Stock Market Forecast: Two Recovery Signals Based On Algorithms Part 2 (Australia, New Zealand, Asia)
By Lipa Roitman Ph.D
March 18 2013
First series of recovery signals
As I mentioned in the Part1 article the I Know First algorithms showed last November strong signs of upcoming market recovery. The signs were all over the world: USA, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Hong Kong, India. The signals came in two waves: After the mid-November lows most of the world indices have shown the first series of up signals in the second half of November. And the market went up in two pushes, making a pause the end of December. They resumed a push in January.
A second series of recovery signals
The strong up signals returned mid February, after two sets of down signals at the first week of February, and the second series of I Know First algorithm signals were mostly stronger than the first ones. The up signals were of different relative strengths, but consistently positive.
Not all markets behaved the same: New Zealand and especially India, gave back some of the gains in February, while showing increasing up signals.
Signals strength and consistency.
The importance of the up signals was amplified by their consistency across many markets. They appeared simultaneously in many leading stocks and the world and sector indices. Green color (up signals) has been the predominant color of I Know First forecast tables ever since November 2012.
About the charts below:
Each point on these charts was taken from the actual daily forecast published the morning before the next market open. Each forecast contains six different time horizon forecasts, from three days ahead to one year ahead. The charts show the actual price in thick blue. The positive or negative (Up or Down) signals of the forecast were added to the actual last known price at the time of forecast to result in signal lines. Thus, when the signal line is above the actual line, it means "buy," if below, it means "sell". The green and red arrows show what would be the best times to enter the market. The widely ranging signals are scaled relative to the previous average signal range to bring them into manageable scale to fit them all in one chart. The green and red arrows show what would be the best times to enter the market.
Australia
Australia AORD Index up 18% from November lows, following the up signals in November through the beginning of December. In February another group of up signals appeared.
New Zealand:
New Zealand: NZ 50 Index, up 11.7% , following the up signals in November through the first half of December and another group of up signals in February.
Indonesia:
Indonesia: JKSE composite index up 12.6%., after the previously down signals reversed to up signals towards the end of November through the beginning of December. In February another group of strong up signals appeared.
Japan
But the real winner was Japan Nikkei 225 Index, up the staggering 42% since November lows, following the up signals in November through January. In February another group of strong up signals appeared. All this period was accompanied by up signals in all time ranges, first weak, then stronger up.
China:
China Shanghai SSE 180 Index showed an up signal in the second half of November, followed by a rise of 12 percent to a peak in February. The second up signal is yet to materialize.
Hong Kong HANG SENG HSI Index
HSI showed mixed, mainly up signals in November. It rose 12.8 percent by the end of January, but then started declining. It only began showing consistent up signals recently.
India:
India’s BSESN Index went up in November-January, following strong up signals. In February it gave up all the previous gains, but is showing strong up signals since, that have partially realized by now..
India’s BSESN Index went up in November-January, following strong up signals. In February it gave up all the previous gains, but is showing strong up signals since, that have partially realized by now..
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