OCGN Stock Forecast: COVID-19 Vaccine Enables 1007% Surge to Continue in 2021

Viktoria VoronchukThis Ocugen Stock Forecast article was written by Viktoriya Voronchuk – Financial Analyst intern I Know First.


  • Ocugen raised approximately $28 million in gross proceeds during the 2020 year
  • Since December 2020, the company’s share has grown by 1007%
  • DCF Supports $13 OCGN Stock Forecast For 2021


(Source: ir.ocugen.com)

Ocugen, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of transformative therapies to cure blindness diseases and co-developing Bharat Biotech’s Covaxin vaccine candidate for COVID-19 in the US market. The company’s pipeline product includes OCU200, a novel fusion protein that is in the preclinical development stage for the treatment of wet AMD, diabetic retinopathy, and diabetic macular edema; OCU400 to treat retinitis pigmentosa, a group of rare genetic disorders; and OCU410, which is in the preclinical development stage for the treatment of dry AMD. The company is headquartered in Malvern, Pennsylvania.

Much of Ocugen’s expected growth prospects now hinge on its ability to obtain emergency use approval of Covaxin in the United States. Thus, investors must be prepared for volatility in Ocugen’s stock price as it moves towards clinical trials. Since December 2020, the company’s share has grown by 1007%.

( Figure 1 – OCGN Historical Price)

High Logistic Advantages Of Covaxin Vaccine

SWOT is a useful framework for analyzing OCGN in this case. The figure below summarizes the different aspects worth considering when investing in Ocugen today with an outlook for the coming years. 

(Figure 2 – SWOT analysis of Ocugen)

The company raised recently some $28 million in gross proceeds during the 2020 year, expanding its monetary base to further develop its candidate products. Given the dire need for COVID-19 vaccines, if the Indian Phase 3 study displays more than a 50% success rate, Covaxin will have the potential to deliver significant upside in the next 6-12 months.

India’s advantage over other nations like the USA is that most of the Indian market deals with reverse-engineering new processes for manufacturing drugs at a low cost. Bharat Biotech has one of its kind largest pharmaceutical manufacturing plants in Asia-Pacific. Bharat Biotech aims to have a production capacity of about 700 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine this year. Therefore, cooperation with a global biotech industry like Bharat Biotech should lead Ocugen to success. According to the recent press release, Bharat will be eligible for 55% of U.S. sales’ profits, with Ocugen retaining the other 45%. 

Meantime, Ocugen announced the sale of 3 million common shares at $7.65 per share in a registered direct offering, with gross proceeds of $23 million. The offer price represents a premium of 46%, and growth depends on the trials in the USA. The company’s profitability depends on the success of the vaccine realization, and therefore the amount of the premium depends on it.

What is known about the advantages over the main competitors’ products – Pfizer and Moderna? The American vaccine by Moderna and the one developed by Pfizer and BioNTech require much lower storage temperatures of minus 70-80 ° C. At the same time, Covaxin requires a standard vaccine storage temperature of 2-8 ° C and the potential for treatment for all age groups.

DCF Supports $13 Ocugen Stock Forecast For 2021

(Figure 2 – DCF model of OCGN’s shares)

To predict the future value of the OCGN’s shares, I calculated the DCF model for the next five years. The growth rates are calculated on the assumption that they will remain at the average level and the number of the company’s shares will not change. The global Biotechnology Market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 14%. The company’s future income is based on the sale of an average of 300 million vaccine doses and slightly below the average cost of vaccines in the US market. As far as 45% of the profit is taken into account as Bharat will be entitled to receive the remaining 55% of its US sales. Also taken into account is an average of 58% of the US population willing to make a vaccine. The DCF analysis results show that OCGN’s stock target price should be around $13. This projected share price makes $2.50 upside potential or some 24% up from the current share price.

Cooperation with such an influential company as Bharat Biotech provides Ocugen with great opportunities in large deliveries, successful testing of vaccines, and competitiveness with other players. The Ocugen stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. I find these to be enough for a buy candidate.


I take the buy-side on OCGN’s stock because stock holds buy signals from short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast. OCGN shares are up more than 1007% since December of 2020. Cooperation with Bharat Biotech provides Ocugen with great opportunities in large deliveries, successful testing of vaccines, and competitiveness with other players, that SWOT analysis shows. The likelihood that Ocugen will bring substantial long-term returns to investors is high. Therefore, I consider it the right choice at these current levels for long-term investments, and according to the DCF analysis results, OCGN’s stock target price will be around $13. 

It is worth paying attention that the stock-picking AI of I Know First has a high signal on the one-year market trend forecasts, supporting my position for the OCGN stock forecast. The light green for the short-term forecasts is mildly bullish, while the darker green is a strong bullish signal for the one-year forecast.

Past Success With Ocugen Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on OCGN stock forecast in the past. On January 12, 2021, and February 5, 2021, the I Know First algorithm issued forecasts for OCGN stock price and recommended OCGN as one of the best consumer stocks to buy. The AI-driven Ocugen stock prediction was successful both on 1-month and 1-week time horizons resulting in more than a 312% and 216% gain since the forecast dates. See the charts below.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.