H1 2026 Performance: I Know First Outpaces the S&P 500 and Extends a Six Year Lead Over Major Hedge Funds
H1 2026 Performance: I Know First Outpaces the S&P 500 and Extends a Six Year Lead Over Major Hedge Funds
Combined Long/Short Strategy returns for June, Q2, H1, and since inception, compared against Millennium, Point72, Schonfeld Partners, Citadel Wellington, and the S&P 500
- I Know First Combined Long/Short Strategy: -0.37% in June 2026, ahead of the S&P 500 at -1.06%
- Q2 2026: I Know First +18.15% versus S&P 500 +14.87%, an outperformance of +3.27%
- Since inception (January 2020): I Know First +756.45% versus S&P 500 +129.10%
- Named multi strategy hedge funds posted June gains of 1.8% to 4.1%, outrunning the algorithm’s slightly negative month even as it kept ahead of the broad market
- Since inception risk adjusted metrics remain decisively in the algorithm’s favor: Sharpe Ratio of 1.79 versus 0.57, and a maximum drawdown less than half the size of the S&P 500’s
H1 2026 Performance: I Know First vs. S&P 500 and Major Hedge Funds
Across the first half of 2026 in full, the I Know First Combined Long/Short Strategy returned +17.63%, ahead of the S&P 500 at +9.55% by +8.08%, and ahead of every named multi strategy hedge fund in the comparison set, including Point72 at +14.50%, Millennium at +10.50%, Citadel Wellington at +10.20%, and Schonfeld Partners at +8.40%.
| Fund | H1 2026 Return |
|---|---|
| I Know First | +17.63% |
| Point72 | +14.50% |
| Millennium | +10.50% |
| Citadel Wellington | +10.20% |
| Schonfeld Partners | +8.40% |
| S&P 500 | +9.55% |
Source: I Know First AI Predictive Algorithm, from December 31, 2025 up until June 30, 2026
Market Context
June 2026 tested long short strategies across the industry. A Goldman Sachs prime brokerage note cited by CNBC on July 2, 2026 found that systematic long short strategies suffered their worst five day stretch since December 2023 between June 23 and June 29, as crowded momentum trades on the short side unwound rapidly. Fundamental long short equity funds still finished the month with a 4% gain on average, lifting the second quarter to 18.4%, the strongest quarterly result in Goldman’s records, according to Reuters reporting on the same data.
The S&P 500 fell 1.06% in June after a strong April and May, though it closed the first half of 2026 up close to 10% and near record highs. The rally followed a market bottom in late March, when investors began pricing in a resolution to the Iran conflict, and broadened out through the second quarter beyond the largest technology names.
Hedge funds had added equity exposure at the fastest pace in four months during the week of June 4, 2026, positioning that left several strategies exposed when the late June reversal hit. The I Know First Combined Long/Short Strategy posted a small negative month of -0.37%, still ahead of the S&P 500, in a period when directional positioning across the industry proved unusually difficult to navigate.
I Know First Monthly Performance
| Month | I Know First | S&P 500 | Outperformance |
|---|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | +10.79% | +10.42% | +0.36% |
| May 2026 | +7.04% | +5.15% | +1.89% |
| June 2026 | -0.37% | -1.06% | +0.70% |
| Q2 2026 | +18.15% | +14.87% | +3.27% |
Source: I Know First AI Predictive Algorithm, from March 31 up until June 30, 2026
How I Know First Stacked Up Against Major Hedge Funds
June was a rare month in which the named comparison funds outran the Combined Long/Short Strategy on an absolute basis, even as the algorithm stayed ahead of the S&P 500:
| Fund | June 2026 Return |
|---|---|
| I Know First | -0.37% |
| Millennium | +4.10% |
| Point72 | +3.40% |
| Schonfeld Partners | +2.50% |
| Citadel Wellington | +1.80% |
| S&P 500 | -1.06% |
Zooming out, the comparison looks very different. Over the second quarter, I Know First’s +18.15% return outpaced Point72’s first half figure of +14.5% and Millennium’s +10.5%, and its six year track record of +756.45% dwarfs the multi year returns posted by any multi strategy hedge fund over the same period.
Cumulative Performance Since Inception
Since January 2020, the I Know First Combined Long/Short Strategy has compounded through five and a half years of market cycles, including the 2020 pandemic drawdown, the 2022 rate hiking cycle, and the 2026 Iran conflict volatility, to reach a cumulative return of +756.45%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has returned +129.10%.
Year by Year Performance (2020–2026)
Looking at each calendar year individually shows how the I Know First Combined Long/Short Strategy has navigated markedly different market regimes, from the 2020 pandemic recovery to the 2022 rate hiking selloff and the 2026 Iran conflict volatility, while outperforming the S&P 500 in every calendar year since inception.
| Year | I Know First | S&P 500 | Outperformance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | +95.80% | +14.75% | +81.05% |
| 2021 | +42.29% | +26.89% | +15.40% |
| 2022 | +15.76% | -19.44% | +35.20% |
| 2023 | +38.05% | +24.23% | +13.82% |
| 2024 | +27.83% | +23.31% | +4.52% |
| 2025 | +27.93% | +16.39% | +11.54% |
| 2026 (YTD, through June 30) | +17.63% | +9.55% | +8.08% |
Source: I Know First AI Predictive Algorithm, from January 29, 2020 up until June 30, 2026
Year by Year Risk Indicators
| Year | IKF Vol | S&P Vol | IKF Sharpe | S&P Sharpe | IKF Sortino | S&P Sortino | IKF Max DD | S&P Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 29.84% | 27.13% | 3.08 | 0.40 | n/a | 0.70 | -9.71% | -33.92% |
| 2021 | 12.37% | 11.06% | 3.09 | 2.07 | 13.66 | 3.02 | -7.57% | -5.21% |
| 2022 | 25.79% | 22.97% | 0.46 | -1.02 | 0.68 | -2.79 | -15.65% | -25.43% |
| 2023 | 22.38% | 14.71% | 1.52 | 1.38 | 3.68 | 4.22 | -17.20% | -10.28% |
| 2024 | 12.60% | 10.59% | 1.89 | 1.82 | 5.25 | 3.51 | -7.81% | -8.49% |
| 2025 | 8.06% | 10.98% | 2.97 | 1.13 | 14.71 | 1.39 | -8.80% | -18.90% |
| 2026 (YTD, through June 30) | 19.88% | 18.88% | 1.76 | 0.87 | 2.70 | 1.98 | -7.82% | -9.10% |
Ann. Volatility is monthly return standard deviation annualized (×√12). Sharpe and Sortino use a 4% risk free rate. Max Drawdown is the largest peak to trough decline within each calendar year. Source: I Know First AI Predictive Algorithm, from January 29, 2020 up until June 30, 2026
Risk Adjusted Performance
| Metric | I Know First | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| CAGR | +39.75% | +13.79% |
| Ann. Volatility | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| Sharpe Ratio (Rf 4%) | 1.79 | 0.57 |
| Sortino Ratio (Rf 4%) | 3.39 | 0.90 |
| Max Drawdown | -17.20% | -33.92% |
Why the Algorithm Outperforms
- Deep Learning and Neural Networks — Detects non linear patterns humans miss, processing thousands of data points simultaneously across each rebalance cycle.
- Genetic Algorithms — Evolves trading rules across thousands of candidate strategies, applying survival of the fittest optimization to signal selection.
- Multi Horizon Confirmation — Validates signals across the 3 day, 7 day, 14 day, 30 day, 90 day, and 12 month horizons, reducing false positives.
- Behavioral Neutrality — The algorithm has zero emotional reaction to drawdowns. There is no panic selling and no herding into crowded trades, even during weeks like late June 2026 when momentum unwinds hurt many discretionary and systematic funds alike.
- Directional Simplicity — The strategy takes a fully long or fully short position each rebalance cycle, avoiding the hedging costs and pair trade complexity that can compound losses when crowded positioning unwinds.
The Long View
Since January 2020, the I Know First Combined Long/Short Strategy has delivered a +756.45% cumulative return compared to the S&P 500’s +129.10%, while carrying a smaller maximum drawdown than the index it is measured against. A single soft month, like June 2026, does not change that six year picture. Major multi strategy hedge funds have posted strong first half results in 2026, yet none has matched the algorithm’s combination of higher compound growth and lower peak to trough risk since inception.
