Machine Learning Stock Sector Risk vs Classical Risk Sector Measures

September 18, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Rapid development and implementation of AI algorithms in the investing area required reconsidering the concept of risk.
  • The effectiveness of ML training and subsequent forecasting depends on the quality of training data.
  • XLE is the least risky sector for further sufficient learning and forecasting, despite its high volatility and required investment risk premium.

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Investment Strategies: Who is Winning in the Battle between Active vs Passive Investors

August 10, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Over 50% of U.S. Large-Cap active managers have underperformed the S&P 500 in 18 of the past 21 years.
  • The percentage of funds underperforming expands as the investment horizon lengthens, ranging from around 55% over a 1-year horizon to 94% over a 20-year horizon for U.S. funds.
  • The IKF AI algorithms can assist in identifying the latest investment opportunities and enhancing the performance of active investment strategies.

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Risk Parity Portfolio

May 11, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • The risk parity portfolio technique enables us to identify optimal asset weights in the portfolio so that the contribution of each asset toward the total portfolio risk is equal.
  • I Know First provides daily market forecasts for a broad range of financial assets for six investment horizons from 3-day to 1-year which help to identify the most promising financial assets according to the AI algorithm.
  • We can build a portfolio based on the IKF AI algorithm, and construct the risk parity portfolio where each asset has the same risk contribution rate to the total portfolio risk.

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Sector Rotation: Constructing a Suitable Portfolio According to the Macroeconomic Environment

May 3, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Different stages of the stock market require stock selections that are more suitable in the current macroeconomic environment.
  • The strategy based on sector rotation in periods of expansion and recession can generate an additional excess annual return compared with the stock market return.
  • I Know First provides the ETFs package based on the AI algorithm to find the most promising investment opportunities according to the macroeconomic environment.

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Herding Behavior on the Stock Market

April 20, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Herding behavior refers to the tendency of individuals to follow the actions or decisions of a larger group of people, rather than making independent decisions.
  • The CSAD model enables us to identify periods of herding behavior on the stock market.
  • We implement the CSAD model and identify cases of herding behavior on the stock market for the period from January 1st, 2020 to April 19th, 2023.

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HMM-Based Classification of Stock Market Stages

April 10, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • Identifying the stage of the market enables traders to adjust their investment strategies to take advantage of the current market conditions.
  • The Hidden Markov Model allows us to determine the stock market stages.
  • We uncover patterns in the S&P500 index and VIX from January 1st, 2000 to April 6th, 2023 by using HMM to identify periods of bull and bear markets.

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Market Anomaly: Holiday Stock Return Effect

March 25, 2023
Sergey Okun This article was written by Sergey Okun – Senior Financial Analyst, I Know First, Ph.D. in Economics.

Summary:

  • A correctly identifying market anomaly can generate a profit for an investor that enables him to beat the market.
  • We have tested the Holiday effect anomaly and we have found that exploration of this anomaly cannot provide an eager return for an investor today.
  • The I Know First AI algorithm can identify working market anomalies that could be difficultly recognizable for a general investor.

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