Intel Stock Forecast: Intel’s Coffee Lake Is Another WalletRipper Move Against AMD’s Ryzen And Threadripper Processors

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First

Intel Stock Forecast


  • I am long INTC. I am a loyal Intel CPU buyer.
  • I am unhappy that Intel’s 8th generation desktop CPU products, Coffee Lake, require new motherboards.
  • Coffee Lake is obviously an equalizer move against AMD’s popular Ryzen CPUs. However, asking people to buy new motherboards generate resentment among Intel CPU upgraders.
  • Coffee Lake is therefore another walletripper tactic that is unlikely to inspire people to upgrade their current Skylake or Kaby Lake PCs.
  • I rate INTC a buy. I also rate AMD as a buy. These two enjoy the duopoly in x86 processors. They both benefit from the stabilizing PC market.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is forcing Intel (INTC) to improve its x86 product line. I discussed at Seeking Alpha that the AMD vs. Intel showdown is now more exciting. AMD’s high-end Ryzen Threadripper 1950X and Ryzen 7 1800X are now competent in gaming and workstation workloads. Intel will reportedly stream the launch of its 8th generation Coffee Lake processors on August 21.

Coffee Lake is Intel’s new counter-move against the popular Ryzen processors of AMD. Intel’s Kaby Lake seems to be inadequate to equalize the rising threat from AMD’s Ryzen. Coffee Lake processors will probably go on retail sales by Q4 of this year.

Intel stock forecast

(Source: Intel)

I am long INTC. I dual-source GPUs from AMD and Nvidia (NVDA). However, for the past 8 years I have been a loyal Intel Core i-Series customers. Unfortunately, I will skip upgrading to Coffee Lake because it requires a new motherboard. Coffee Lake processors will most likely cost more than Kaby Lake CPUs. The added expense ($100-$400) of buying another motherboard (because Intel decided Coffee Lake needs it) is a deal breaker for many Intel CPU upgraders. This is a clear walletripper move from Intel and it creates resentment among its loyal customers. The risk is Coffee Lake will still not be enough to equalize the threat of Ryzen processors.

In budget-conscious Intel markets like China (largest country in terms of revenue), the added cost of buying a new motherboard just to upgrade to Coffee Lake is a bad proposition. American PC users will also balk at the thought of buying a new $150 motherboard just to upgrade from Skylake to Coffee Lake. My point is that a global wide boycott could upset Intel’s plans for Coffee Lake to disrupt AMD’s always-cheaper-than-Intel Ryzen strategy.

Intel stock forecast(Source: Statista)

My Salt Against Coffee Lake

Coffee Lake is the third-generation 14-nanometer processor design from Intel. It is a bridge product before Intel will release its 10-nanometer Cannon Lake CPUs in late 2018 or late early 2019. Coffee Lake is therefore an improved version of the 7th generation Kaby Lake processor design. It was reportedly tweaked to offer six-core variants. Coffee Lake processors will feature 6-core variants, an upgrade from Intel’s usual 4-core configurations for Skylake and Kaby Lake Core i5 and Core i7 CPUs.

Below is a leaked data sheet of upcoming Coffee Lake Core i5 and Core i7 processors. Maybe the higher core count is a valid reason for Intel to require a new motherboard Coffee Lake. I’m not sure though. All I know is that a six-core configuration from Intel is still not adequate. AMD’s high-end 14-nanometer desktop processors, the Ryzen 7 and Ryzen Threadripper have 8-core and 16-core configurations.

Intel stock forecast

(Source: AT Forum)

The processor with the higher count of cores will most likely always prevail when it comes to multi-threading and CPU-intensive graphic/design production renders. The 16-core Ryzen Threadripper 1950X already beat Intel’s current top CPU, the 10-core Core i9-7900X in multithreading and render times.

Below is the hardware configurations used by Linus Tech Tips to compare Threadripper 1950X and Intel Core i9-7900X.

Intel stock forecast

Intel stock forecast

(Source: Linus Tech Tips)

Intel stock forecast

(Source: Linus Tech Tips)

Unless Coffee Lake variants starts coming in 8-core and 16-core variants, I think the lower cost and better multithreading advantage of AMD Ryzen CPUs will still attract many buyers. Intel will probably see AMD take back more market share in x86 processors for the next succeeding months.


Requiring people to buy a new motherboard to upgrade to Coffee Lake is not a customer-friendly act. On the contrary, it could hurt Intel’s relationship with loyal Intel CPU buyers. Intel will definitely make money from new motherboards because OEMs will pay to use new Intel chipsets designed for Coffee Lake processors. Nevertheless, I will stay long INTC. I am endorsing the stock as a buy. However, I am long AMD and I rate it as a buy.

It will be exciting to see how Intel will further address the Renaissance of AMD as a builder of excellent processors for high-end gaming and workstation production.

I am not happy with Intel’s walletripper move that requires a new motherboard for Coffee Lake. However, I Know First has positive near, intermediate, and long-term algorithmic forecasts for INTC. I have to stay bullish on Intel because I Know First’s self-learning algorithm is usually right when it comes to stock market trends.

Intel stock forecast

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm. This allows users to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

Intel stock forecast

Intel stock forecast