The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First. 

Glu Mobile Stock Prediction

Summary:

• My last article over Glu Mobile was published last August 27. The company’s stock has since returned +11.57%.
• It was the bullish forecasts of I Know First that made the correct call on GLUU.
• I was neutral on GLUU months ago but now I see why Artificial Intelligence-based stock picking is very important to me. I regret missing the boat on GLUU.
• Glu Mobile has a new mobile game that involves shooting zombies and raiding other human players’ bases. I think it could be a commercial hit.
• Last Day Alive is Glu Mobile’s latest mobile game that took inspiration from the very popular The Walking Dead TV series. It should appeal to millions of mobile gamers.

I was wrong not to heed the bullish algorithmic forecasts of I Know First for Glu Mobile (GLUU). My last GLUU article was published last August 27 and the stock has since shot up by +11.57%. I could have made a tidy sum if I went long GLUU nine weeks ago. Congratulations to the people who went long GLUU last December or January. Glu Mobile’s stock touts a YTD gain of +93.81%. I really missed the boat on this one.

(Source: Google Finance)

The moral lesson I learned now is to trust and bet on I Know First’s algorithmic forecasts more often. I was wrong to say last year that lack of new hit games made Glu Mobile a short candidate. Glu Mobile actually launched two new interesting games this year. Glu soft launced a called Car Town Racing last June. It also soft launched Last Day Alive in July. I am betting now that the The Walking Dead-inspired Last Day Alive could become a hit after it gets out of soft-launch or beta testing status.

‘Last Day Alive’ Is Very Promising

I am a gamer since 1996. Believe me when I say that Glu’s latest game in beta testing, Last Day Alive has a good chance to be a hit franchise like Glu Mobile’s series of Deer Hunter mobile games. Last Day Alive’s gameplay took a lot of inspiration from the hit The Walking Dead TV series. It requires you to kill gazillions of zombies, collect and upgrade different kinds of weapons, and build/defend a home base.

(Source Glu Mobile)

It also allows you to raid other human players’ bases to loot for food, items, and weapons. This aspect alone makes it very attractive to mobile gamers who like player-versus-player combat. It is a good stress buster to level up your account in Last Day Alive so you have more powerful weapons to continuously raid and steal another player’s food and stored items.

The raiding theme/concept is why The Walking Dead TV series is also the highest-rated show on Earth. It appeals to the ancient hunter-killer instinct of humans. My guesstimate is that Last Day Alive can contribute $2 to $10 million in monthly bookings next year. Glu Mobile only needs to properly market this new game through TV ads and mobile/online ad placements.

Last Day Alive could become a sure commercial hit if Glu Mobile hires Norman Reedus (actor who plays Daryl in The Walking Dead) to promote it. If not, Andrew Lincoln (who plays Rick Grimes). Daryl and Rick are definitely the most famous actors in The Walking Dead. They have millions of loyal fans which could be steered toward downloading Last Day Alive.

I Hope Glu Mobile Has Learn To Better Secure Its Mobile Games

Glu Mobile only needs to secure its mobile games code so that Android hackers won’t be making modified APKs (Android Package Kits). Like all other Android game developers, Glu Mobile needs better encryption of their Android games because hacked APK installers allow smart players to get premium items and virtual currencies without actually spending real dollars on in-app purchases.

Without better encryption/code obfuscation, Glu Mobile’s new games will again fall prey to the rampant piracy of Android apps. It is true that Android is more vulnerable to iOS because Apple (AAPL) has a closed-sourced ecosystem. However, Glu Mobile cannot afford to release its games exclusively for the iOS platform. There are more than 2 billion Android devices. Mobile gamers own hundreds of millions of them.

Addressing the app piracy in Android can only be done through better software security and outright banning of players who use modified APK installers. Banning cheating players is not the best long-term solution though. I hope Glu Mobile invests more on improving the security of its mobile games.

Conclusion

I have to rate GLUU as a buy now. I Know First still has positive near and long-term algorithmic forecasts for GLUU. It signifies that the deep learning neural network of I Know First still see probable upside potential for GLUU. Let us not forget that Glu Mobile might become the publisher of the Arena of Valor in North America and Europe. Arena of Valor of Tencent’s English version of its world top-grossing Chinese MOBA mobile game, Honor of Kings.

Analysis of monthly technical indicators and monthly moving averages also favor going long on Glu Mobile right now.

Past I Know First accurate bullish forecast for GLUU was sent to I Know First subscribers on August 27th, 2017. To subscribe today click here.

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm. This allows users to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.