Why Stocks Are So Hard To Predict?

Yu YaoThis article about Why Stocks Are So Hard To Predict was written by Justin Cohen – Financial Analyst at I Know First


  • Stocks and the Overall Market are Often Difficult to Predict.
  • Two Vastly Different Forecasts for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA).
  • Using I Know First – AI Predictive Algorithm for Stock Picking

The Market Has Always Been Hard to Predict

Despite recent uncertainties in the markets in the past few months, the stock market has always been full of unpredictability. It is often difficult for experts to properly gauge the direction of particular stocks or the market as a whole.

Following the close of the first half of the fiscal year, firms have begun to make recommendations for the upcoming quarters, the half, and beyond. Some of the world’s largest investment banks have differing opinions on stock performance.

JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank Have Opposite Outlooks for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)

Source: CNBC

An example of such a difference of opinion can be seen in the forecasting for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), as banking giants JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank have provided vastly different outlooks.

JPMorgan has highlighted continued production setbacks, partially caused by shutdowns in China and partially caused by existing production issues in the other plants in Germany and the United States. They estimate that there is potential for TSLA stock to continue to plummet by another 40%. In an almost 180° view, Deutsche Bank sees the prospective for TSLA stock to rise back above $1,100. Deutsche Bank sees the dip in price as an exceptional opportunity for investors to buy stock in the world’s largest EV company.

I Know First AI Predictive Algorithm for Stock Picking

Hard to predict

Although there is a great deal of uncertainty in the markets, with investment firms giving vastly different forecasts, using I Know First’s AI predictive algorithm can take some of the uncertainty out of the equation. While traditional systems rely on human judgement filled with biases, AI predictive algorithms develop comprehensive forecasts based on a variety of variables with inputs sourced from decades of real market performance data.

The I Know First self-learning algorithm analyzes, models, and predicts the stock market. The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.

The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap the trend. This helps the trader to decide which direction to trade, at what point to enter the trade, and when to exit. Since the model is 100% empirical, the results are based only on factual data, thereby avoiding any biases or emotions that may accompany human derived assumptions.


The high uncertainty in the markets in the past few months has shown that even the world’s largest investment banks have differing opinions on stock performance. The stock market has always been full of unpredictability, therefore there is a need for a different input to analyze stock performances.

I Know First provides a wide range of forecast packages for different stock universes based on our AI-powered algorithm to help our customers to identify the most promising investment opportunities for the market as a whole.

I Know First Premium article

To subscribe today click here.

Please note-for trading decisions and use the most recent forecast.