Apple Stock Prediction: Lucky Number 7

Samantha Fischler is a Financial Analyst at I Know First. She is currently a candidate for her bachelor’s degree in Accounting with a Concentration in Finance at Binghamton University.

Apple Stock Prediction


  • Apple is catching up to Android
  • The iPhone 7 line isn’t particularly innovative
  • Trade-in programs and Samsung’s recall will help Apple sell phones
  • Apple faces many threats in different Asian countries
  • The introduction of a phone makes Google an independent entrant to the smartphone market
  • I Know First is bullish on AAPL

The iPhone 7 and 7 Plus have been out in the US for about a month now and Apple’s stock has shown marked growth. The question remains, is Apple a buy or a sell? Below is a SWOT analysis that explains I Know First’s position on Apple.

Apple Stock Prediction


Apple Stock PredictionApple has a lot of strengths and one of the more notable ones is the strong brand recognition that Apple has. Everyone recognizes Apple as a trustworthy tech company. Apple is a reputable company that is known for quality, sleekness, and innovation. This is what constantly draws people to wait in lines outside Apple’s stores for hours before a new product goes on sale so that they can be one of the first to own the latest and greatest Apple product to hit the shelves. The desire of Apple’s loyal fan base to have the cool new Apple gadget to show off to their friends helps the company generate strong sales immediately following the release of the product. However, it helps down the line as well because people remember the cool new phone and when they need the phone a few months down the line, they will go to their local Apple store and purchase an iPhone.


Apple Stock PredictionApple has a relatively new strength in that it is catching up to android and is now comparable in terms of some key tech specs. The 2 most common ways that iPhones break is cracked screens and water damage. In the last few years, Apple has brought in a revolutionary new fix to the first problem on its models with stronger more durable screens. Apple’s next feature to make it more competitive with Android is water resistance. That’s right. Now you can take selfies underwater. Dropped your phone in the sink? Not a problem. The iPhone 7 and 7 Plus models can reportedly be submerged in up to a meter of water for 30 minutes at most.  The newest iPhone models are dust resistant as well with the highest rating for their resistance level. For many people deciding between an iPhone and an android, the strong screen and water resistance were deal breakers that led them to leave store, new android in tow. However, Apple has matched that and leveled the playing field.


While the company and its new line of iPhones have many strengths, neither are perfect. For starters, Apple is known to be an especially innovative company that is constantly creating exciting new products with groundbreaking features. However, the iPhone 7 line doesn’t have so many new features to bring to the table. There’s a new display, an upgraded camera, and better speakers, and a few other distinguishing features, but are those enough to rush out to the store to buy a new phone if you have a perfectly good working iPhone 6S? Maybe, but not as likely as it has been when earlier models came out because there were more features that differentiated what was then the ‘latest’ models. The rumors surrounding the iPhone 8 have it that the model expected in Fall 2017 will be more like Apple typically is, revolutionary. What’s to stop iPhone users from waiting until then or even switching to an android now to get a guarantee that the water resistance and strong screen will hold out?

Another weakness of the company is the bad press that it is getting over the decision to exclude the headphone jack from the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus. Instead, Apple included an adapter to allow headphones to connect to the phones through the lightning port, the very same port that is used to plug the charger into the phone. This created an uproar because of its inconvenience in that you can’t have wired headphones plugged in at the same time as the charger. However, while right now Apple is getting a lot of bad press for the decision, down the line, it will likely be a money maker. The adapter is small and easy to lose, but if an iPhone 7 user wants to listen to their music, they will be forced to run out to the store to buy a new adapter. Apple has also started selling its own wireless ‘Airpods’ for $159 a set which will help circumvent the issue of not being able to plug headphones and a charger in at the same time, while bring Apple additional revenue as they are not included with an iPhone 7 purchase

Image Source: iJailBreak


Once again, Apple=Innovate in most people’s minds. Since this model wasn’t particularly innovative, expectations are running high for the next model. Apple has the opportunity to create a revolutionary new product and have a very high demand for the iPhone 8.

Additionally, many stores are offering trade-in programs to encourage current iPhone users to upgrade to the line of iPhone 7s. Essentially, the stores are offering a sum of money depending on model, signs of wear and tear, etc. and you can use the money towards the purchase of a new iPhone. While Apple does have a trade-in program based on the same premise, this gives Apple the opportunity to sell more iPhones and get the full revenue from the phone because the trade-in money is not coming out of Apple’s deep pockets.

Another opportunity that has fallen in Apple’s lap is Samsung’s decision to recall its Galaxy Note 7 due to explosive batteries. The explosive batteries have definitely hurt Samsung both monetarily and in terms of image as a reliable brand, which will lead many people to purchasing iPhones.


A threat that Apple is currently facing is in its Chinese market. Chinese companies such as Nanyang Yongkang Medicine Company by saying that employees who buy iPhone 7 will be fired. The purpose of this is to coerce Chinese people to buy domestically made phones. This could damage Apple because the size of China’s middle class has been increasing in recent years and many people can now and probably would have purchased iPhone 7s…if it didn’t mean losing their jobs.

Another threat is the purchase of secondhand iPhones in countries like India and Indonesia. In countries with emerging markets, most people cannot afford to purchase a new iPhone at the prices that Apple charges. Instead, they purchase an older model and pay a fraction of the price. The problem for Apple is that it isn’t getting a cut as they are buying the older models used through third parties.

Another potential threat is the new Google phones that were announced last week. The Google phones have a sleek design and also include a Siri-like system that serves to answer questions and perform many tasks based off of what you say to it. Until now, Google provided aspects of the Nexus phones, but this is its first smartphone that is entirely Google. The entrance of Google to the smartphone market will certainly increase competition within the smartphone market.


Despite the weaknesses and threats to the new product line and the company in general, I Know First maintains a bullish stance on tech giant Apple. The pros far outweigh the cons in terms of Apple. iPhone 7 sales have yet to begin in countries around the world and Apple is well positioned to continue to show strong positive growth as a result of iPhone sales.


In the past, I Know First has been bullish on Apple. In a 14-day forecast dated September 13, 2016, the algorithm predicted positive growth from Apple. On September 27, the company had returned 7.26%.


I Know First’s algorithm forecasts how stocks are going to perform for 3 days, 7 days, 14 days, 1 month, 3 months, and a year. In the case of Apple (AAPL), the middle row represents the signal strength and the bottom number represents the predictability indicator, the historical correlation which is heavily weighted on the algorithm’s recent predictions. To learn more about how I Know First’s algorithm operates, click here.