What Happened in 2014 Globally?

I Know First is a financial services firm that utilizes an advanced self-learning algorithm to analyze, model and predict the stock market. The algorithm predicts the flow of money in almost 2000 markets across a range of time frames (e.g., 3-day, 1-month, 1-year). The algorithm’s predictability becomes stronger in the 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year horizons, so it is particularly useful as a long investment tool, albeit that it can also be used for intraday trading.

In the article “Stock Market Forecast For 2015 Based On A Predictive Algorithm” from December 17th, 2014 I Know First was very bullish for all US equity markets going into 2015; however, since then the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA:SPY) have gone up by 4.4%. The algorithm updated the growth projection for US markets in this forecast to stable with low volatility. This makes global markets much more attractive, and brings new strong players.

The top 10 world indices to buy hit ratio in 2014 was 100%. Not only that, the average return was 11%, an impressive achievement. On the left is our original 1 year projection from 2013 and on the right our performance review.

Now in 2015 our opinion is updated and based on the latest data we release the interactive chart below.

Interactive Investment Map

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The original forecast table

How to interpret this diagram:

Algorithmic Stock Forecast: The table on the left is the stock forecast produced by I Know First’s algorithm. Each day, subscribers receive forecasts for six different time horizons. The top ten stocks in the 1-month forecast may be different than those in the 1-year forecast. In the included table, only the relevant tickers have been included. A green box represents a positive forecast, while a red represents a negative forecast. The boxes are then arranged according to their respective signal and predictability values (see below for detailed definitions).

Forecast Performance:The table on the right compares the actual stock performance with I Know First’s prediction. The column titled “Forecast” shows which direction the algorithm predicted, and the column “% Change” shows the actual stock performance over the indicated time period. The “Accuracy” column shows a “√” if the algorithm correctly predicted the direction of the stock or an “x” if the forecast was incorrect. The I Know First Average is the equal-weights average percent change of the stocks listed below, and the S&P 500 may be included for reference if relevant.

Signal: This indicator represents the predicted movement direction/trend; not a percentage or specific target price. The signal strength indicates how much the current price deviates from what the system considers an equilibrium or “fair” price.

Predictability: This value is obtained by calculating the correlation between the current prediction and the actual asset movement for each discrete time period. The algorithm then averages the results of all the prediction points, while giving more weight to recent performance. As the machine keeps learning, the values of P generally increase.

The Algorithm: The system is a predictive algorithm that is based on Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms. The system’s predictive analytics are self-updating, and thus live. The algorithm is a powerful resource for any investor conducting black-box trading or algotrading.