Stock Market Forecast: As the year wraps up, I’ve been reflecting on the plethora of Premium Articles our team at I Know First has crafted. And let me tell you, the results are pretty impressive.

Stock Market Forecast: How We Choose Our Premium Article Stock Recommendations

The tickers for our articles are carefully chosen by a combination of our analysts’ qualitative research, as well as the quantitative advice of our machine learning algorithm.

Our advanced AI-driven system delivers two key insights for traders: a clear signal predicting whether a stock’s price will rise or fall, and a confidence level indicating how certain the prediction is. Additionally, this streamlined approach, powered by a blend of neural networks and genetic algorithms, continuously evolves, adapting to market changes for more accurate forecasts.

When the algorithm is particularly confident, our analysts take a closer look, and research the company and its metrics to see if human judgement backs the algorithm. When the two are in agreement, we publish our findings for our readers.

Well? How Did Our Premium Articles Do?

Let’s get down to brass tacks. What would be your return if you invested $1, according to our recommendation in our Premium Articles in 2023? Consider this: a stock we endorsed in early January, SAIA, soared from $210.86 to $438.22 by year’s end. In short, that’s a 107.83% increase!

We released 36 Premium Articles over the course of 2023, each one highlighting a stock on which we particularly took a buy side. To estimate our performance, we calculate a time-weighted rate of return, assuming an equal-weighted portfolio for all our recommendations in 2023. We use a time-weighted rate of return because it is the compound rate of growth of one unit of currency invested in a portfolio during a stated measurement period—a measure of investment performance that is not sensitive to the timing and amount of withdrawals or additions to the portfolio.

Overall, following our advice throughout the year would have turned each $1 into $2.08 – a stunning 107.92% gain in terms of a time-weighted rate of return when the S&P 500 provided a 23.80% return for the same period.

Also, consider another way to look at our performance. Assume that you invested $1.00 in each stock on the days when we published our articles. So, your $36 (the number of articles we published) turns into $44.71 at the end of 2023, giving you a 24.19% return. According to the same logic, if you invested $1 into the S&P 500 on the days when we published our articles, you would have received $39.55 or a 9.87% return.

Is Our Performance Reliable?

As mentioned earlier, each $1 invested at the beginning of 2023 generates a 107.92% return. However, we are aware that the fundamental principle of investments is that return is inherently linked with risk. The IKF premium articles portfolio’s exposure to the S&P 500 is 1.59, making investments in our portfolio riskier (more volatile) than investments in the S&P 500 as a whole. Furthermore, the system risk, originating from the overall economy, accounts for 61%, while the individual risk, stemming from selected companies, constitutes 39%.

So, the IKF article portfolio assumes more risk, allowing us to generate higher returns. But how efficient are we in using a unit of risk in our portfolio compared to our benchmark? To find an answer to this question, we need to examine the Sharpe and Information ratios. The Sharpe ratio indicates how much excess return we are receiving for the additional volatility (risk) we are taking compared to a risk-free investment. The Sharpe ratio for the IKF premium article portfolio is 3.91, significantly higher than the S&P 500 Sharpe ratio of 1.52 in 2023 (we use the risk-free rate of 3.96% for Sharpe ratio estimation). Now, let’s look at the Information ratio to assess how well the IKF premium article portfolio has performed relative to our benchmark, considering both return and tracking error. The IKF premium article portfolio has a significantly high information ratio of 4.60 (note that the rule of thumb tells us that a good information ratio starts at 0.5).

Finally, we must consider the randomness of our outcomes within the world we inhabit—a world governed by probability. Consequently, we need to be adept at assessing the results of our decisions, considering both our skills and our luck. Let’s ponder the following questions:

1. Is the IKF premium articles portfolio return positive? We aim to assess the probability that, on average, our portfolio consistency has generated positive returns in 2023, or whether there were days when luck played a role in achieving a favorable final return.
2. Did the IKF premium articles portfolio consistently outperform the S&P 500 on a daily average basis in 2023?

We conducted a one-tailed statistical test, yielding p-values of 0.21% and 3.29% for these questions, respectively. These values provide a high degree of probability to reject the hypothesis about luck. With probabilities of 99.79% and 96.71%, we can confidently conclude that it was not merely accidental that the IKF portfolio’s articles generated such an impressive return in 2023.

Don’t Believe Me? Check our Premium Articles for Yourself

Here’s a transparent look at all 36 Premium Articles we released in 2023, in detail, complete with the initial and current stock prices. Obviously, not all of them can be winners, but those that rose, rose a lot, and those that fell, didn’t fall by much.

Article	Date Published	Stock Price On That Day	Stock Price on December 29
SAIA Stock Forecast	January 4	$210.86	$391.50
CDNS Stock Forecast	January 23	$183.41	$259.93
GRBK Stock Forecast:	January 30	$29.61	$50.95
MSFT Stock Forecast	February 6	$256.77	$373.04
URI Stock Forecast	February 16	$462.02	$495.06
NVDA Stock Forecast	February 20	$206.55	$475.06
HOV Stock Forecast	March 29	$65.09	$139.01
BLDR Stock Forecast	April 5	$85.96	$147.70
GME Stock Forecast	April 24	$19.93	$15.55
TSM Stock Forecast	June 5	$98.05	$100.35
NVDA Stock Forecast	June 12	$394.82	$475.06
TSLA Stock Forecast	June 19	$274.45	$243.84
AAPL Stock Forecast	June 19	$185.01	$195.71
SHOP Stock Forecast	June 26	$63.25	$72.52
GOOGL Stock Forecast	June 28	$120.18	$134.99
HUT Stock Forecast	July 4	$3.66	$10.25
AVGO Stock Forecast	July 12	$889.95	$944.30
MRVL Stock Forecast	July 18	$65.76	$52.88
AMAT Stock Forecast	July 20	$134.04	$147.72
BZH Stock Forecast	July 30	$33.63	$29.88
META Stock Forecast	August 14	$306.19	$332.75
SWAV Stock Forecast	August 14	$229.84	$174.20
CPRI Stock Forecast	August 28	$52.38	$48.44
ASML Stock Forecast	September 7	$637.79	$696.43
MHO Stock Forecast	September 25	$86.63	$114.73
ABNB Stock Forecast	October 9	$127.77	$140.68
CHTR Stock Forecast	October 23	$430.27	$367.55
STRL Stock Forecast	October 31	$72.85	$69.49
NVDA Stock Forecast:	November 8	$465.74	$475.06
GOOG Stock Forecast	November 20	$137.92	$136.64
AMAT Stock Forecast	November 20	$152.57	$147.72
TSLA Forecast	November 27	$236.08	$243.84
META Stock Forecast	December 6	$317.45	$332.75
NFLX Stock Forecast	December 11	$459.89	$486.88
V Stock Forecast	December 18	$258.37	$260.35
AMD Stock Forecast	December 25	$143.41	$147.41

Why Does I Know First Give This Information Out for Free?

Stock Market Forecast: So, why do we give away such valuable information? Basically, we believe that quantitative trading shouldn’t be an exclusive Wall Street privilege. All the data you need for smart trades is out there – subsequently, you just need to know where to look. Additionally, our paid subscriptions take things to the next level, turning a 107.92% yearly profit into child’s play. Indeed, we’re committed to providing our clients with strategies that really pay off.

We work tirelessly to go above and beyond for our clients, not only sending out our predictions but also offering personalized investment strategies.

Besides, we can make a 23.50% profit in only two weeks.

We did just last week, on December 7, 2023. Our algorithm predicted its Top 10 Stocks for the next 14 days, and that prediction was then sent out to subscribers who paid a monthly fee. Anybody who invested equally in all ten stocks made a 23.50% profit over the next 14 days.

Stock Market Forecast: A Show of Good Faith

Stock Market Forecast: During our webinars, we are frequently met with skepticism: why should investors trust I Know First with their money? Do we cherry-pick our successful forecasts? How can I see firsthand that you know what you’re talking about before trusting you with my paycheck?

Some quick answers: Because leading hedge funds, banks, and family offices do. No, every single stock market forecast is published on our website after the fact. Just look up a date, and a specific forecast, and it will be there. And, because we demonstrate the capabilities of our algorithm, time and again.

We understand that taking investment advice requires a lot of trust, which is in part why we release these articles. Our analysts work tirelessly to provide our readers with qualitative knowledge to back up our quantitative analyses. While your only takeaway from this may be a desire to see more of our articles, we hope that this show of good faith will provide you with trust: in us, in our algorithm, and in your ability to make smart investments with our help. If you’d like to join us in considering a 107.92% yearly profit as a simple pocket change, then join the I Know First community and make that amount in a few short weeks.