Modeling Volatility with TGARCH

Sergey Okun  This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.


  • Volatility has a number of statistical properties that must be taken into account in the modeling process.
  • The TGARCH model is one of the GARCH family models which allows for modeling volatility.
  • I Know First provides volatility predictions for short-term and long-term periods based on the machine learning approach.

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Winning Stock Forecast: NUGT And VXX Returns Up to 15.95% and 14.43%

Winning Stock Forecast: NUGT And VXX Performers In ETF Package


On December 20th, 2018, I Know First’s top stock predicting algorithm conducted it’s 7-Day World ETFs Package Forecast.

The full ETFs Package includes a daily forecast for a total of 20 ETFs with bullish and bearish signals. This package contains top 10 picks for the long, and top 10 picks for the short position, which are determined by screening our database daily using our advanced algorithm and selecting those with the highest predictability and signal.

In our winning stock forecast, we have the two most noteworthy performers of this particular forecast: VXX and NUGT both for the long position.

The package itself, had an overall average return of 4.94%, in the long position, providing a premium of 5.66% over the SP500’s return of -0.72%. With regards to the short position, the package had an overall average performance of 2.11%, providing investors with a premium of 2.83% over S&P500’s return of -0.72%.

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