Intel Stock Prediction

The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First. 

Summary:

• Intel is a leader in backing the open-source Linux OS kernel development. It makes sense for Intel to also start backing the development of ReactOS.
• ReactOS is an open-source operating system for x86/x64 computers. ReactOS is being developed to run Windows-centric software at native hardware level.
• Independent programmers are developing ReactOS from the ground-up. It is legal and Microsoft can do nothing about it.
• The most recent Alpha version of ReactOS now supports Windows NT6+ software. It means ReactOS is now compatible with software made for Windows Vista, Windows 7, and Windows 10.
• ReactOS is an optimized operating system than can even run on old computers with RAM as little as 96 megabytes. Intel can use ReactOS to start promoting Windows-like smartphones.

It is an open secret that Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows operating system is a bloated piece of work. It is why Intel (INTC) has been an enthusiastic backer of alternative operating systems. Intel supplies processors for Chrome OS computers and Android tablets. Intel is also the lead contributor to Linux Kernel development.

It makes perfect sense for Intel to also back the development of the open-source ReactOS operating system. ReactOS is a lightweight (more RAM/CPU efficient) and free alternative to the proprietary Windows desktop operating system of Microsoft.

Like Microsoft’s operating system, ReactOS can run 32-bit/64-bit Win32 Windows software made using Intel’s x86 Instruction Set Architecture. The latest Alpha version of ReactOS now offers experimental support for Windows NT6+ software programs. ReactOS can gradually work with apps made for Windows Vista, Windows 7, and Windows 10.

The previous versions of ReactOS were only suitable for legacy software made for Windows Server 2003 and Windows XP. ReactOS’ new support for modern Windows software can make it a compelling alternative to people who dislike Windows 10 and Linux. Since it is open-source, home and business users can create more secure versions of ReactOS. The aggressive personal data-gathering focus of Windows 10 is anathema to many people. ReactOS is free to use and privacy-friendly.

Why Intel Should Help The Developers of ReactOS

Microsoft has ended support for Windows Server 2003 and Windows XP. Unfortunately, there are still users who rely on custom-made software meant to run only on Microsoft’s older operating systems. Intel making substantial effort to  fast-track the development of ReactOS is highly desirable. Since it functions like Windows 2003, ReactOS is more user-friendly. ReactOS can be developed to have far greater universal software compatibility than Linux or MacOS can.

My hands-on experience revealed that ReactOS can run Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop CS2, Microsoft Office 2003, and Macromedia FreeHand MX. These are old software, more than 13 years old. However, people like still use them because they are less-demanding on CPU/RAM. There’s a list of fully compatible Windows games too. The old 0.43 version of ReactOS can already run complex 3D modelling/animation software like Blender. The new 0.48 version should be compatible with more content creation software.

Intel can help make ReactOS become a viable operating system for legacy Windows software by providing hardware drivers and optimization tools. Intel’s huge effort to make Linux better is also why third-party PC peripherals now also release Linux-friendly hardware drivers. The same thing should also happen when Intel starts backing ReactOS. Intel supported Android, Chrome OS, and Linux because it wants its desktop, mobile, and server processors to stay relevant on whatever devices people choose to use. Intel doesn’t have to worry about risking the wrath of Microsoft. Microsoft cannot complain about ReactOS. ReactOS is being developed from scratch and it never used any API or kernel code from Windows.

ReactOS Can Make Intel x86 Processors Smartphone-friendly

The lightweight design of ReactOS makes it a valid smartphone-friendly operating system. Microsoft has failed to build a smartphone presence because its mobile port of Windows 8 and Windows 10 still failed to win the support of software developers. The less-demanding ReactOS could be modified to run on an Intel-powered smartphone. With the assistance of Intel, ReactOS phones could run millions of legacy Win32 software and games. In other words, there are over a million x86 Windows apps that could give ReactOS smartphones a ready app ecosystem. Intel can use its upcoming more energy-efficient 10-nanometer Atom processors on ReactOS smartphones. My idea is feasible. ReactOS was already used in a Samsung (SSNLF) smartphone four years ago. This operating system is so lightweight that it could run on a Galaxy S3 Mini.  The S3 Mini was a 2012-era smartphone.

Conclusion

Intel does not need to give money to the developers of ReactOS. Intel only needs to provide access to better x86 win32 software optimization and expanded third-party hardware drivers. For example, Intel should share its updated drivers and utility tools for its integrated graphics processing units. ReactOS also needs better compatibility with the new generation of Intel processors, chipsets, and modems. The bottom line is ReactOS could make Intel x86 Atom processors become viable for smartphones again. Microsoft has chosen Qualcomm’s (QCOM) ARM-based Snapdragon processors for its Windows Mobile devices and cellular PCs. It is high time that Intel answers Microsoft’s transgression by unveiling ReactOS smartphones and cellular PCs with x86 Atom processors. I rate INTC as a hold. I Know First also doesn’t have a bullish algorithmic forecast for Intel’s stock.

Past I Know First Forecast Success with Intel

I Know First has made accurate predictions on INTC in the past, such as its 3 months bullish article published on September 10, 2017. In the article, we discussed how Intel’s dominant market share in PC processors was safe because Apple continues to ignore AMD’s Ryzen/Threadripper processors,  in spite of the proclamations of other PC vendors supporting the Ryzen processors of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). Since the article’s release, INTC shares have increased by 21.19% in line with the I Know First algorithm’s forecast. See chart below.

(Source: Yahoo Finance)

This bearish forecast for INTC was sent to I Know First subscribers on September 10, 2017. 

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I Know First Algorithm Heatmap Explanation

The sign of the signal tells in which direction the asset price is expected to go (positive = to go up = Long, negative = to drop = Short position), the signal strength is related to the magnitude of the expected return and is used for ranking purposes of the investment opportunities.

Predictability is the actual fitness function being optimized every day, and can be simplified explained as the correlation based quality measure of the signal. This is a unique indicator of the I Know First algorithm. This allows users to separate and focus on the most predictable assets according to the algorithm. Ranging between -1 and 1, one should focus on predictability levels significantly above 0 in order to fill confident about/trust the signal.

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