Stock Market Prediction: Investment Crossroads in 2024

Sergey Okun  This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, and BMO paint a bright picture for the upcoming year.
  • BCA Research, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs hint at potential storm clouds gathering over the financial horizon.
  • The stock-picking AI of I Know First has a high signal on the one-year market trend forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

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GOOG Stock Forecast: A Tale of Thriving Revenue

Meiru ZhongThis GOOG Stock Forecast article was written by Meiru Zhong – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Alphabet earned revenue of US$76.7 billion, growing by 11% in Q3 2023 compared to Q3 2022. The operating income also grew by 24.6% to $21.3 billion because of strong demands for products and services and robust cost control.
  • Google advertising had grown by 9% to $59,647 million in Q3’23 compared to last year. The growth was primarily driven by the increase in the number of users’ engagement and the average amount charged for advertisers for each click in Google Search & other properties (including YouTube) and offset by the decrease in the number of impressions and the average amount charged for each impression in Google Network.
  • Alphabet's cost structure was robust, and its cost of revenue and operating costs had a stable proportion of the total revenue, about 44% and 29% respectively in Q3’23.
  • GOOG repurchased US$15.9 billion shares in the third quarter and invested $8.1 billion capital expenditure in technical infrastructure for business expansion, signaling managers’ strong confidence. 
  • DCF valued GOOG at $142, a 4% upside potential compared to $136.94 on November 18, 2023.

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NVDA Stock Forecast: Will the Company Powering OpenAI Keep Up the Pace?

Milana PapadopoulouThis NVDA Stock Forecast article was written by Milana Papadopoulou – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • NVIDIA’s shares soared nearly 260% in one year.
  • The company posted record earnings in Q2 2023 and is expected to top that in Q3.
  • However, DCF and comparable companies’ analysis suggests that the company may be overvalued.

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STRL Stock Forecast: Investing in Infrastructure in an Uncertain World

Zheman ZhongThis STRL Stock Forecast article was written by Zheman Zhong – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) operates diversely across the U.S., with proficiency in E-Infrastructure, Transportation, and Building Solutions. It boasts a commitment to sustainable operations known as The Sterling Way.
  • Financial analysis reveals STRL's significant cash reserve growth by 2021, paired with considerable debt accumulation, potentially from growth ventures or significant financial commitments.
  • STRL showcases robust financial metrics within the construction industry, with an impressive ROE of 25.62% and a ROA of 8.25%, both notably surpassing industry medians.
  • A comparative valuation with industry peers highlights STRL's mixed valuation metrics, with potential stock price growth projected in the near future, positioning it as an attractive consideration for investors.

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Adobe Stock Forecast: A Financial Titan in the Software Sector 

Zheman ZhongThis Adobe Stock Forecast article was written by Zheman Zhong – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Adobe's Financial Dominance: Adobe's revenue surged from $9.03 billion in 2018 to around $18.89 billion in the trailing twelve months, outperforming many in the software industry.
  • Firefly Generative AI Models: Adobe introduced Firefly, a cutting-edge generative AI tool, integrated into key platforms and promising a fresh revenue model through "Generative Credits".
  • Stock Performance and Dynamics: Over the year, Adobe's stock trended upward, though it experienced a dip in September, possibly linked to the Firefly AI Models' introduction.
  • Superiority in the Software Industry: Benchmarking against its peers, Adobe consistently showcases stellar financial metrics, cementing its leadership in the sector.

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Robo Advisors: Navigating the Future of Investment

Zheman ZhongThis Robo Advisors Analysis article was written by Zheman Zhong – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Robo-advisors, powered by advanced algorithms and machine learning, are transforming the investment management landscape by offering low-cost, efficient alternatives to traditional human advisors.
  • Hybrid models that combine both robo-advisors and human expertise are gaining popularity, indicating that many investors still value personalized guidance for complex financial decisions.
  • The robo-advisory industry is dominated by financial giants like Fidelity, Vanguard, and Charles Schwab, with independent platforms struggling for survival despite the sector managing close to $900 billion in assets as of 2022.
  • Younger demographics are more inclined to adopt robo-advisory services, with 31% of individuals aged 18-22 using these platforms, suggesting a future shift in the investment advisory landscape.
  • Robo-advisors pose unique challenges and risks, including regulatory accountability and data security, requiring a comprehensive, holistic risk management approach to navigate the complexities of the digital era.

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ASML Stock Forecast: A Monopoly with Higher Upside

Meiru ZhongThis ASML Stock Forecast article was written by Meiru Zhong – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • The increased sales of EUV and DUV were mainly driven by the strong demand of chipmakers due to digital transformation and chip shortage.
  • ASML is a monopoly on the manufacturing of EUV lithography machines and it has a strong pricing power that the price per EUV had increased by 22% to €176.1 million from 2020 to 2022.
  • ASML has a strong competitive position in the semiconductor industry, with low threats of rivals, new entrants, and substitutes, and low bargaining power of customers and suppliers. It has over 90% market share of the lithography market and 100% share of the EUV market.
  • EUV 0.55 NA, the next generation of the EUV system and promising engine of revenue growth, is expected to ship to customers for R&D purposes at the end of 2023 and support high-volume manufacturing by 2025. 
  • DCF Values ASML at $696, an upside potential of 4% compared with the stock price of $666.04 on September 6, 2023

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