This NVDA Stock Forecast article was written by Rain Liu – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights  

• NVIDIA achieved record quarterly revenue of $39.3 billion in Q4 FY25 (ended January 26, 2025), up 78% year-over-year, with Data Center revenue reaching $35.6 billion, representing 90.6% of total revenue.
• NVIDIA’s gross margin exceeded 73% in Q4 FY25, demonstrating exceptional profitability despite increased competition in the AI chip market.
• For calendar year 2025, NVIDIA is projected to reach $180 billion in revenue as AI infrastructure buildout continues globally, with potential upside from new Blackwell architecture adoption. 

Overview 

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has transformed from a gaming graphics company into the world’s most valuable semiconductor company and AI infrastructure powerhouse. Founded in 1993 by Jensen Huang (current CEO), Chris Malachowsky, and Curtis Priem, NVIDIA has become the cornerstone of the artificial intelligence revolution. The company designs graphics processing units (GPUs), system-on-chip units (SoCs), and provides software and services that power everything from gaming to data centers, professional visualization, automotive solutions, and AI computing. 

NVIDIA’s business is now organized into two main segments: Computing & Networking (dominated by Data Center) and Graphics (primarily Gaming). The company’s fiscal year 2025 ended on January 26, 2025, with the company reaching unprecedented heights in both revenue and market capitalization, crossing the $3 trillion threshold in early 2024.

Record-Breaking Financial Performance 

NVIDIA’s financial performance over the past two fiscal years tells a story of unprecedented growth. As shown in the chart above, the company’s quarterly revenue has grown from $7.2 billion in Q1 FY24 to a staggering $39.3 billion in Q4 FY25, representing a 446% increase in just eight quarters. This growth trajectory is virtually unmatched among large-cap technology companies. 

The most striking aspect of this growth is the dominance of Data Center revenue, which has expanded from $4.3 billion in Q1 FY24 to $35.6 billion in Q4 FY25, an astounding 728% increase. This segment now accounts for over 90% of NVIDIA’s total revenue, highlighting the company’s successful pivot from a gaming-focused GPU maker to the world’s premier AI infrastructure provider.

NVIDIA’s financial statements reveal a company experiencing extraordinary growth while maintaining disciplined financial management. Below is a detailed analysis of key financial metrics from the company’s most recent fiscal year (FY25, ended January 26, 2025).

According to NVIDIA’s latest earnings report from February 26, 2025, the company achieved: – Record quarterly revenue of $39.3 billion in Q4 FY25, up 12% from the previous quarter and up 78% year-over-year – Record fiscal 2025 revenue of $130.5 billion, up 114% from fiscal 2024 – GAAP gross margin of 73.0% in Q4 FY25, demonstrating exceptional profitability despite increased competition – GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.89 in Q4 FY25, up 82% year-over-year 

NVIDIA’s quarterly progression throughout FY25 demonstrates consistent sequential growth, with revenue increasing by approximately 20-30% quarter-over-quarter. This steady acceleration reflects the growing demand for AI infrastructure and NVIDIA’s ability to scale production to meet this demand. 

The company’s gross margin expanded sequentially each quarter, reaching 73.0% in Q4 FY25, significantly above the semiconductor industry average of approximately 50-55%. This margin expansion occurred despite increasing competition, highlighting NVIDIA’s pricing power and operational efficiency.  

Operating expenses grew at a much slower rate (+28%) than revenue (+114%), demonstrating strong operational leverage. As a percentage of revenue, operating expenses declined from 23.1% in Q1 to 15.3% in Q4, contributing to the dramatic improvement in operating income. 

CEO Jensen Huang attributed this performance to the explosive demand for NVIDIA’s Blackwell AI supercomputers, stating: “Demand for Blackwell is amazing as reasoning AI adds another scaling law — increasing compute for training makes models smarter and increasing compute for long thinking makes the answer smarter.” 

As of January 26, 2025, cash and investments totaled $26.8 billion, providing substantial financial flexibility. Operating cash flow was $48.7 billion, an increase of 186% compared to the previous year. Free cash flow amounted to $42.3 billion, representing a free cash flow margin of 33.8%.

Performance vs. Expectations

While the magnitude of these beats decreased throughout the year as analysts adjusted their models to account for NVIDIA’s extraordinary growth, the company maintained its track record of exceeding expectations, demonstrating management’s ability to execute and deliver results above market projections.

Forward Guidance 

For Q1 FY26 (ending April 2025), NVIDIA provided guidance for:

• Revenue: $43.0 billion (±2%), representing 65% year-over-year growth
• Gross Margin: 73.5% (±50 basis points), continuing the upward trend
• Operating Expenses: $6.3 billion, reflecting continued investments in R&D and go to-market capabilities

This guidance suggests continued strong momentum in the near term, though the growth rate is moderating from the triple-digit increases seen in previous quarters, reflecting the law of large numbers as NVIDIA’s revenue base expands.

Key Announcements in 2025

NVIDIA has made several significant announcements in 2025 that reinforce its leadership position in AI and accelerated computing: 

Data Center and AI Infrastructure 

• NVLink Fusion Program: Announced in May 2025, this groundbreaking initiative allows customers and partners to use non-NVIDIA CPUs and GPUs in tandem with NVIDIA’s products and software ecosystem. This strategic move expands NVIDIA’s addressable market while maintaining its software ecosystem advantage. 
• Blackwell Ultra AI Factory Platform: Unveiled at GTC 2025 in March, this next generation platform builds on the Blackwell architecture with enhanced capabilities for large-scale AI training and inference. The platform includes advanced liquid cooling technology and higher memory bandwidth, enabling even more complex AI model development. 
• Cloud Partnerships Expansion: NVIDIA announced new integrations with major cloud providers. Enhanced collaboration with Google Cloud for AI model training and deployment New Microsoft Azure products including Azure AI Supercomputing Infrastructure powered by NVIDIA GB200 systems. Expanded partnership with AWS to make NVIDIA’s full software stack available through AWS Marketplace. 

Automotive and Autonomous Systems 

• Toyota Partnership: NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership with Toyota for developing next-generation autonomous vehicles using the NVIDIA DRIVE AGX in vehicle computer running NVIDIA DRIVE software stack. This marks a significant expansion of NVIDIA’s automotive business. 
• DRIVE Thor Updates: NVIDIA released enhanced capabilities for its DRIVE Thor platform, including improved perception systems and expanded support for sensor fusion, positioning the company to capture more value in the rapidly evolving autonomous vehicle market. 

AI Software and Services 

• Agentic AI Blueprints: Launched in early 2025, these enterprise-focused frameworks help organizations build and deploy AI agents that can automate complex workflows across various industries, from manufacturing to healthcare. 
• NVIDIA AI Enterprise 6.0: Released in April 2025, this software suite includes enhanced support for multi-cloud deployments, improved security features, and expanded industry-specific AI workflows. 
• NIM 2.0 Microservices: NVIDIA introduced the next generation of its NIM microservices with improved performance, lower latency, and expanded model support, strengthening its position in the AI inference market. 

Gaming and Consumer

• GeForce RTX 50 Series: Announced at CES 2025 in January, these next-generation consumer GPUs based on the Blackwell architecture deliver significant performance improvements for gaming and content creation, with enhanced ray tracing capabilities and AI-powered features. 
• DLSS 4.0: NVIDIA’s latest Deep Learning Super Sampling technology provides even better image quality and performance, maintaining the company’s edge in gaming graphics technology. 

These announcements demonstrate NVIDIA’s continued innovation across multiple markets and its strategy to maintain leadership in AI computing while expanding into adjacent areas. The company’s ability to execute across hardware, software, and services positions it well for continued growth throughout 2025 and beyond. 

Valuation Metrics

This targeted peer comparison provides a more nuanced view of NVIDIA’s position within the semiconductor ecosystem, focusing on companies that either compete directly with NVIDIA or provide complementary technologies in the semiconductor value chain. 

NVIDIA’s current P/E ratio of 34.72 is close to the peer average of 37.82, suggesting that despite its extraordinary growth, the stock is not significantly overvalued relative to other high-quality semiconductor peers. Among its direct competitors, AMD trades at the highest P/E ratio of 61.99, despite having a growth rate approximately 30% lower than NVIDIA. Meanwhile, TXN offers a similar P/E ratio to NVIDIA, yet its growth rate is only about 1/45th of NVIDIA’s.

However, NVIDIA’s P/S ratio of 23.43 is nearly double the peer average of 12.56, and its P/B ratio of 41.3 is almost three times the peer average of 14.15. These elevated multiples reflect the premium investors are willing to pay for NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI computing and its future growth potential.

Additionally, NVIDIA boasts the highest EBITDA margin among its peers, nearly matching its revenue growth rate, which is more than twice the industry average. This indicates that NVIDIA’s valuation remains reasonable when considering its exceptional profitability and industry-leading growth.

This peer comparison highlights NVIDIA’s exceptional standing in the semiconductor industry, with a growth rate that far exceed its peers. While its valuation metrics are elevated, they are justified by its dominant role in AI, industry-leading revenue growth, and highest EBITDA margin among competitors.

NVDA Stock Forecast: Viewpoints from Analyst Community 

The analyst community maintains a broadly positive outlook on NVIDIA stock, though with some divergence in price targets reflecting different perspectives on valuation and growth sustainability.

Based on data sourced from Yahoo Finance, the overwhelming majority of analysts rated the stock as Buy (71%) or Strong Buy (18%) and the average price target is $172.11.

NVDA Stock Forecast: Conclusion

Looking ahead to the remainder of 2025, NVIDIA is well-positioned to continue its growth trajectory, though likely at a more moderate pace than the explosive expansion seen in 2023-2024. The company’s technological leadership, expanding software ecosystem, and strategic partnerships provide a strong foundation for continued success, even as competition intensifies and the AI infrastructure market matures. For investors, NVIDIA represents exposure to one of the most transformative technological trends of our time. While the premium valuation creates some risk, the company’s execution and market position suggest it remains an attractive investment for those with a long-term perspective on the AI revolution. 

It is worth paying attention that the stock-picking AI of I Know First has a high signal on the one-year market trend forecasts. The light green for the short-term forecasts is mildly bullish, while the darker green is a strong bullish signal for the one-year forecast.

Past Success with NVDA Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on the NVDA stock forecast in the past. On May 12^th, 2025 the I Know First algorithm issued a forecast for NVDA stock price and recommended NVDA as one of the best Implied Volatility stocks to buy. The AI-driven NVDA stock prediction was successful on a 1-month time horizon, resulting in more than 24.30%.

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