I Know First Evaluation Report for Short-Term Currencies

Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the currency market with short term time horizons ranging from 1 to 6 days, which were delivered daily to our institutional clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 28 March 2019 to 9 June 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways from applying signal and volatility filters to pick the best performing currency pairs:

Currencies Highlights:

  • Top 5 currency pairs without volatility adjusted had better returns in the 1- and 2-day time horizons, providing an average return of 0.19% in the 1 day horizon which outperformed the benchmark by 1800%.
  • Top 5 currency pairs with volatility adjusted outperformed the benchmark in all time horizons, providing the highest return of 0.19% in 6 days.

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I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: May 6, 2019


I Know First Weekly Newsletter
Investment Selection Using AI Predictive Algorithm
May 6, 2019

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I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: April 29, 2019


I Know First Weekly Newsletter
Investment Selection Using AI Predictive Algorithm
April 29, 2019

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I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: April 15, 2019


I Know First Weekly Newsletter
Investment Selection Using AI Predictive Algorithm
April 15, 2019

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Evaluation Report For The Currencies Market

Executive Summary

In this Live Forecast Evaluation Report, we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Currency market which were delivered to our customers on a daily basis. Our analysis covers the time period from January 1, 2018 – November 31, 2018. We present below the key observations when signal and predictability filters were applied in order to pick the best performing currency pairs out of the most predictable ones:

 

 

Currencies Universe Highlights:

  • The Top 10 most predictable currency pairs on 3-months’ investment horizon provided the highest return of 2.02% and beat the benchmark by 0.11%.
  • We monitor an improving return with the increase of the forecast time horizon¬- the difference in return from 1 month to 3 months for the Top 10 currency pairs is 1.42%.
  • Top 10 currency pairs outperform the benchmark, whereas Top 20 currency pairs outperform the benchmark in 3 out of 5 cases.

I Know First Live Forecast Evaluation Report For Currencies Universe – Using Predictability And Signal While Searching For The Best Currencies

Executive Summary

In this live forecast evaluation report for currencies we will examine the performance of the forecasts generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Forex market that we sent to our customers on a daily basis. We will start with an introduction to our asset picking and benchmarking methods and then apply it to the currency pairs universe covered by I Know First’s “Currencies” package and compare it to the benchmark performance over the same period. This report continues our investigation published on September 27, 2018.

Currencies Universe Highlights

  • The Top 5 most predictable stocks on 3-months’ investment horizon provided the highest return of 4.41% and beat the benchmark by 2.23%
  • We monitor an improving return with the increase of the forecast time horizon¬- the difference in return from 1 month to 3 months for the Top 5 stocks is 4.16%
  • Top 5 and Top 10 stocks largely outperform the benchmark, whereas Top 20 stocks outperform the benchmark in 3 out of 5 cases.

Bayesian Inference and I Know First’s Application

 

 

This article was written by Kwon Sok Oh, a Financial Analyst at I Know First.

 

 

Summary

  1. Introduction of Bayesian Inference and BAC Example
  2. Prior Distribution: Concepts and BAC Example
  3. Likelihood Function: Concepts and BAC Example
  4. Posterior Distribution: Concepts and BAC Example
  5. Posterior Predictive Distribution: Concepts and BAC Example
  6. Conclusion of Discussion and BAC Example
  7. I Know First and Bayesian Neural Networks

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