Winning AMD & PTLA Forecast

Three months ago, I Know First’s predictive algorithm conducted a forecast that would predict the success of the top stock picks of both bullish and bearish positions. For the long positions, the largest growth was registered by AMD with a return of 61.74%. The package itself which consisted of 5 overall picks in the long position, had an overall average return of 19.20%, providing a premium of 14.68% over the SP500’s return of 4.52%. The best performance in the short position came from PTLA which registered a return of 40.77%. With regards to the forecasted stocks at the short position (which also consisted of a total of 5), the package had an overall average return of 25.37%, providing investors with a premium of 20.85% over S&P500’s return of 4.52%. The I Know First algorithm accurately forecasted 3 out of 5 stocks, for the long position, and 5 out of 5 stocks for the short position for this 3 Month Forecast period.

Winning Long (AMD)

(Source: Flickr, amd)

The top earner of the 3 Month Forecast in the Long Position was AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) with returns of 61.74% over 3 months. The stock has been having notable success over the past 6 months. I Know First’s algorithm was the first to predict the incline which started around May. The algorithm also predicted that it would keep growing at the consistent rate that it has in the daily, weekly and monthly forecast and has consequently been the Winning Forecast several times in the past months*. Although market shares recently took a small dip $26 with the fear that Intel is going to reinsert itself as the dominate one with near completion of the new 10 nanometer chip. The fact is AMD’s stock has soared 1,400% over the past three years and CEO Lisa Su’s revival of the almost doomed company may have played a huge role. AMD has had a hold on all the GPU markets. This includes client CPUs, server CPUs, and GPUs for data centers and gamers. This means that competitor Intel’s past dominance may be putting a scare into shareholders, but one should realize that the GPU market today isn’t necessarily what it was many years ago. Not to mention that the new leadership and success of Lisa Su surely effects the variables in that equation. On top of that all, the GPU market and the growing demand for GPU with accelerating growth in fields such as AI, gaming, self-driving cars, etc. leaves a lot more room for both companies to earn, more so than what the past may reveal.

Winning Short (PTLA)

(Source: Flickr, Rudolf Vlček)

The top performing pick at the Short Position was Portola Pharmaceuticals (PTLA). The 3 month forecast that began in July predicted that the company that was steady for some time would start to see a decline. In conjunction with the algorithm’s prediction, the stock did just that in August and proceeded the decline through early October. Portola Pharmaceutical’s main revenue comes from their 2 anti coagulants, Andexxa and Bevyxxa. The 2nd quarter earning’s for PTLA were only $4 million, falling shorts to the analyst’s $6 million. Andexxa brought in $2.2 million, Bevyxxa $33,000 and the remaining $1.7 million came in payments from collaborators. Sales were silenced next to spending in support of the company’s commercial drug launches. Expenses totaled $107.7 million in Q2, up from $69.6 million in the same quarter last year, resulting in losses of up to $100 million. It is also notable that CEO Bill Lis and CFO Tao Fu have both left Portola in recent months, with the CEO position only being recently filled by Scott Garland as of Sep 20th. Garland’s experience comes in building commercial franchises, which is what PTLA attempted to grow in to.

The 3 Month Forecast

This chart shows the algorithmic forecast made on these 10 stocks 3 months ago, and the results of the forecast to the right of it.

Current I Know First subscribers received this bullish & bearish forecast on July 8th, 2018.

To subscribe today click here.

Algorithmic traders utilize these daily forecasts by the I Know First market prediction system as a tool to enhance portfolio performance, verify their own analysis and act on market opportunities faster.

How to interpret this diagram

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) operates as a semiconductor company worldwide. It operates in two segments, Computing and Graphics; and Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom. The company’s products include x86 microprocessors as an accelerated processing unit (APU), chipsets, discrete and integrated graphics processing units (GPUs), and professional GPUs; and server and embedded processors, and semi-custom System-on-Chip

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