Stock Market Predictions: I Know First Evaluation Report for AMAT – October 2019 Update

AMAT Stock Market Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the stock market predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the AMAT stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from the 1st January 2019 to 9th October 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our AMAT predictions in the stock market. This evaluation continues the series of algorithmic performance monitoring that I Know First research team conducts for Applied Materials Inc. stock.

amat stock predictions


  • 96% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period of AMAT predictions allowing our clients to invest their money with significant accuracy
  • Predictions consistently above 57% accurate despite extremely volatile market period for the world economy and US stock market, in particular

Note that the above results were obtained as a result of an evaluation conducted over the specific time period to give a presentation for the AMAT movements. The following report provides an extensive explanation of our methodology and detailed analysis of the performance metrics that we obtained during the evaluation. This report is a new I Know First evaluation series illustrating the ability to provide successful forecasting on AMAT.

About the I Know First Algorithm

stock market predictions

The I Know First self-learning algorithm analyses, models, and provides stock market predictions for the capital markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.

The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap with the predicted trend. Consequently, the trader can decide which direction to trade, when to enter the trade, and when to exit the trade. The model is 100% empirical, based only on factual data, thereby avoiding any biases or emotions that may accompany human assumptions. I Know First’s model only involves the human factor in building the mathematical framework and providing the initial set of inputs and outputs to the system. The algorithm produces a forecast with a signal and a predictability indicator. The signal is the number in the middle of the box. The predictability is the number at the bottom of the box. At the top, a specific asset is identified. This format is consistent across all predictions.

Our algorithm provides two independent indicators for the index – signal and predictability.

The signal is the predicted strength and direction of movement of the index. This is measured from –inf to +inf.

The predictability indicates our confidence in the signal. The predictability is a Pearson correlation coefficient relating to past algorithmic performance and actual market movement, measured from -1 to 1. You can find a detailed description of our heatmap here

The Hit Ratio Calculation

The hit ratio helps us to identify the accuracy of our algorithm’s predictions.

We predict the direction of movement of AMAT using our algorithm. Our predictions are then compared against actual movements of AMAT within the same time horizon.

The hit ratio is then calculated as follows:  

Stock Market Predictions in Spotlight: AMAT Predictions

Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) provides manufacturing equipment, services and software to the global semiconductor, display and related industries. The Company’s segments are Semiconductor Systems, which includes semiconductor capital equipment for etch, rapid thermal processing, deposition, chemical mechanical planarization, metrology and inspection, wafer packaging, and ion implantation; Applied Global Services, which provides integrated solutions to optimize equipment and fab performance and productivity; Display and Adjacent Markets, which includes products for manufacturing liquid crystal displays, organic light-emitting diodes, upgrades and roll-to-roll Web coating systems and other display technologies for televisions, personal computers, smart phones and other consumer-oriented devices, and Corporate and Other segment, which includes revenues from products, as well as costs of products sold for fabricating solar photovoltaic cells and modules, and certain operating expenses.

Evaluating the Stock Market Predictions Hit Ratio

stock market predictions

Through the results above, you can see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict the AMAT throughout various time periods. On average through 2019 year-to-date, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of hitting the AMAT’s exact movement 96% of the time for the 3-months prediction time horizon. This, in essence, means that the algorithm will be correct almost all the time on the 3-months time slot allowing our clients to make the safest investments. Additionally, to that, we can also predict the 3-day time horizon, 7-day time horizon, 14-day time horizon and one-month time horizon at 57%, 58%, 65% and 71% accuracy respectively. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing despite these quick and volatile time periods.


All in all, we at I Know First have a mission to provide our clients with the best information about the future. By sharpening our ability to predict the AMAT through our artificial intelligence system, we provide our clients with increasing certainty that their investment will be safer and more profitable. Within the bounds of certainty, we have consistently been able to find that we can predict the AMAT movements above 57% of the time over the last half year. The peak of that is the 96% hit ratio over the 3-months time slot rendering our services can predict the movement almost all the time on average.