Autodesk Stock Predictions: Autodesk Still Has Upside Potential Of Up to 100%

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First

ADSK Stock Predictions


  • Autodesk’s stock has risen more than 107% since my previous go-long recommendation for it last July 4, 2016.
  • I am again reiterating that ADSK is still worth buying right now.
  • Autodesk’s successful transition of its software products to the Software-as-a-Service business model means it will continue to dominate CAD and 3D design software.
  • Like Adobe’s experience, monthly/annual subscription-based software distribution is a great way to minimize the impact of software piracy.
  • My buy rating for ADSK is strongly supported by the algorithmic forecasts of I Know First.

Autodesk’s (ADSK) transition to a full-pledged SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) last year means its stock still has upside potential remaining. I know ADSK’s price has gone up 107% since my previous buy endorsement for it last July 2016. However, I opine that switching to full SaaS software distribution will keep boosting the stock of Autodesk. This assessment is based on Adobe’s (ADBE) phenomenal rise after it switched to subscription-only software distribution.

ADSK has outperformed my other software bets, Microsoft (MSFT) and Adobe, over the last 10 months. Microsoft and Adobe has been operating as SaaS for four years now. Autodesk is just starting its journey as a SaaS provider. ADSK therefore still has more room to grow.

(Source: Google Finance)

Adobe switched to subscription-only for its software last May 2013. Its stock price has appreciated +212% over the last four years. Adobe now has more than 9 million paying subscribers of Creative Cloud design software products. It is not farfetched to believe that Autodesk will also soon have millions of monthly/yearly paying customers for its CAD/CAM/3D design software products.

As of Q1 2017, Autodesk tout 3.29 million subscribers. Annual Recurring Revenue is now 90% of Autodesk’s revenue. I am therefore convinced that Autodesk was correct to shift to a SaaS business model. If the stock market helped triple the stock price of Adobe since its conversion to SaaS, Autodesk also deserves the same kind of loving treatment.

My 12-month projection is that ADSK will likely hit $125 price level. More engineers, draftsman, architects, product designers, and game designers will eventually replace their old boxed Autodesk software to get the latest versions. I expect Autodesk to end 2017 with 4 million subscribers. Two years from now Autodesk will likely have 6 million subscribers.

Why Subscription-only Software Distribution Is Superior

The more affordable month-to-month fees to use pricey software like Autocad 2017 is a big deterrent against piracy. Adobe and Autodesk software products used to be the most pirated PC and Mac programs. The old boxed version of AutoCAD 2013 retailed for 200,000 pesos ($5,000) here in the Philippines.

The high entry to owning AutoCAD is why many small and medium business used pirated copies. Software piracy is still rampant. Even the very affluent United States is the second-biggest contributor to the $52.2 billion lost in software piracy. My point is that Autodesk’s shift to subscription model greatly reduces its exposure to piracy since people no longer has to pay $5k upfront to use its software products.


Source: Revulytics

Now that Autodesk is offering AutoCAD 2017 for just $185 per month, even students, freelancers or home-based draftsmen can afford it. Autodesk’s old strategy of selling its software upfront for $2k-$10k is probably why 100% of the top 50 engineering schools in America use unlicensed software.

By coming up with a reasonable monthly plan for its industry-standard CAD/CAM software products, Autodesk encourages people to use original software.

The less people using pirated copies of AutoCAD software, the better it is for Autodesk.


For those who have not yet done so, going long on ADSK right now is still a worthwhile bet. Autodesk’s stock will continue to rise in price over the next two or three years. I predict that Autodesk will continue to add 200k or more in new subscribers for each succeeding quarter within the next two years.

The short and long-term algorithmic forecasts are also favorable that ADSK will pop up within the next 12 months. The one-year market trend score of ADSK is very high, +249.09. The Artificial Intelligence neural network of I Know First are very confident that ADSK is a strong Buy right now.

My buy rating for ADSK is also echoed by its encouraging technical indicators and moving averages.

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm. This allows users to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

Past I Know First Success With ADSK

I Know First has been bullish on ADSK shares in past forecasts. On September 4, 2016, an I Know First Analyst released a bullish article for ADSK. Autodesk has changed its business strategy to subscription-only software licensing/selling. As a result, the company has benefited from strong growth in subscribers and sales. Its dominance in the 2D/3D Cad software is another reason to be bullish of the stock. Since the forecast’s release, ADSK shares have gained 66.96%. See chart below.

This bullish forecast for FB was sent to I Know First subscribers on September 2, 2016. To subscribe today click here.