Autodesk Stock Forecast: Prediction Missed, but Large Potential to Grow

Kun
The article was written by Kun Qiu, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Summary

  • Autodesk’s strategic shift from traditional software provider to innovation company was proven effective since the company’s revenue was steadily increasing.
  • Autodesk failed to reach the consensus EPS anticipation, but the non-GAAP earnings of fiscal 2020 first quarter per share $0.45 is far beyond $0.06 for the same quarter last year.
  • Autodesk’s stock price still has a large potential to grow if Autodesk could maintain its leading role in CAD industry and apply its core strategy successfully.

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Tiffany & Co. Shining to the Top

“Simplicity is the keynote of all true elegance” – Coco Chanel

 

Summary:

  • Tiffany & Co New and Shining
  • Q1 Results Above All Expectations
  • Current I Know First Algorithm Bullish Forecast For TIF

Tiffany & Co., through its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and retails jewelry and other items in the Americas, the Asia-Pacific, Japan, Europe, and internationally. The company offers jewelry collections, engagement rings, and wedding bands. It also sells timepieces, leather goods, sterling silver goods, china, crystal, stationery, eyewear, fragrances, and other accessories; and wholesales diamonds and earnings. The company sells its products through retail, Internet and catalog, business-to-business, and wholesale distribution channels. As of January 31, 2018, it operated 315 stores, including 124 stores in the Americas, 87 stores in the Asia-Pacific, 54 stores in Japan, 46 stores in Europe, and 4 stores in the United Arab Emirates. Tiffany & Co. was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

 New and Shining- Strategic Priorities

Earlier this year, Tiffany’s CEO Alessandro Bogliolo outlined six strategic priorities for the company. Among these strategic priorities are- Amplifying an evolved brand message, Renewing its product offerings and enhancing in-store presentations, Delivering an “exciting” omnichannel customer experience, Strengthening its competitive position and leading key markets, Cultivating a more efficient operating model and Inspiring an “aligned and agile” organization to win.

Tiffany started achieving those goals and is still in progress.  Tiffany launched on March, 2018 a new “Believe in Love” marketing campaign which highlights racial and sexual diversity in order to renovate its brand message for younger shoppers.            I believe that the campaign contributed to Tiffany’s 11% growth in engagement Jewelry sales during Q1.

[Image Source: Tiffany.com]

In line with the priority of renewing product offerings, Tiffany unveiled “PAPER FLOWERS”, a major collection in platinum and diamonds. This collection combines everyday jewelry together with one-of-a-kind pieces for the first time ever at Tiffany. The collection’s concept is creating a fine jewelry/high jewelry collection that anyone can buy or feel that it fits into their life. This strategic move is a very important launch for the company since it has high jewelry and fine jewelry at different and lower price ranges.

[Image Source: Tiffany.com]

In addition, Tiffany invested in improving its website and started selling a curated selection of jewelry on fashion e-tailer Farfetch in over 40 countries in attempt to deliver an “exciting” omnichannel experience. The new strategic selling action complements Tiffany’s e-commerce partnership with Net-A-Porter and helps Tiffany sell products beyond the 13 countries where it operates its own e-commerce sites.

Tiffany recently opened a new jewelry, design, and innovation workshop near its corporate office in New York City in order to improve its operating efficiency. This new workshop allows the company’s model makers, designers, and engineers to all work under the same roof and develops a more efficient operating model.

Tiffany Q1 Results of 2018

On May 23, Tiffany & Co. released its financial Q1 results of 2018 that rose above all analysts’ expectations. Starting the day trading at $119.32, Tiffany & Co. reached an intraday of $126.64. Shares gained $23.81 by the day ended. In Q1 of 2018, we can specifically see that worldwide net sales rose 15% to $1.0 billion, resulting from broad-based sales growth which, combined with a higher operating margin and a lower effective tax rate, resulted in a 53% increase in net earnings. Net earnings increased to $142 million, or $1.14 per diluted share, from last year’s $93 million, or $0.74 per diluted share. These extraordinary financial Q1 results should draw investors’ attention in a positive direction to see that the company is on a significant growing path.

[Image Source: Tiffany & Co.]

On can see that although, Tiffany had a GAAP reported decrease of 21% in net sales and 7% decrease in comparable sales in some other region that are not stated, it didn’t have much effect on the company’s worldwide total net sales increase of 15% and worldwide total comparable sales increase of 10%. In addition, the company also had a decrease in Constant-Exchange-Rate Basis in both net sales and comparable sales in the other region that are not stated. These decreases did not affect the company’s worldwide total increase in either of the sales.

As shown below, Tiffany topped the market and all the analysts’ expectations with its sales growth across all of its global regions accelerated dramatically.

Region

Constant Currency Sales Growth

Comps Growth
U.S.A8%9%
Asia23%9%
Japan12%9%
Europe1%-9%
Total11%7%

My estimation is that Tiffany’s surging sales growth indicates that its improving strategy efforts are paying off. Global sales growth was stronger than anticipated and mainly benefited from strong sales to tourists from China and from a weak dollar. In Europe most of the growth came from new store openings. As of today, Tiffany is still thriving across most markets except for Europe, where it’s still struggling with lower tourist spending and newer stores in older locations.

RegionQ2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017Q4 2018
U.S.A1%1%5%9%
Asia2%15%13%28%
Japan1%-8%2%17%
Europe3%5%13%13%

 

Fiscal 2018 Outlook

Following the better-than-expected results, Tiffany raised its guidance for fiscal 2018. Tiffany now envisions worldwide net sales increasing by a high-single-digit percentage over the prior year and net earnings increasing to $4.50 – $4.70 per share, compared with the previous guidance of $4.25-$4.45 per share.

Conclusion

Following the above, TIF stock increased by 27.74% since the Q1 results of 2018 were announced. Tiffany’s efforts to improve its strategic priorities are paying off and led to a stronger sales growth than anticipated.

My conclusion is that TIF stock will continue to grow in the long term given the fact that it is a solid company that keeps improving, renewing and adjusting its strategy according to market trends.

 

[Image Source: Yahoo Finance]

In a 1 year look back one can see that TIF stock had a few ups and downs but in the long-term outlook the stock keeps going up.

Tiffany’s strategic priorities are also paying off in comparison to the industry of Retail – Jewelry. As of this year Tiffany is the industry leader in Growth Rates and Financials.

Growth Rates
Tiffany & Co.

Per Share

Industry

Per Share

2018$23.81         $7
Last 5 Years     $3.2

$11.1

As one can see above, Tiffany’s growth rates per share rose by about 10% from the last 5 years thanks to its improving strategic and new priority and is expected to continue with this growing path for the long-term. This Shows how Tiffany & Co is currently is ranked the highest in the industry of Retail – Jewelry.

According to analyst recommendations from Yahoo Finance, the current consensus is a “Buy” in Tiffany & Co. Stock, with 6 advising a “Strong Buy” and 7 advising a “Buy”.

[Image Source: Yahoo Finance]

Current bullish I Know First Algorithm forecast for TIF

Tiffany & Co. is a successful solid company and investors should buy and hold on to TIF’s stock because the company is raising and shining its way up. I Know First Algorithm is currently bullish for TIF stock which appears to be bullish for 1, 3 and 12 months investment horizons.

How to read the I Know First Forecast 

Please note-for

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Facebook Stock Forecast: Why The Monetization of Instant Games Platform Is Important To Facebook

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Facebook Stock Forecast

Summary:

  • Facebook has enabled in-app purchases on its Instant Games platform. This includes mobile and web games published through Instant Games.
  • Facebook will take 30% commission from in-app purchases processed through Instant Games. This should help Facebook diversify outside its extreme reliance on advertising revenue.
  • On Android and iOS, Facebook will take its 30% cut on Instant Games after Google and Apple get their 30% commission.
  • The long-term potential of Instant Games comes from its HTML5-based device-agnostic design. Instant Games is a brilliant implementation of the Progressive Web Apps ecosystem.
  • Facebook paid $19 billion for WhatsApp. It is only fair that WhatsApp users start accepting that nothing is free forever in this life.

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Apple Stock Predictions: Why Project Marzipan Is Important To Apple’s Future

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First

Apple Stock Predictions

Summary:

  • Apple is gradually losing the K-12 education PC market due to Google’s Chromebooks.
  • Chromebooks are now even more attractive because they can run Android apps/games.
  • It is no surprise that Apple is also intent on letting x86 Intel Macs run iOS games and apps.
  • Project Marzipan is Apple’s in-development solution to allow iPad/iPhone apps run on macOS X computers.
  • Thanks to the Virtualization Technology of Intel’s x86 processors, Apple will likely deliver the promise of Project Marzipan.

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Jabil Inc. Stock Forecast For 2018: JBL Rises Following Q2 Results With Strong Revenue Growth

  This article was written by Esther Hanon, a Financial Analyst at I Know First  This article was written by Esther Hanon, a Financial Analyst at I Know First

Image result for jabil inc

Source: Glassdoor, March 20th, 2018

"An empowered organization is one in which individuals have the knowledge, skill, desire, and opportunity to personally succeed in a way that leads to collective organizational success." 

--Stephen Covey

Summary:

  • Jabil’s stock rose more than 10 percent Friday on news of a well-balanced second-quarter performance that beat analysts’ expectations.
  • The company's second-quarter results, released after the close of the market Thursday, included net revenue of $5.3 billion, up more than 19 percent compared with Q1 of 2017.
  • Highlights included 38 percent revenue growth from Jabil’s diversified manufacturing operations and 7 percent growth in revenue from electronics manufacturing
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Quick Win by the Algorithm: OCLR Stock Soars After Buyout Deal

Quick Win by the Algorithm:

Source: MC-2 Experience via Pinterest

“I am very pleased that two of the optical industry leaders, Oclaro and Lumentum, will join forces.  Together, we will be an even stronger player in fiber optic components and modules for high-speed communications and a market leader in 3D sensing.  This is a fantastic combination for all of our stakeholders, including stockholders, employees, customers and partners. I am extremely proud of what the Oclaro team has accomplished over the last five years. We have enjoyed tremendous success and this combination will

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Micron Stock Forecast: Micron (MU) Shares Show Consistent Algorithm Results

This article was written by Esther Hanon, a Financial Analyst at I Know First

“I can’t change the direction of the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination”

—Jimmy Dean

Summary:­­­­

  • Memory-chip maker Micron Technology continued its skyward climb, following a breakout last week
  • Micron shares jumped 8.8% to close at 59.37 on the stock market on Monday, March 12 Micron stock broke out of a 14-week consolidation period with a buy point of 49.99 on March 5th.
  • Analysts are maintaining its outperform rating while many others are shifting towards a buy rating in the recent days.
  • Catalysts for Micron stock include higher DRAM chip pricing, margin expansion in NAND chips, and expectations for increased capital returns. Micron can also be an acquisition target as chip-industry merger activity intensifies.

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Investment Research: AI-based forecasting system as an integrated DSS

Using I Know First AI-based forecasting system as an integrated DSS within a client’s investment or advisory process – case study with a bank

Key results

Applying screens derived from the I Know First AI-based forecasting system to recommendations list of a very well-known investment research company (=: “InvResCo’”) results in improved trade and portfolio performances:

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