Market Prediction System Predicts Bumpy Road Ahead For BlackBerry (Click For Full Story)

BlackBerry (BBRY)

BlackBerry (BBRY) has witnessed its market share plummet over the past few years, being surpassed by Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG, GOOGL). Even in Indonesia, the company’s last bastion of strength, Android has surpassed BlackBerry. In 2011, BlackBerry held 43% of the market share in Indonesia, but that number has diminished down to 13% in 2013, while Google’s Android OS has taken over 81% of the market share.

The emergence of cheap phones utilizing Android’s OS has been a major reason for this downfall. Last year, many investors were hopeful for the successful launch of the BB10 platform. Despite encouraging signs early on, sales were short of BlackBerry’s expectations. The Z10 failed to convert users of Android and iPhone and even the Q10, despite the QWERTY keyboard, was not popular enough amongst the company’s user base to generate satisfactory sales. The second generation has arrived with the release of the Z3 smartphone, which is currently available in Indonesia. Eventually, the phone will be sold in some of the other markets in Southeast Asia. Currently, our self-learning algorithm has a bearish forecast for the Canadian telecommunication and wireless equipment company for the 1-month, 3-month and 1-year time horizon. The market prediction system is 100% empirical, which means that it is based on historical data and not on any human derived assumptions. The human factor is only involved in building the mathematical framework and initially presenting the system with the “starting set” of inputs and outputs, which is also utilized for recognizing over 1,400 other market opportunities. From that point onwards, the algorithm takes over, constantly proposing “theories” and repeatedly testing them automatically on years of daily market data. It then validates them on the most recent data, which prevents over-fitting. While we are bearish on BlackBerry, we have no positions on BBRY or malicious intentions, and the market prediction process is analogous for every asset tracked. There is a lot of risk concerning this stock that its investors must accept, and bankruptcy is certainly a possibility for BlackBerry. On the other hand, BBRY has assets that could prove to be profitable, but they would have to be executed very well for this to be reflected in share value. The company has a history of missing the ball and as this company is a high profile brand, any slip-ups are magnified. On Yahoo (YHOO) Finance, the mean recommendation score is 3.4, where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 indicates a sell position. BlackBerry will likely not perform well enough to increase share value, and any progress will likely be outweighed by negative prospects that will pull the stock down over the forecasted time horizon. The Z3 In December, BlackBerry proclaimed a five-year partnership agreement with the largest multinational electronics contract manufacturer Foxconn (OTC:FXCOF). Together, both companies will conjointly design entry-level smartphones, and Foxconn is responsible for inventory management, manufacturing, and procurement, greatly reducing risk for BlackBerry. The first product under this arrangement is the Z3. This phone is priced just under $200 and directly competes with Google in the entry-level market. The phone has a 5-megapixel camera and an impressive 5-inch touchscreen. Unfortunately, based on its inexpensive price tag, the phone will produce limited gross profit despite potentially strong sales performance. This profit would also have to be shared with Foxconn…

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