First Solar’s stock price increased 20% in March of 2014 after the company offered analysts promising full-year financial guidance. After that point, the stock hovered around $60 to $70 until September, when it fell back to roughly the same price it was before the announcement. Many analysts believed this was a good time to buy the stock, priced close to $50 on November 28^th, believing that it would climb to as high as $87. At that time, I Know First published an article on Seeking Alpha recommending that investors either exit their positions in the stock or not initiate one in the first place.

First Solar, Inc manufactures and sells photovoltaic solar modules with an advanced thin-film semiconductor technology, and it designs, constructs, and sells PV solar power systems. Solar stocks faced some significant headwinds in 2014, as oil prices have fallen drastically. Since the article was posted on November 29^th, the stock has fallen another 16.1%.

The prediction above was made on November 28^th, 2014, for the one-month time horizon. The algorithm gave First Solar a signal strength of -1.78, indicating it believed that the stock price would decrease over the time-period. The second figure is the predictability, which indicates the historical correlation between the prediction and the actual market movement, or basically how important the signal strength is. A positive predictability indicator means the signal is more important. In accordance with the algorithm, the stock price decreased 9.14% over the one-month time horizon.

The algorithm also made a prediction for the 1-year time horizon. In this case, the signal strength is -7.55 and the predictability indicator is 0.2. In the article, I Know First suggested not holding any position in this stock, as the signal strength was not very strong.

The energy sector experienced volatility in 2014 and will likely do so again in 2015 due to falling oil prices. First Solar is also facing issues over decelerating growth in the United States for solar panel installations, a shift to more residential installations vs. commercial installations (where First Solar is focused), and are spending money to expand in emerging markets. These factors make First Solar a stock to avoid in 2015. To find better opportunities for investment in the energy market, click here.