Dynavax Stock Analysis: Low Risk and High Reward, Buy Now.

  The article was written by Moises Meir, a Financial Analyst at I Know First

 Dynavax Stock Analysis

“The star product for Dynavax Technologies (HEPLISAV-B) is expected to have extremely high demand when it launches. For that reason investors are taking a very close look at Dynavax, as adding them to their portfolio gives them extremely high upside.”


  • Dynavax has an upcoming product that will revolutionize the vaccine industry
  • When is HEPLISAV-B’s Launch?
  • Other Current Projects at DVAX
  • Financial/Stock Performance & I Know First’s Bullish Forecast

Dynavax Technologies Corporation is a clinical-stage immunotherapy company that focuses on leveraging the power of the body’s innate and adaptive immune responses through toll-like receptor (TLR) stimulation. Dynavax is headquartered in Berkeley, California. They currently have three development areas: vaccine adjuvants, cancer immunotherapy, and autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. Its product candidates are being investigated for use in multiple cancer indications, as a vaccine for the prevention of hepatitis B and as a disease modifying therapy for asthma.

dynavax stock analysis

Dynavax’s most important product is HEPLISAV-B, an investigational adult hepatitis B vaccine which is in Phase III clinical trials.  To this date, Hepatitis B does not have a cure but HEPLISAV-B, if administered correctly, is expected to prevent the disease in all adults. The advantage for HEPLISAV-B is that it only has to be administered twice in one month, instead of the one used nowadays, where 6 vaccines in a 3 months period are given. The long duration of today’s vaccine means that many people don’t complete their treatment, thus leaving them exposed to Hepatitis B.

The star product for Dynavax Technologies is expected to have extremely high demand when it launches. For that reason investors are taking a very close look at Dynavax, as adding them to their portfolio gives them extremely high upside.

When is HEPLISAV-B’s Launch?

The problem with HEPLISAV-B is that it has not been approved by the Food and Drug Administration, yet. On Friday, the FDA panelists voted about the safety of HEPLISAV-B. The result was favorable at 12-1, with three abstentions. Panelists agreed that the available data supports the safety of the vaccine – with the caveat that Dynavax carries out a post-market study to assess the cardiovascular risk. The reason why the committee advised for a post-marketing study was to determine if HEPLISAV-B has a massive effect on cardiovascular functions in patients.

dynavax stock analysis

Today, was supposed to be the date were the FDA would approve or reject the vaccine, but the FDA delayed the decision. Investors need not to worry, as the FDA stated that they just need more information about DVAX’s post-marketing study plans. As an analyst I see the delay as a huge positive. If the FDA was about to reject HEPLISAV-B then they would not be asking for future plans.

Regardless, DVAX’s executives have stated that this delay will not affect the launch date of HEPLISAV-B which is expected in early 2018. The delay also gives DVAX more time to find a partner for HEPLISAV, although it appears to be clear that they have a plan, if they have to go by themselves.

Other Current Projects at DVAX

DVAX has much more going on than just the development of the vaccine. In January, it slashed its workforce in an attempt to reduce its cash burn rate by 40%. At the time, the company said it was prioritizing its immuno-oncology pipeline, which comprises two toll-like receptor (TLR) 9 agonists, SD-101 and DV281.

dynavax stock analysis

The former, which is injected directly into a tumor, is in several phase I/II trials, including Keynote-184 in combination with Merck & Co.’s (NYSE:MRK) Keytruda in metastatic melanoma. Data from the first 19 patients were reported at last year’s Society for Melanoma Research meeting, and an expansion to include head and neck cancer patients is planned.

Dynavax is also developing AZD1419, another inhaled TLR9 agonist, in collaboration with Astrazeneca (NYSE:AZN) in asthma. The companies believe it could modify the course of disease by “changing the basic immune response to environmental allergens”; while SD-101 and DV281 are designed to elicit an immune response, AZD1419 could help rebalance the activity of T helper 1 and 2 cells.

Financial/Stock Performance & I Know First’s Bullish Forecast

According to the 10-Q SEC filing, Dynavax has cash and cash equivalents of $85.4 million as of March 31, 2017. Whether or not Dynavax receives FDA approval for HEPLISAV-B, it will have to dilute for cash. That is because in the filing the company anticipates that it only has sufficient cash for the next 12 months. Although, it will likely not wait until the end to raise cash. That means that there is likely to be a dilution, in the event the company can’t find a partner to funds its operations.

On the stock performance area, DVAX is in an intriguing position. It is trading at $17.20 today, while it was at $9.00 a month ago. The 91.11% increase mostly comes mostly from the optimism behind HEPLISAV-B and its massive potential. I consider that a reason to take a long position with DVAX. The stock is still undervalued despite almost doubling in price, as some investors think that HEPLISAV-B will be rejected.

Analysts say that if the vaccine gets approval, the demand for DVAX stock will soar to the high $30’s.

dynavax stock analysis

I Know First issued a  bullish forecast for Dynavax that is in line with the analysis above. The report shows increasing bullish trends for the short, medium and long term. It is important to point out that for the long term there is a very strong signal of 355 with an extremely high predictability factor of 0.75. It is ideal to buy now and hold at least until the initial wave of sales of HEPLISAV-B.

Past I Know First’s Success with DVAX

Back in July 2nd, when DVAX was trading at $9.00, Zachary Shipman  Financial Analyst at I Know First published a bullish article for DVAX. His analysis and the forecast were correct, the stock has grown by more than 64% since his bullish forecast. Those who took Shipman’s analysis seriously are now enjoying their gains.

Dynavas Stock Analysis

I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm, allowing the user to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

Dynavax Stock Analysis