by Marika Nicastro, a Junior Financial Analyst at I Know First, and enrolled at a Business Management program at the Luiss University in Rome, Italy.

ConocoPhillips Stock Forecast

Summary

• OPEC agreement
• Funds and investors
• Conclusion
  

ConocoPhillips, the world’s largest independent exploration and production company. The Company explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Company operates through six operating segments, which are primarily defined by geographic region: Alaska; Lower 48; Canada; Europe and North Africa; Asia Pacific and Middle East, and Other International.

OPEC Agreement

ConocoPhillips, as the other E&P companies, will gain better performance thanks to the OPEC agreement. This states that OPEC will reduce output by about 1.2 million barrels a day by January fulfilling a plan sketched out in Algiers in September to cut its production to 32.5 million barrels. Saudi Arabia, which raised oil production to a record this year, will reduce output by 486,000 barrels a day to 10.058 million a day. Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, agreed to cut by 210,000 barrels a day from October levels. Even non-OPEC like Russia has joined output cuts for the first time in 15 years.

The OPEC agreements caused a surge in oil prices, boosting its production, especially in the united states where the cost of the production is higher than in Saudi Arabia. This means that ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) could sell more and benefit from the high price, earning more cash flows.

(Bloomberg)

However, is important to add that the supply’s increase could cause in 9/12 months a reduction of prices.

Funds and Investors

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP):
– Telemus Capital LLC increased its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 0.5% in the third quarter.
– Bahl & Gaynor Inc. increased its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 0.6% in the third quarter.
– Sequoia Financial Advisors LLC increased its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 0.3% in the second quarter.
– Integrated Investment Consultants LLC increased its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 2.0% in the third quarter.
– NEXT Financial Group Inc increased its position in shares of ConocoPhillips by 0.3% in the second quarter.
(Dailyquit)

Conclusion

The financial performance for ConocoPhillips is highly correlated to movements in Brent Crude prices. Brent averaged about $45 a barrel in 2016, and is expected to rise above $55 this year. Hence, ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is supposed to be a profitable investment.

 I Know First Algorithmic Bullish Forecast For COP

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm, allowing the user to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.