Oil Forecast For 2015 Based On A Predictive Algorithm

Summary

  • It’s time for a full review of oil market performance in 2014.download
  • What are the consequences of oil price decline?
  • What do analysts expect for the oil market in 2015?
  • I Know First algorithm predicts a bullish forecast for oil in a one-year time horizon.

After almost five years of stability, oil (NYSEARCA:USO) prices have dropped considerably. Since June 2014, when it was at $115 per barrel, the price of oil fell by more than 50%. Today, it is below $50 per barrel.

What Our Algorithm Predicts for 2015

The crash in oil prices was probably the most significant event in the market this year. However, the algorithm predicts that this trend will turn around next year. In 2015, the algorithm is expecting a very volatile oil market for the one- and three-month time horizon. Yet, the algorithm is bullish for the one-year time horizon. As the time horizons increase, the predictability and signal tend to become higher. With the signal strength reaching 52.7 and 153.65 for the NYMEX crude oil futures and ICE brent crude oil, respectively. Also, with predictions reaching 0.35 and 0.56, we can say that oil might be an interesting investment.

Oil appears to be back on track for year-end 2015, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs and market participants agreeing with this forecast. However, as Goldman’s analysts said, much depends upon Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, which could conceivably raise production to counter the cuts made in other Gulf States, even if non-OPEC producers reduce their output to stabilize plunging oil prices.

Read the full article on Seeking Alpha