Autodesk Stock Forecast: ADSK Is A Buy Before Earnings

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary:

  • Autodesk will report its 3Q FY2020 earnings on November 26. I expect it to beat Wall Street’s EPS and revenue estimates.
  • I recommend ADSK as a buy before earnings gambit. This stock is now trading well below its 2019 high of $178.21. ADSK’s 6-month return is -13.63%.
  • If my bet that Autodesk will report better than expected 3Q FY2020 EPS and revenue numbers, ADSK might shoot up to $165 before December 31.
  • Autodesk’s rapid shift to subscription-based software marketing is paying off well. Its annual recurring revenue is now $3.07 billion. Recurring revenue now accounts for 96% Autodesk’s sales.

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Week #20, 2019: Earnings Calendar

Winning Stock Forecast: Global Eagle Entertainment (NASDAQ: ENT) A High-Flyer Boasting a 49.62% Return in 7 Days

Winning Stock Forecast: Global Eagle Entertainment (NASDAQ:ENT) A High-Flyer Boasting a 49.62% Return in 7 Days

[Source: Wikimedia Commons, May 30, 2018]

“During the first quarter of 2018, we focused on our objectives of operating a healthy core business, driving profitable growth and aggressively transforming our business. We continue to expect a minimum of 25% Adjusted EBITDA growth in 2018 versus 2017”

— Josh Marks, CEO of Global Eagle Entertainment

During the past week, Global Eagle Entertainment’s stock jumped 49.62% outperforming the market by over 50%, following their earnings announcement. Global Eagle Entertainment is a leading provider of media, content, connectivity, and data analytics to markets across air, sea, and land. They reported their financial results for Q1 on May 15th, 2018. For the first quarter of 2018, Global Eagle recorded revenue of $156 million, incurred a net loss of $38.3 million, and generated Adjusted EBITDA of $17.3 million.

However, the company’s stock price for Global Eagle has been under pressure over the last three years. Lower margins and escalating losses have contributed to the price decrease, but recently the company published their Q1 Financial Report detailing their increasing profitability. Its losses swelled from $57 million in 2014 to $357 million in fiscal 2017 though it had robust growth in revenues. The company has been taking several initiatives to support its margins and to generate profitable growth in the coming years.

Nonetheless, as of current, the company’s stock nearly doubled since their May 15th earnings report, from a price of $0.87 at market close in May 15th to $1.84 per share at market close on May 29th. The company’s stock projection is expected to increase in the coming months, as ENT is on the right track in diminishing their net losses.

[Source: Yahoo Finance, May 30, 2018]

Q1 2018 Summary:

  •  Total revenue for the first quarter of 2018 was $156 million, a 2.6% increase over the prior-year period. This increase was primarily driven by growth in service revenue in their Connectivity segment due to new aircraft, vessel and site additions, as well as increased equipment revenue.
  •  Net loss for the first quarter of 2018 was $38.3 million. The smaller net loss over the prior-year period ($125.611 million) was primarily driven by a goodwill impairment in the first quarter of 2017 that did not recur in the first quarter of 2018. In the first quarter of 2017, the Company recorded a non-cash goodwill impairment charge of $78 million related to its Maritime & Land business unit within its Connectivity segment.
  • Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2018 was $17.3 million, which was a slight increase over the prior-year period, primarily due to growth in the Connectivity segment’s service revenue and equipment revenue, which included higher margin sales of spare parts.

The company has been taking several initiatives to support its margins and to generate profitable growth in the coming years.

Business Transformation Strategies

The company has been actively working on business transformation strategies to expand their margins and earnings combined with continued growth from its top-line. They have been working on three key strategies:

  • Running a healthy core business
  • Driving profitable growth
  • Aggressively transforming its business

The company has been seeing the positive impact of business strategies on its financial numbers. ENT has narrowed its losses in the latest quarter. Its loss from continuing operations stood at around $29 million in the most recent quarter; lower from the loss of $101 million in the year-ago period. The management expects its full-year EBITDA to improve 25% from the past year.

Stock Price Movement and Price Target

Global Eagle Entertainment[Source: finviz.com, May 30, 2018]
Its stock plummeted 86% in the last three years. Global Eagle Entertainment stock currently trades around $1.80 a share – with the 52-week trading range of $0.87 – $3.84. The company market cap stands around $163 million at present. Analysts, on the other hand, expect its stock price to trade at around $4 by the end of this year.

Analyst Recommendations:

According to analyst recommendations from Yahoo Finance, the current consensus is a “Buy/Hold” in ENT Stock, with 2 advising a “Buy, 2 advising a “Hold”,  and 1 advising a “Sell”.

I Know First’s Algorithm Success With ENT Stock:

On May 21st 2018. I Know First algorithm issued a bullish 7-day forecast for Global Eagle Entertainment (NASDAQ:ENT). The forecast illustrated a signal  of 11.56 and a predictability of 0.16  In accordance with this bullish forecast, FCAU stock returned 49.62% over this period, highlighting the accuracy of the prediction produced by the I Know First algorithm.

Current I Know First subscribers received this bullish ENT forecast on May 21st 2018. 

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast. 

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Stock Forecast: Easy Site Construction and Increased Subscriptions Drives WIX Up

 

This article was written by Esther Hanon, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

[Source: Wikimedia Commons, May 29th, 2018]

“Our continued focus on product development and efficient marketing investment once again drove strong financial results. This is a strong start to the year, and we are building momentum to propel continued growth through the remainder of 2018.”

--Avishai Abrahami, Co-founder and CEO of Wix

Stock Forecast: Wix.com Ltd. (NASDAQ: WIX) Up 8.5% After Releasing Q1 Revenue Increase of 49%

Summary:

  • WIX stock jumped nearly 9% following their Q1 earnings announcement on May 9th
  • They have beat expectation for both collection and revenues, and are increasing the full year outlook
  • They reported free cash flow of more than $21 million and revenues of $49 million
  • These strong financial results are driven by their continuous focus on innovation, product development and outstanding market execution
  • They've added 231,000 subscriptions this quarter, the most ever

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Winning Stock Forecast: Oasis Petroleum (OAS) Stock Soars Following Impressive Q1 Earnings Report

Winning Stock Forecast:

[Source: Seeking Alpha, May 8th, 2018]

“Our strong start to the year enables the company to stand by its projection of being free cash flow positive on our E&P business for the year, while continuing to grow volumes 15% to 20% year over year. Internally controlled infrastructure through OMS supported flow assurance, reduced costs, and provided access to liquid marketing points.”

Thomas B. Nusz, Oasis’ Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

[Source: Yahoo Finance, May 8th, 2018]
On , Monday, May 7th, 2018, Oasis Petroleum (NYSE: OAS) announced their financial results for the first quarter (Q1) of 2018.  Following their Earnings Announcement held on Monday, OASs stock jumped from $11.23 to $11.82 per share, outperforming the NASDAQ by more than 6%. Upon examining the drivers behind this impressive growth that occurred within the past 8 days, the most recent financial earnings report published by Oasis Petroleum provides the following highlights and updates that shed light on the stock event:

  • Oasis produced 76.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (“MBoepd”) in the first quarter of 2018, representing an increase of 22% over the first quarter of 2017.
  • Completed and placed on production 17 gross operated wells, including 16 gross operated wells in the Williston Basin and 1 gross  operated well in the Delaware Basin, in the first quarter of 2018.
  • Oil differentials improved to $1.67 off of NYMEX West Texas Intermediate crude oil index price in the first quarter of 2018, approximately a 65% decrease over the first quarter of 2017.
  • Lease operating expenses per barrels of oil equivalent decreased over 15% to $6.48 in the first quarter of 2018 compared to $7.71 per Boe in the first quarter of 2017.
  • Exploration and production capital expenditures were $176.9 million for the three months ended March 31, 2018.
  • Closed on the Permian Basin Acquisition from Forge Energy on February 14, 2018, adding an average of approximately 3.6 MBoepd of production and approximately 22,000 net undeveloped acres.
  • Delivered net cash provided by operating activities was $228.4 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $232.9 million for the first quarter of 2018.

Oasis delivered a formidable start to the year by growing volumes to 76,800 Boe per day in the first quarter while maintaining top tier capital efficiency and recycle ratio. The strong start to the year enabled Oasis to stand by its projection of being free cash flow positive on their E&P business for the year, while continuing to grow volumes 15% to 20% year over year. Additionally, internally controlled infrastructure through OMS supported flow assurance, reduced costs, and provided access to liquid marketing points. This combination resulted in reduced downtime and per barrel operating costs in spite of abnormally difficult winter conditions. Also, their access to liquid marketing points as a result of strategic investments in their integrated midstream infrastructure continue to help realize improved price differentials.

Oasis closed the Permian Basin Acquisition on February 14, 2018 and they have now taken over operations. Expansion of their service partnerships developed in the Williston Basin has helped them secure critical services at market competitive prices. Continued positive results of Oasis’s wells and offsets give them confidence in their plan. Their completion cadence is on track, if not a little ahead, and they have secured a second rig for the Permian which should spud by the end of May. They have increased their full year guidance to 81.0 to 84.0 MBoepd and expect production in the second quarter of 2018 to be 76.0 to 80.5 MBoepd, with the Williston being between 72.5 and 76.5 MBoepd and the Delaware being around 3.5 to 4.0 MBoepd.

[Source: PR Newswire, May 8th, 2018]

G&A costs totaled $27.9 million in the first quarter of 2018 vs. $23.2 million in the first quarter of 2017. Amortization of equity-based compensation, which is included in G&A, was $6.8 million, or $0.98 per Boe, in the first quarter of 2018 as compared to $6.7 million, or $1.18 per Boe, in the first quarter of 2017. G&A for the Company’s E&P segment totaled $23.5 million in the first quarter of 2018 vs. $20.1 million in the first quarter of 2017.

Interest expense was $37.1 million for the first quarter of 2018 as compared to $36.3 million for the first quarter of 2017.  Capitalized interest totaled $4.5 million for the first quarter of 2018 vs. $2.8 million for the first quarter of 2017. Cash Interest totaled $37.2 million for the first quarter of 2018, and $35.1 million for the first quarter of 2017.  For the three months ended March 31, 2018, the Company recorded an income tax expense of $0.8 million, resulting in an 18.2% effective tax rate as a percentage of its pre-tax income for the quarter. The Company recorded an income tax benefit of $202.8 million, resulting in a 271.5% effective tax rate as a percentage of its pre-tax loss for the three months ended December 31, 2017.

For the first quarter of 2018, Oasis  reported net income of $0.6 million, or $0.00 per diluted share, as compared to a net income of $23.8 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2017. Excluding certain non-cash items and their tax effect, Adjusted Net Income Attributable to Oasis (non-GAAP) was $30.2 million, or $0.10 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2018, as compared to Adjusted Net Loss Attributable to Oasis of $11.5 million, or $0.05 per diluted share, in the first quarter of 2017.  Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2018 was $232.9 million, as compared to Adjusted EBITDA of $150.6 million for the first quarter of 2017.

Analyst Recommendations:

According to analyst recommendations from Yahoo Finance, the current consensus is a “Buy” in OAS Stock, with 9  advising a “Strong Buy”, 12 advising a “Buy” and 10 advising a “Hold”.

On April 16th, 2018, Know First issued a bullish 14-day forecast for Oasis Petroleum (NYSE: OAS). The forecast illustrated a signal of 20.28 and a predictability of 0.36. In accordance with the forecast, OAS stock returned 24.35% over this period, highlighting the accuracy of the prediction produced by the I Know First algorithm.

Current I Know First subscribers received this bullish OAS forecast on

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Stock Forecast: Chipotle (CMG) Stock Surges After Beating Earnings and Announcing Stock Buyback

 

This article was written by Esther Hanon, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

 

[Source: REUTERS/Carlos Barria/File Photo, May 1, 2018]

Stock Forecast: Chipotle (CMG) Stock Surges After Beating Earnings and Announcing Stock Buyback:

"Job number one is to remind people why they love Chipotle. I think there [are] opportunities to use what we have and present it in new forms, new varieties, to get people re-engaged with what they love about Chipotle. There is an opportunity to bring in new flavors as well. One thing that's great is we got carnitas and chicken that people absolutely crave."

-- CEO Brian Niccol

Summary:

  • Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. have been on a post-earnings tear. While customer traffic trends have been weak ever since Chipotle's late-2015 E. coli outbreak, the company's profit margin came in well ahead of the company's plan for last quarter.
  • Chipotle reported earnings on Wednesday April 25, which sent the stock into orbit. Earnings blew past expectations, coming in at $2.13 per shares compared to consensus of $1.60 per share. Revenues were $1.15 billion, which were only in-line with analyst expectations.
  • Chipotle stock has added some 87 points, or 25%, since reporting earnings. While a move higher was undoubtedly warranted, the massive move higher has reached an extreme -- both on a fundamental and technical basis.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. and DoorDash have partnered to make delivery service available at its more than 1,500 restaurants nationwide.
  • Chipotle is up nearly 48% for the year so far while the S&P 500 index is down 0.1% for the period.
  • CMG is increasing its buyback program by another $100 million. As of March 31, Chipotle had about $50.2 million available for repurchases from its previous buyback program, which had about $118 million at the end of last year.

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Winning Stock Forecast: NSTG Stock Bullish After Q1 Results Expected to Slowly Ease Firm Out of Negative Earnings


Winning Stock Forecast:Image result for nanostring technologies

[Source: Princess Margaret Genomics Centre]

“The journey is never ending. There’s always gonna be growth, improvement, adversity; you just gotta take it all in and do what’s right, continue to grow, continue to live in the moment”
— Antonio Brown

Over the past few weeks, NanoString technologies demonstrated superb stock performance, as seen by their nearly 31% stock growth in a mere 2 weeks. During this time, NSTG stock jumped from $7.29 to $9.86, outperforming the market by 5%. Upon examining the drivers behind this impressive growth that occurred within the past two weeks, the following highlights and updates that shed light on the stock event:

  • NanoString Technologies will release first quarter 2018 financial results after the close of trading on Tuesday, May 8, 2018. Investor expectations are set higher than last year.
  • The company announced the launch of the Breast Cancer 360™ (BC 360) research panel, which provides a unique 360 degree view of a tumor, microenvironment and immune response for breast cancer.
  • NanoString Showcases Groundbreaking Body of Research at the 2018 Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research

 

NanoString Technologies, Inc., a provider of life science tools for translational research and molecular diagnostic products, today announced that the Company will release first quarter 2018 financial results after the close of trading on Tuesday, May 8, 2018. Company management will host a conference call beginning at 4:30pm ET to discuss those results and provide a business update. The latest earnings release for NanoString Technologies Inc’s was announced in December 2017, which showed that company earnings have become less negative compared to the previous year’s level — great news for investors. However, analysts’ outlook for the upcoming year seems pessimistic, with earnings becoming even more negative, generating -US$71.92M in 2019. However, earnings are expected to move into an upward direction, generating -US$61.01M in 2020, and -US$50.22M in 2021.

Profitability Analysis:

Several important technical indicators of NanoString Technologies, Inc. are now starting to make their way into the trading conversation. Every investor and other stake holder of the firm are most concerned at this time with its profitability. So to answer these concerns, financial ratio analysis and profitability ratios are used as tools to determine the company’s bottom line and its return to its investors.

To start, we can focus on ordinary profitability ratio which covers margins. NSTG has a profit margin of -37.90%. It has gross profit margin ratio of 72.30% for trailing twelve months and operating margin is calculated as -33.20%; these are better detectors to find consistency or positive/negative trends in a firm’s earnings. The company had Return on equity of -129.90% in last 12 months period. Return on assets ratio of the Company was -32.10%. Its return on investment ratio was -0.80% in the trailing 12 months period. The Company’s sales have grown at an average annualized rate of about 38.00% during the past five years. For the past 5 years, The Company’s EPS growth has been nearly 67.80%. Analyst established EPS growth expected to grow of 89.40% for this year and EPS growth for next year is likely to attain at 22.30%. Looking about the past performance history, the company plunged -2.48% for the last five trades and expanded 37.39% in one month period. The stock improved 6.73% during the past three month period and decreased -14.15% in a mere half year. During the yearly overview it downgraded -48.11% and showed 21.02% year to date performance. Therefore, the upper calculated figures are representing the firm’s ability to translate sales dollars into profits at various stages of measurement. The gross margin figure of the firm looks at how well a company controls the cost of its inventory and the manufacturing of its products and subsequently pass on the costs to its consumers.

Following in line of profitability ratio analysis, the second part is stock returns analysis. The returns on investment amplifies the findings found before, as the firm’s ROI concludes as -0.80% — it gives an idea for personal financial decisions, to compare a firm’s profitability or to compare the efficiency of different investments. The returns on assets of the firm is also on noticeable level, as it has ROA of -32.10%, which signifies how profitable a firm is relative to its total assets.

Taking notice on volatility measures, NanoString Technologies, Inc. has noticeable recent volatility credentials; price volatility of stock was 4.15% for a recent week and 5.90% for a month. We might think of historical volatility as the rate of change of the underlying stock price. The higher the level of historical volatility, the more that the stock has moved in recent history. Therefore, theoretically, we will also expect that stock to move in similar degrees into the future, although it’s important to remember that historical volatility does not provide insight into either trend or direction. Although there are multiple ways to calculate historical volatility, the basic underlying idea is essentially the same for each. Historical volatility examines how quickly a stock price or future has moved in the past to predict how far it might move in the future. Investor expectations predict that the firm will publish less-negative results during their earnings release, which is leading to the firm’s increase in stock value. Of course, the firm and investors must be wary of such results, as one good quarter may not indicate total success of the firm, as well as future success. However, it is a nice starting point to the firm’s eventual success.

Analysts expect NSTG  to report $-0.77 EPS on May, 3. They anticipate $0.10 EPS change or 11.49 % from last quarter’s $-0.87 EPS. After having $-0.34 EPS previously, NanoString Technologies’s analysts see 126.47 % EPS growth. The stock increased 3.34% or $0.31 during the last trading session, reaching $9.58. About 187,845 shares traded. The company has declined 64.95% since April 18, 2017 and is downtrending. It has underperformed the S&P500 by 76.50%.

However, in good news, on April 10th, NanoString Tech. announced the launch of the Breast Cancer 360™ (BC 360) research panel. The BC 360 Panel provides a unique 360 degree view of the tumor, microenvironment and immune response. The 770 gene expression panel includes comprehensive and expertly curated content across important breast cancer pathways and contains validated and novel signatures including NanoString’s PAM50 signature for breast cancer subtyping as well as the Tumor Inflammation Signature for determining whether a tumor is inflamed (“hot”) or non-inflamed (“cold”). The BC360 Panel is part of an expanding portfolio of comprehensive cancer research panels for the growing field of translational research and signature development.

“Breast cancer is a complex disease with many distinct subtypes, each having its own unique biology. While cancer research and drug development have historically focused on understanding the biology of the tumor itself, the field is moving toward a more holistic approach that goes beyond the tumor to examine

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Quick Win By the Algorithm: SMRT Outlook Improves, Stock Rallies Past $1 Point

Quick Win by the Algorithm: SMRT

[Source: Flikr]

“We are encouraged by the sales trend we saw in February and early March driven by very strong regular-priced selling, particularly in our warm weather and resort markets where spring selling begins. These leading indicators give us confidence that comparable sales trends will dramatically improve in the first quarter as spring regular-price selling builds in other markets. With improved first quarter comparable sales, our gross profit expansion and continued expense control, we expect first-half operating income in excess of $8 million, most of

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