The National Bank Of Greece: A Risk Worth Taking


  • The stock is at an attractive point due to promising financials and a price which reflects strong market under-optimism.NBG
  • The upcoming elections is a strong downside risk; however, facing against more probable upside pressure it the stock appears bullish.
  • Algorithmic analysis forecasts NGB as the strongest bank growth stock in 2015; however, the risk might be too much for investors to bear.

Generally at I Know First, we don’t write about stocks which have such a high downside risk; however, our signal for NGB is just too strong to ignore. The National Bank of Greece (NYSEMKT:NGB) stands as the largest bank in Greece in terms of assets, and third largest in terms of market capitalization.

An Algorithmic Perspective on NGB

The signal indicator of 1900 in the 1 year time horizon is indicative of direction and strength. Such a high signal suggests a very fast increase in price, even farther supported by the strong 1 month signal of 623. Our historical indicator, the predictability, suggests that historically the asset has been unpredictable; however, at these high signal levels looking at historical performance indicators is an unprofitable long term strategy. Enough indicators are pointing in the right direction.

  1. The banks financials are in the right direction.
  2. The nation’s economic outlook is in the right direction.
  3. The stock is aggressively oversold.
  4. The algorithms signal is very high.

In comparison to the downside risks, which are:

  1. SYRIZA has to be elected.
  2. And, they decide to immediately default on their payments and leave the eurozone.
  3. And, the eurozone does not concede and lift some of the austerity measures set on Greece.

All three have to hold true for the downside risk to outweigh the upside potential. However; purely in terms of expected value, the stock is Bullish in the short, medium and long term.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha