Dow Jones Predictions: I Know First Evaluation Report for DJI

Dow Jones Predictions Executive Summary

In this forecast evaluation report, we examine the performance of market indices predictions generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the Dow Jones Index (DJI) with time horizons ranging from 3 days to 3 months, which were delivered daily to our clients. Our analysis covers the time period from 1 January 2019 to 9 August 2019. Below, we present our key takeaways for checking hit ratios of our Dow Jones predictions in the market.


  • 82% Hit Ratio for 3-months time period for DJI predictions allowing our clients to be able to invest their money with significant less risk
  • Predictions consistently hit above 54% accuracy despite volatile market conditions

Note that the above results were obtained as a result of an evaluation conducted over the specific time period to give a presentation for DJI movements. The following report provides an extensive explanation of our methodology and detailed analysis of the performance metrics that we obtained during the evaluation. This report is a new I Know First evaluation series illustrating the ability to provide successful forecasting on DJI.

About the I Know First Algorithm

stock market predictions

The I Know First self-learning algorithm analyses, models, and provides stock market predictions for the capital markets, including stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities and interest rates. The algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and incorporates elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms.

The system outputs the predicted trend as a number, positive or negative, along with a wave chart that predicts how the waves will overlap with the predicted trend. Consequently, the trader can decide which direction to trade, when to enter the trade, and when to exit the trade. The model is 100% empirical, based only on factual data, thereby avoiding any biases or emotions that may accompany human assumptions. I Know First’s model only involves the human factor in building the mathematical framework and providing the initial set of inputs and outputs to the system. The algorithm produces a forecast with a signal and a predictability indicator. The signal is the number in the middle of the box. The predictability is the number at the bottom of the box. At the top, a specific asset is identified. This format is consistent across all predictions.

Example display of forecast

Our algorithm provides two independent indicators for the index – signal and predictability.

The signal is the predicted strength and direction of movement of the index. This is measured from –inf to +inf.

The predictability indicates our confidence in the signal. The predictability is a Pearson correlation coefficient relating to past algorithmic performance and actual market movement, measured from -1 to 1. You can find a detailed description of our heatmap here

The Hit Ratio Calculation

The hit ratio helps us to identify the accuracy of our algorithm’s predictions.

We predict the direction of movement of AMAT using our algorithm. Our predictions are then compared against actual movements of AMAT within the same time horizon.

The hit ratio is then calculated as follows: 

Index in Spotlight: DJI

The Dow Jones Index, or the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Dow, is a stock market index that indicates the value of 30 large, publicly owned companies based in the United States, and how they have traded in the stock market during various periods of time. These 30 companies are also included in the S&P 500 Index. 

DJI Price Movements

The DJI was fluctuating from 1 January 2019 to 9 August 2019, . Despite a general uptrend over the past 8 months, there were times when the index fell in price during the months of April to May. It is imperative for traders to spot such price changes in the market to profit during such volatile times. 

Evaluating DJI Predictions Hit Ratio

DJI Hit Ratio per time horizon

From the results above, you can see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict DJI movements throughout various time periods. For the past 8 months, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of predicting AMAT’s exact movement 82% of the times for the 3-months prediction time horizon. This, in essence, means that the algorithm will be correct most of the time on the 3-months time horizon, giving our clients peace of mind to make the safest investments. Additionally, we can also predict the 3-day, 7-day, 14-day and 1-month time horizons with 54%, 56%, 62% and 69% accuracy respectively. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing, even throughout these volatile time periods.


We at I Know First have a mission to provide our clients with the most robust and reliable market forecasts. By sharpening our ability to predict the DJI using our artificial intelligence system, we provide our clients with increasing certainty that their investment will be safer and more profitable. Within the bounds of certainty, we have consistently been able to predict the price movements of DJI for at least 54% of the time over the past 8 months. Our peak performance is the 82% hit ratio over the 3-months time horizon, meaning that on average, our predictions for the DJI’s price movement are correct almost all the time for long term investments.