PLTR Stock Forecast: Sky’s The Limit

Miles GrauberdThis PLTR Stock Forecast article was written by Miles Grauberd – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights

  • Palantir Expands Army Vantage Partnership with $618.9M Contract
  • Palantir and Anduril to Accelerate AI Capabilities for National Security
  • Palantir Expands Maven Smart System AI/ML Capabilities to Multiple Military Services
  • Palantir Was the Best-Performing Stock in the S&P 500 in 2024, Surging 340%

Overview

Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) is a software company that helps organizations—from global enterprises to defense agencies—harness and act on real-world data at scale. They offer four main platforms: Gotham, which enables AI-powered decision-making for mission-critical operations; Foundry, an enterprise operating system that turns complex data into actionable insights; Apollo, a continuous deployment system for managing software across diverse environments; and AIP, which integrates generative AI directly into operational workflows. By combining human expertise with advanced AI and secure, flexible deployment, Palantir empowers clients to rapidly process massive amounts of data, simulate outcomes, and make informed decisions in real time.

Palantir offices in Palo Alto, California. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

What Makes Palantir Special?

Palantir’s Ontology: A “Digital Twin” for Organizations

A cornerstone of Palantir’s offering is their Ontology—particularly within Foundry. Their Ontology sits atop all the data assets integrated into Palantir’s platform and maps them to real-world items, from physical machinery to financial transactions. This structure transforms how organizations perceive and interact with data, streamlining workflows and decision-making.

Why Ontology Matters:

  • Holistic Data View: Links disparate data to the “real” assets they represent.
  • Scalable Growth: Keeps pace as your organization expands, ensuring data integrity across teams and systems.
  • Actionable Insights: Offers context-based analytics, enabling quick interpretation and strategic pivots.

Examples of an Ontology:

(Source: Palantir)

Palantir’s Advanced AI Software :

Palantir’s software helps organizations—ranging from commercial enterprises to defense agencies—harness and act on real-world data at scale. Their product suite includes four main platforms:

1. Palantir Gotham

Use Case: Palantir Gotham is primarily used by military and defense agencies to interpret and act on vast amounts of data in near real-time.

  • AI-Enabled Operations: Brings together data, user expertise, and AI-driven insights so warfighters can gain situational awareness, anticipate possible outcomes, and decide on the best course of action.
  • Operational Planning: Operators can rapidly create plans using templates they already know, with AI suggesting dependencies, routes, and strategies.
  • Real-Time Simulations: Commanders can compare potential strategies—such as extracting units from a conflict zone—by calculating times, routes, or resource requirements in seconds.

Continuous Improvement: Gotham learns from real-world feedback, refining its AI models to become even more effective.

(Source: Palantir)

2. Palantir Foundry

Use Case: Palantir Foundry acts as the digital operating system for modern enterprises, allowing them to manage data, analytics, and decision-making in one place.

  • Fully Managed SaaS Platform: Offers cloud hosting, data integration, analytics, visualization, and modeling in a single, continuously updated environment.
  • Ontology Layer: A unique “digital twin” of an organization that connects integrated data sets (like transactions or equipment) with real-world objects and concepts. This linkage helps map how every part of a business interacts—whether it’s physical assets, orders, or financial flows.
  • End-to-End Decision Support: Empowers organizations to analyze data, generate insights, and take actions all within one unified workflow.
(Source: Palantir)

3. Palantir Apollo

Use Case: Palantir Apollo serves as an operating system for continuous deployment across diverse environments.

  • Centralized Hub: Maintains the status of all your deployment environments and pushes updates automatically or on demand.
  • Remote Hubs: Designed for isolated networks, kept in sync with the main hub via “Apollo bundles.”
  • Deployment Platform: Runs alongside your software, reporting on its current state, receiving updates, and executing them—whether you’re on Kubernetes or a containerless setup.
  • Seamless Integration: Works with existing build systems like GitHub, CircleCI, and Artifactory to streamline code updates and secure software delivery.
  • Security and Governance: Incorporates best-in-class controls so developers, operators, and security teams can collaborate safely, even in highly regulated environments.
(Source: Palantir)

4. Palantir AIP

Use Case: Palantir AIP connects the power of generative AI to real-world operations.

Allows you to build AI apps, actions, and agents in Workflow Builder — an intuitive workspace designed with next-gen AI builders in mind.

  • AI-driven data pipelining: Integrate LLMs into your pipelines and run them at scale—with error handling, automatic retries, guaranteed outputs schemas, and other production-caliber tooling included.
  • AI-driven logic building: Build, test, and release feature-rich, AI-powered functions that leverage the Ontology within your applications.
  • Workflow visualization: Automatically visualize the objects, functions, and actions that connect your ontology to your applications. Understand the provenance between these entities.
  • Workflow monitoring: Log actions taken and track Ontology metrics to improve and debug workflows.

Palantir’s software platforms—encompassing Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and AIP—provides an end-to-end solution for data integration, AI-powered analytics, and continuous software deployment. Whether you are overseeing global supply chains, managing critical infrastructure, or directing complex military operations, Palantir’s platforms are designed to help you see the full picture and act decisively.

(Source: Palantir)

Standing Out Among Industry Titans

Palantir competes in a market populated by Databricks, Oracle, and Salesforce, each with substantial market share in big data analytics. Despite Palantir’s relatively small slice—about 1.68%—the company’s suite of government partnerships and specialized AI offerings set it apart:

  • Deep Defense Roots: Palantir’s unique access to U.S. Department of Defense infrastructure and data is unrivaled among commercial analytics platforms.
  • Evolving AI Warfare: As CEO Alex Karp notes, “anyone who is leaving the AI warfare race—especially without strong military roots—risks defeat.” Palantir’s pedigree gives it a distinct advantage in the defense AI arena.
  • Dan Ives’ Bullish Take: Tech analyst Dan Ives likens Palantir to “an Oracle and a Salesforce rolled into one—maybe even bigger,” projecting a possible share price of $500 in the coming years. He’s bullish enough that, in his words, “laugh at Palantir and you’ll get killed.”

Palantir Compared to Peers

Salesforce provides applications focused on sales, customer service, marketing, marketing automation, e-commerce, analytics, artificial intelligence, and application development.

Headlines

Palantir Extends Partnership with U.S. Army for Data Platform

  • Renewed Army Vantage Agreement: Valued at $400.7 million over four years, with a ceiling of $618.9 million.
  • Sustained Collaboration: Demonstrates the Army’s confidence in Palantir’s ability to modernize data analytics and real-time decision-making for mission-critical operations.
  • Mission: “transform how it uses data and artificial intelligence (AI) to more effectively perform essential missions and enable faster decision-making across the force” – Company statement.

Palantir and Anduril Unite to Propel AI Leadership for U.S. Government

  • Cutting-Edge Consortium: Palantir’s AIP platform will integrate with Anduril’s Lattice software and Menace systems, harnessing data often lost in national security workflows.
  • End Goal: Accelerate AI model development and secure deployment across multiple classification levels, keeping the U.S. at the forefront of military AI.

Palantir Announces Contract with DEVCOM Army Research Laboratory

  • Five-Year, $99.8 Million Deal: Extends Maven Smart System AI capabilities to the Army, Air Force, Space Force, Navy, and Marine Corps.
  • Enhanced Battlespace Awareness: Operators, sensor data, and AI models merge to deliver faster, more accurate decision-making in complex environments.

Palantir’s Growth: This Is Only the Start

The global landscape is increasingly driven by data—an average of 402 million terabytes of new data generated daily in 2024, projected to rise to 463 million terabytes per day by 2025. Enterprises that fail to adopt AI-driven data solutions risk falling behind more agile, tech-forward competitors.

Palantir is primed to capitalize on this shift:

  • Current TAM: Approximately $120 billion, with Palantir holding an estimated 1.68% share for big data analytics.
  • Projected TAM by 2025: Around $230 billion, offering ample runway for Palantir to grow its market share.

Palantir’s Financial Highlights

Revenue and Profitability

  • U.S. Commercial Revenue: Up 54% year-over-year (y/y) and 13% quarter-over-quarter (q/q).
  • U.S. Government Revenue: Up 40% y/y and 15% q/q.
  • U.S. Commercial Customer Count: Grew to 629 (77% y/y, 9% q/q).
  • GAAP Net Income: $143.5 million, up 100.7% y/y and 7% q/q.
  • Adjusted Operating Income: $276 million with a 38% operating margin.
  • Significant Deals: 104 deals over $1 million, 16 deals over $10 million.
  • EPS: GAAP earnings per share rose 100% y/y to $0.06.
(Source: Palantir)

Cash Flow and Market Performance

  • Free Cash Flow: $416 million in free cash flow, a 194.4% decrease quarter-over-quarter due to high R&D and expansion costs.
  • Cash Reserves: $4.6 billion in cash and cash equivalents.
  • Stock Price Surge: From $16.95 to $75.63 in 2024, a 340% jump—making Palantir the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year.
(Source: Palantir)

Market Position

1.68% Market Share in big data analytics, ranking behind Databricks, Microsoft Azure Synapse, Oracle, and Salesforce.

No. 1 Vendor in AI, Data Science, and Machine Learning by several industry reports, highlighting Palantir’s innovation edge.

Innovative Edge: Palantir was rated the best vendor in AI, data science, and machine learning. The qualifications included analytical features and functions, neural networks, data preparation, usability, ModelOps, scalability, open source support, and access to data sources. A notable trend in this year’s findings is the rapid expansion of generative AI. Organizations are increasingly incorporating generative AI into their operations, with a marked rise in production use, experimental applications, and planned adoption over the next 12 months.

Unique Defense Credentials: Palantir’s tight-knit relationship with the U.S. Department of Defense sets it apart, offering unparalleled government sector opportunities.

Despite a smaller market share, Palantir’s specialization in secure, AI-powered data analysis for both commercial and governmental needs separates it from more generalized enterprise software competitors.

Valuation Concerns: Is Palantir a Bubble?

  • Current P/E Ratio: 385.9, towering above competitors like Salesforce (54.99) and Oracle (40.74).
  • Price-to-Sales Ratio: 72, reflecting the run-up in Palantir’s stock price and the market’s high expectations for future earnings.
  • Analyst Forecast: The consensus 12-month price target sits at $43.90 (high of $80, low of $11), with many recommending a “Hold” due to valuation risks.

Some investors worry that Palantir’s sky-high multiples signal a bubble. Others, including Dan Ives, argue that Palantir’s unique position in AI-driven data analysis—especially its dominance in defense—justifies these valuations.

PLTR Stock Forecast: Analyst’s Consensus:

The market analyst’s forecast PLTR stock to be at an average $43.90, with a high of $80 and a low of $11. Analyst recommendations are primarily “Hold” showing analyst fear over valuation concerns.   

(Source: finance.yahoo.com) 

Outlook for 2025

I maintain a Buy rating on Palantir for 2025, as its AI software ecosystem continues to stand out in a crowded market. Enterprises across various sectors are rapidly adopting Palantir’s solutions, citing significant gains in efficiency and decision-making. This is hardly surprising given Palantir’s track record—its technology has been deployed in critical scenarios like the California wildfires, the COVID-19 response, and highly sensitive military operations. Looking ahead, the company has the potential to evolve into a trillion-dollar enterprise.

Despite the broader market pullback early this year, which saw Palantir’s stock dip from $76 to $64—a drop of more than 15%—the current price range could be an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Still, concerns over valuation linger, raising expectations for Palantir’s upcoming earnings. A less-than-stellar report could drive the share price down to the $44 level, potentially presenting an even stronger buying opportunity. However, for investors willing to look beyond near-term volatility, Palantir’s robust product portfolio, AI leadership, and expanding market presence underscore its compelling growth story.

It’s important to note that I Know First’s stock-picking AI shows a strong buy for the long term and a slightly negative forecast for the short term, which reinforces my outlook on PLTR. The red indicates a negative forecast, a light green indicates a mildly bullish mid-term forecast, while the darker green signifies a strong bullish signal for the one-year projection.

Past Success with PLTR Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on the PLTR stock forecast in the past. On October 7th, 2024 the I Know First algorithm issued a forecast for PLTR stock price and recommended PLTR as one of the best Tech stocks to buy. The AI-driven PLTR stock prediction was successful on a 3-month time horizon, resulting in 61.59%.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.