Blackberry Stock Prediction: Not a Promising Road Ahead

Samantha FischlerSamantha Fischler is a Financial Analyst at I Know First. She is currently a candidate for her bachelor’s degree in Accounting with a Concentration in Finance at Binghamton University.

Blackberry Stock Prediction


  • Blackberry reported a less than stellar third quarter
  • The company may be making a new smartphone
  • Blackberry is seeking to create secure software for self-driving cars
  • I Know First maintains a bearish stance on BBRY for 2017

Blackberry Stock Prediction

You’d be shocked if you asked someone for the time and they pulled out a Blackberry to check for you. The time where Blackberries dominated the smartphone market has simply come and gone, with iPhones and Androids stepping in to take the place of the once popular device. Now that the third quarter earnings report us out in the open and with Blackberry’s new projects coming along, what does I Know First predict for Blackberry going forward?

A Rocky Third Quarter

 Blackberry reported their fiscal 2017 third quarter earnings before the markets opened today, December 20. This is the first earnings report since the company sold their handset business to TCL. However, Blackberry’s switch to focusing on software wasn’t enough to make up for the loss of revenue from smartphones and services and reverse the trend of repeated quarters of losses. The company posted a net loss of $117 million during Q3, a year-over-year change of 47.3%. For Q3 2015, the company reported a net loss of $89 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share surpassed analysts’ expectations by $0.02, coming in at a gain $0.01 instead of a loss of $0.01. The breakdown of the revenue earned is notable being that revenue from sales from the handset business were down to $62 million from $220 million in 2015. On the other hand, software and services brought in $160 million to the company, but that isn’t nearly enough to offset the change in revenue from the handset business.

While Blackberry’s stock has gone up as of 2.53% as of 9:55am EST on December 20, this is largely due to the surprise $0.01 EPS and will be short lived. Investors will soon focus more on the disappointing revenues and the price of the stock will ultimately fall.

 New Phone?

Blackberry Stock PredictionWhile a deal had been announced at the end of September, last Thursday, Blackberry signed a long-term deal with TCL that gives TCL the right to use the Blackberry name and software to create new smartphones in exchange for a royalty payment. TCL, however, is not allowed to distribute “Blackberries” in South Asia and in Indonesia. Now that that’s a done deal, TCL, under the Blackberry name, will likely have a new android out in early 2017. The phone is expected to have a QUERTY keyboard and be a next generation of the Revolution model that Blackberry already produces. However, given the decreased level of brand recognition that Blackberry has now as opposed to 5 years ago, it isn’t a given that the new model will be such a popular pick and fly off the shelves like when a new iPhone model is released.

A Big Investment

The latest tech market that seemingly every company wants to break into is the business of autonomous cars. Blackberry is not excluded from the list of companies trying to succeed in the self-driving car market. The company just shelled out $75 million to build a research and development center in Canada, where the company is based. Unlike companies like Tesla, Blackberry is not looking to manufacture self-driving cars. However, it is looking to create secure software that allows the cars to operate safely and securely. Blackberry CEO John Chen expects to add as many as 600 new employees to Blackberries payroll as the company is seeking software developers to propel this technology forward. While in the long run, having the software that everyone in the automated car business puts into their cars could be quite profitable, until that day comes in the distant future, Blackberry will have to work on creating that software. The $75 million that Blackberry invested into building their research and development center is only the beginning of the high costs that the company will experience in order to make their software business profitable.


I Know First maintains a bearish outlook on BBRY, as can be seen in the forecast below. This is due to the poor earnings that the company continues to report and the overextension of the failing company.

Blackberry Stock Prediction

I Know First has made accurate predictions about Blackberry’s stock price in the past. For example, in the 7-day forecast dated September 22, 2015 I Know First displayed a signal strength of -5.94 with a predictability indicator of 0.22 for BBRY. As of September 29, 2015, BBRY showed negative growth of 18.87%.

Blackberry Stock Prediction

I Know First’s algorithm forecasts how stocks are going to perform for 3 days, 7 days, 14 days, 1 month, 3 months, and a year. In the case of Blackberry (BBRY), the middle row represents the signal strength and the bottom number represents the predictability indicator, the historical correlation which is heavily weighted on the algorithm’s recent predictions. To learn more about how I Know First’s algorithm operates, click here.