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Disney Stock Forecast: Raise Your Bets On Disney

The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

My last buy recommendation for Disney’s stock was in April 2018. The stock now has a 1-year price return of +35.47%.
I reiterate DIS as a buy. Going forward, the Marvel and Star Wars assets remain infinite gold mines. Disney is the no.1 player in the $200 billion global IP licensing business.
The latest Avengers movie will break global theater gross sales. Further, this Marvel franchise movie will generate more sales from IP licensing.
Disney’s stock has a P/E valuation higher than the average ratio of its peers. Going forward, Disney’s library of movies, brands, TV shows, makes it the King of Entertainment.
The upcoming launch of Disney Plus paid streaming service is another inspiring tailwind for Disney. Maybe two years from now, investors will value DIS like NFLX.

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The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Netflix will likely lose more Disney and Marvel-licensed TV series and movies.
The upcoming launch of Disney+ requires Netflix to find other third-party content providers for its streaming business.
Warner Bros and DC Comics are white knights that can help Netflix survive the loss of Disney and Marvel-licensed shows.
Netflix can spend billions of dollars on original content but it can never match the long-term pull of Marvel or DC superheroes-themed movies and shows.
Netflix still needs globally-famous third-party licensed shows to attract more international subscribers.

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The article was written by Isabelle Tao, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Disney will be a strong competitor to Netflix in the long term after Fox acquisition
Disney movies are not easily replaceable and will continue to drive its growth
Hulu and ESPN’s losses should caution investors, but Disney is shifting itself strategically to the streaming service.

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The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary:

Disney has announced that it will stop licensing its movies to Netflix and will start its own streaming service in 2019.
This revelation caused NFLX to drop more than 4% yesterday. A rival streaming service from Disney two years from is certainly a cause for concern.
However, that’s two years from now. By that time, Netflix will have created its own library of original content so it can survive future competition from Disney.
I therefore conclude that the bearish cloud over NFLX is not going to last long. The long-term growth story of NFLX is still intact.
Netflix has already invested billions of dollars in original contents. It can also spend billions of dollars more to buy IP owners like comics publisher Millarworld.

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The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.

Summary:

This year has been kind to Disney-made movies. Disney has three billion-dollar grossing movies, Zootopia, Captain America: Civil War, and Finding Dory.
Strange is another blockbuster hit judging by its global weekend gross of $325 million.
Disney’s stock should trade higher when investors appreciate that it now owns the top four biggest grossing movies this year.
Successful movies has trickle-down benefits. Licensing streaming and TV rights of hit movies also benefits the Consumer Goods and Media Networks divisions of Disney.
Disney’s stock has positive short and near-term algorithmic forecasts.