I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: July 13th, 2020


I Know First Weekly Newsletter
Investment Selection Using AI Predictive Algorithm
July 13, 2020

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Microsoft Stock Forecast: Cash Out Your Huge Profit on Microsoft

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Microsoft’s stock was trading below $160 when I made my April 6 buy recommendation. I also gave it a price target of $205.
  • MSFT’s closing price last July 2 was $206.26 and its new record-setting 52-week high is 208.02.
  • A price return of more than 28% in two months is enough. Let us not be too greedy. Take your profit on Microsoft before the market takes it away.
  • The YTD gain of MSFT is now 29.80%. The stock is now fairly valued. I don’t think MSFT will do another +28% movement for the rest of 2020.
  • Microsoft’s decision to shutdown its retail stores and Mixer are commendable. It will help improve profitability.

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ACLS Stock: Axcelsis Deserves A Price Target of $33

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Axcelsis Technologies, Inc. is an under-the-radar important player in the $415.1 billion semiconductor industry.
  • Axcelsis supplies ion implanters and other processing equipment to semiconductor products manufacturers. This niche role helped Axcelsis achieved a 11.45% 5-year revenue CAGR.
  • The stock of Axcelsis has 3-month price return of +34.87%. I’m still endorsing it as a buy. My 1-year price target for this stock is $33.
  • Axcelsis has been profitable for the last five years. Its total cash is $174.7 million. This is much higher than Axcelsis’ total debt of $54.1 million.
  • Monthly technical indicators and moving averages are saying ACLS is still a buy.

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MRVL Stock Predictions: Beautiful Growth Stories and a Bullish Outlook for MRVL

Chloe PengThe article was written by Chloe Peng, Analyst at I Know First., Master of Science of Finance candidate at Brandeis University.

Summary:

  • Marvell recovered from COVID-19 impact quickly and doubled its stock price since mid-March 2020, with earnings beating estimations.
  • Marvell ‘s partnership with Samsung and Nokia grants it with great opportunities in 5G market and strong growth potentials.
  • According to the DCF model, the fair value of MRVL stock should be 61% higher than its current price. Thus, I have a bullish outlook for MRVL in 2020.

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Best Tech Stocks Performance Report By I Know First Evaluation

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the results of live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for Big Tech Stocks. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied to pick the best-performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The period under evaluation is from 21st November 2018 to 26th January 2020. The corresponding returns distribution of stock filters for Big Tech stock universe are shown below:

Figure 1: Average Returns Per Time Horizon - Short Term

Big Tech Stock Package Highlights:

  • Both Top 10 and Top 5 signals surpass the 24% mark in the one-year time horizon
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns improvement with the time horizon increase for both Top 10 and Top 5 stocks
  • Both Top 10 and Top 5 stocks consistently out-perform the benchmark

The above results were obtained based on forecasts’ evaluation over the specific time period using a consecutive filtering approach – by predictability, then by signal, to give an overview of the forecasting capabilities of the algorithm for the specific stock universe.

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ADBE Stock Predictions: I Know First Stock Forecasts Evaluation Report

Adobe Stock Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of the stock market predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for ADBE stock with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 13 August 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our ADBE predictions in the stock market.

Highlights:

  • 86% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period for ADBE predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 52% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

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I Know First Evaluation Report For The Tech Giants Stocks Package

Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to present the results of live forecast performance evaluation for I Know First AI Algorithm, specifically for Tech Giants Stocks. The following results were observed when signal and predictability filters were applied in order to pick the best performing stocks out of the most predictable ones. The period under evaluation is from 1st January 2019 to 21st July 2019. The corresponding returns distribution of stock filters for Tech Giants stock universe are below:

Figure 1: Average Returns Per Time Horizon

Tech Giants Stock Package Highlights:

  • The highest return of 3.00% came from stocks with Top 10 Signals on 1-month investment horizon
  • There is a clear increasing trend for returns improvement with the time horizon increase for both Top 10 and Top 5 stocks
  • Top 10 stocks consistently out-perform the benchmark

The above results were obtained based on forecasts’ evaluation over the specific time period using  consecutive filtering approach – by predictability, then by signal, to give an overview of the forecasting capabilities of the algorithm for specific stock universe.

Microsoft Stock Forecast: Why On-Premise Office 2019 Is Still Important For Microsoft

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary:

  • I will upgrade my Office 2016 to the new 2019 version once Microsoft launches the home version. Office 2019 is currently only available for business users.
  • There are hundreds of millions like me who prefer the offline version of Microsoft’s productivity suite.
  • Microsoft will keep on updating its on premise Office suite because Office 365 is not going to reach 300 million active users anytime soon.
  • As of October 2018, there are only more than 135 million active commercial users of Office 365. This is in spite of its platform-agnostic design.
  • Businesses and ordinary Office users who do not rely too much on online collaboration will find it smarter to just a perpetual license for Office 2019.
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