Stock Market Forecast: Recovery Signals Based On Algorithms Part 4 (Europe)

 

By Lipa Roitman Ph.D

March 19 2013
 

Global Recovery as Seen by I KNOW FIRST Algorithms

Part 4. Europe Indices
First series of recovery signals
As I mentioned in the Part1 article the I Know First algorithms showed last November strong signs of upcoming market recovery. The signs were all over the world: USA, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Hong Kong, India and Latin America. The signals came in two waves: After the mid-November lows most of the world indices have shown the first series of up signals in the second half of November. And the market went up in two pushes, making a pause the end of December. They resumed a push in January.
 
A second series of recovery signals
The strong up signals returned in February, and the second series of I Know First algorithm signals were mostly stronger than the first ones. The up signals were of different relative strengths, but consistently positive.
 
Signals strength and consistency.
The importance of the up signals was amplified by their consistency across many markets. They appeared simultaneously in many leading stocks and the world and sector indices. Green color (up signals) has been the predominant color of I Know First forecast tables ever since November 2012.
 
 
About the charts below:
Each point on these charts was taken from the actual daily forecast published the morning before the next market open. Each forecast contains six different time horizon forecasts, from three days ahead to one year ahead. The charts show the actual price in thick blue. The positive or negative (Up or Down) signals of the forecast were added to the actual last known price at the time of forecast to result in signal lines. Thus, when the signal line is above the actual line, it means "buy," if below, it means "sell". The green and red arrows show what would be the best times to enter the market. The widely ranging signals are scaled relative to the previous average signal range to bring them into manageable scale to fit them all in one chart. The green and red arrows show what would be the best times to enter the market.
Europe Indices:
AEX forecast: Amsterdam AEX has risen almost 10 percent since the November lows. The chart below shows that the signals were in November through December, followed by January S&P500 rise. The second set of signals was in February, followed by the end of the February rise after an intermediate dip.
DAX forecast: German DAX (^GDAXI) has risen 14.8 percent since the November lows. The chart below shows that the signals were in November through December, followed by January rise. The second set of signals was in February, followed by the end of February rise. 
Stock market forecast DAX

IBEX forecast: Spain IBEX 35 market  up 12.7% after dropping since the end of January highs

Stock market IBEX

 

 

ISEQ forecast: Ireland ISEQ up 21% in a smooth run up, with up signals along the way.

Stock market forecast ISEQ

 

 

OMX forecast: Sweden OMX index went up 18.6%. Unlike the other indices, it showed up signals most of this time November, December, and the end of January. The upward path was almost a straight line.
Stock market forecast Sweden
CAC forecast: France CAC 40 (FCHI) Index went up 15.8% since the November low, after correction in Mid February. 
Stock market forecast CAC

Read more:
Part 1
Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

 

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