns up to 25.11% in 14 Days

“We are excited about the opportunities we see in our business to increase gross margin, improve productivity and deliver synergies from our acquisitions. As always, we remain focused on disciplined capital allocation that delivers the most value to our shareholders.”

-Said Gregory J. Goff, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Andeavor

[Image Source: Wikimedia]

Andeavor, through its subsidiaries, operates as an independent petroleum refining, logistics, and marketing company in the United States. The company operates in three segments: Marketing, Logistics, and Refining.

The Marketing segment sells gasoline and diesel fuel through retail, branded, and unbranded channels. This segment operates a network of 3,255 retail stations under the ARCO, Shell, Mobil, and SUPERAMERICA brands.
The Logistics segment gathers and transports crude oil by pipelines, as well as by trucks. It operates approximately 13 million barrels of crude oil, feedstock

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Launch of I Know First’s AI-Predictive System for the Japanese Stock Market – Beating the Nikkei 225

Launch of I Know First's AI-Predictive System for the Japanese Stock Market - Beating the Nikkei 225

As of December 28th 2017, I Know First finished the implementation and the training period of its AI-based ranking and forecasting model for the main equities listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. On this date, the first Japanese stock forecast was published for the subscribed investors in the local Japanese market, as the timing of the data feed and the forecast generation was adjusted to the respective time zone.

Since then, the predictions generated returns greatly surpassing that of the Nikkei.

Quick Win by the Algorithm: OCLR Stock Soars After Buyout Deal

Quick Win by the Algorithm:

Source: MC-2 Experience via Pinterest

“I am very pleased that two of the optical industry leaders, Oclaro and Lumentum, will join forces.  Together, we will be an even stronger player in fiber optic components and modules for high-speed communications and a market leader in 3D sensing.  This is a fantastic combination for all of our stakeholders, including stockholders, employees, customers and partners. I am extremely proud of what the Oclaro team has accomplished over the last five years. We have enjoyed tremendous success and this combination will

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