I Know First Live Forecast Evaluation Report For Japanese Stock Market – Continuously Beating Nikkei 225 Index And Japan Stock Market Benchmarks

Executive Summary

In this live forecast evaluation report we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Japanese stock market and sent to our customers on a daily basis.

Nikkei 225 universe highlights

  • Signal indicator filter applied to Top 30 most predictable stocks provides the highest return of 6.08% for Top 10 stocks on 3-months’ investment horizon
  • We observe clear increasing trend on returns improving with the increase of forecast time horizon – the change in returns from 1 month to 3 months is more than 350% for Top 10 stocks
  • Top 10 stocks significantly out-perform both benchmarks, including Nikkei 225 actual performance recorded over the time under consideration, by over 630%

Japan stock market universe highlights

  • Signal indicator filter applied to Top 30 most predictable stocks provides the highest return of 5.91% for Top 20 stocks on 3-months’ investment horizon
  • We observe clear increasing trend on returns improving with the increase of forecast time horizon – the change in returns from 1 month to 3 months is more than 320% for Top 20
  • Top 20 stocks significantly out-perform the benchmark by more than 340%

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Bayesian Neural Networks: Bayes’ Theorem Applied to Deep Learning

  The article was written by Amber Zhou, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights:

  • Vanilla Deep Learning Method: Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)
  • Introduction to Bayes’ Theorem
  • Application of Bayes’ Theorem: Bayesian Inference
  • Combination: Bayesian Neural Networks
  • How I Know First Utilizes Bayesian Neural Networks for Forecasting

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I Know First Live Forecast Evaluation Report For Japanese Stock Market – Continuously Beating Nikkei 225 Index And Japan Stock Market Benchmarks

Executive Summary

In this live forecast evaluation report we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Japanese stock market and sent to our customers on a daily basis. We will start with an introduction to our stock picking and benchmarking methods and then apply it to the stock universe of the Nikkei 225 index as well as all of the stocks covered by us in the “Japan Stocks” Package.

Bayesian Inference and I Know First’s Application

   


This article was written by Kwon Sok Oh, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.    




Summary

  1. Introduction of Bayesian Inference and BAC Example
  2. Prior Distribution: Concepts and BAC Example
  3. Likelihood Function: Concepts and BAC Example
  4. Posterior Distribution: Concepts and BAC Example
  5. Posterior Predictive Distribution: Concepts and BAC Example
  6. Conclusion of Discussion and BAC Example
  7. I Know First and Bayesian Neural Networks

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TRIP Stock Forecast: A Light of Dawn or a Flash in the Pan

  The article was written by Amber Zhou, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

TRIP Stock Forecast

"The travel category is indeed enormous and outpacing other consumer spending worldwide, and TripAdvisor not only inspires travel, but also causes more travel – in particular by encouraging travelers to take longer trips by showing them how much more there is to see and do." – Charlie Ballard, director of strategic insights, TripAdvisor

Highlights:

  • Solid start of 2018 – a cheerful bottom-out
  • Rapidly scaling non-hotel segment from supply acquisition initiatives
  • Concerns remain on the shrinking hotel segment
  • Current I Know First Algorithm bullish forecast for TRIP

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Algorithmic Trading Strategies For European Stocks: Returns Up to 193%

In the following article we analyze a series of trading strategies directly adoptable by I Know First clients and which have generated returns up to 193% over the period going from August 2015 to April 2017. The strategies follow the algorithm’s signals and invest daily in the strongest ones from the package “European Stocks” hence resulting in a portfolio continuously in line with the program’s recommendations and with the evolving market.

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Algorithmic trading strategies

Stock Forecasts: Daily Stock Selection Based On AI Algorithm for January 7th, 2016-January, 2017

Stock forecasting

Stock Forecasts: Short-term Trading

Daily Stock Selection Based On a Self-Learning Algorithm

screen-shot-2017-01-11-at-5-56-58-pm Time Period: January 7th, 2016 – January 1st, 2017 for stock forecasts 

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