As shares of Apple (AAPL) hit all-time highs ahead of the company’s iPhone 5 launch, Apple recently became the most valuable company in history when not accounting for inflation.
How might the unveiling of the iPhone 5 impact Apple’s stock? To buy or to sell? Germany-based statistics company Statista put together a series of charts for Mashable outlining exactly how shares of Apple have performed in the days leading up to and following recent high-profile product launches, and the data is intriguing. The firm’s full infographic follows below.

Source:  Mashable

Apple stock forecast: What is Apple’s stock predictability today?
The predictability is the historical correlation between the prediction and the actual market move for that particular market. 
The Predictability P, ranges theoretically between minus 1 to plus 1.
This metric is an adaptation of the Pearson correlation coefficient. Negative P means the actual market move was the opposite of the prediction. Zero P means no correlation between the prediction and the actual market move. P=1 means perfect correlation between actual market movement and its predicted change. Any value of P above zero means positive predictability, the higher the better. Zero P means no correlation between the predicted and actual market movement. Negative P means the actual market movement was against prediction. For stocks we monitor and predict the Predictability P ranges generally between P=0.2 and P=0.7.

Apple stock predictability before The new iPad launch:
Apple stock predictability before the new iPad was around 0.35 (the range is -1 to +1),

Apple stock predictability before The iPhone 5 launch:

Apple stock predictability today is 0.3 (the range is -1 to +1),
Apple predictability is in the downward trend and the level of uncertainty today is higher relativity to the previous launch.

Apple stock forecast for this week. 

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