I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: May 20th, 2021

I Know First
Weekly Newsletter | May 20th, 2021

Good morning, I Know First universe.
We’re happy to share our best article and stock prediction of the week:
  • Top Trade Ideas – Stock Predictions Based on Genetic Algorithms: Returns up to 25.77% in 3 Days
Top 20 Stock Picks For Today Based on AI-Powered Predictive Algorithm + Top ETF’s to Buy

Need To Know First!

  • Stock Predictions Based on Genetic Algorithms: Returns up to 25.77% in 3 Days

  • Best Stocks To Buy Based on Artificial Intelligence: Returns up to 10.07% in 7 Days

  • Consumer Staples Stocks Based on Big Data: Returns up to 73.66% in 14 Days

  • Consumer Staples Stocks Based on Predictive Analytics: Returns up to 83.96% in 1 Month

  • Best Hedge Fund Stocks Based on Big Data Analytics: Returns up to 205.19% in 3 Months

  • Strong Buy Stocks Based on Pattern Recognition: Returns up to 208.62% in 1 Year

  • Dillard’s (DDS) Stock returns up to 178.56% since November 3, 2020, as it still has vast real estate holdings and is showing the ability to keep operating costs flat. The stock jumped 22% last Friday.

  • DXC Technology (DXC) Stock returns up to 52.44% since December 8, 2020, as with relatively new management and recent big contract renewals, the company’s future is looking brighter.

  • Capri Holdings (CPRI) Stock returns up to 26.81% since January 10, 2021, as the reopening of retail centers is helping the company’s growth.

Weekly Winning Forecasts

3 Days
Implied Volatility: 25.77% Yield
High P/E Stocks: 5.29% Average
Top Tech Stocks: 54.86% Return

7 Days
Insider Trades: 70.91% Return
Top S&P 500 Stocks: 10.07% Yield
Best ETF To Buy: 3.42% Average
14 Days
Consumer Stocks: 73.66% Return
Stocks Under $20: 73.98% Yield
Energy Stocks: 8.07% Average
1 Month
Consumer Stocks: 83.96% Return
Chemical Stocks: 23.33% Yield
Top 10 Stocks: 5.27% Average

3 Months
Hedge Fund Stocks: 205.19% Yield
S&P 500 Stocks: 21.46% Average
Warren Buffet Stocks: 41.8% Return
1 Year
Hedge Fund Stocks: 3772.16% Yield
Stocks Under $5: 1010.69% Return
Strong Buy Stocks: 91.34% Average


3 Days:
Returns up to 44.99% in 3 Days

May 6 | Read More

7 Days:
81.82% Hit Ratio in 7 Days

May 13 | Read More

14 Days:
Returns up to 75.95% in 14 Days

May 16 | Read More
1 Month:
Returns up to 81.66% in 1 Month
May 16 |
Read More

3 Months:
100% Hit Ratio in 3 Months
May 16 |
Read More

1 Year:
Returns up to 402.13% in 1 Year
May 16 |
Read More
☆ Top 10 Stocks to Buy Today: Predicting This Week’s Winning Stocks By Using Deep-Learning + Top Cryptocurrencies ☆

Snippets From Our Top Blog Posts For The Week:

Stay Ahead Of The Curve: AI Weekly

Stock Market Prediction: AI And Chaos Theory

There have been many attempts to model the inner workings that make markets tick the way they do, starting from those as fundamental as the Smithsonian unseen hand correcting all the wrongs. However, when it comes to things less abstract and academic, one of the main questions on everybody’s minds is whether the market and, more specifically, stock market predictions are a possibility or not.

If you are willing to dabble in algo-trading, consider I Know First – an Israel-based AI stock market predictions company that has been in the industry for almost 10 years. What this means is that our proprietary algorithm, built on a massive database with the application of artificial neural networks and genetic coding techniques, has had plenty of time to adjust itself to the dynamics of the stock market and polish off its models and formulas. The philosophy behind its design partially draws from the chaos theory, viewing the stock markets as complex systems where minor events can have major repercussions.

Read more.

Day Trading Strategy: An In-depth Analysis of Realistic Back-Tests

While the I Know First algorithmic predictions for short-term stocks are often utilized for their relevance in timing mid and long-term investments, we back-test their ability to exploit market trends and offer high returns through multiple-day trading models. In this article, we explored one of the I Know First strategies in more detail to better understand the limitations and adjustments needed to implement it most efficiently when live-trading.

After identifying specific implementation limitations in trading close to close, we were able to shift our simulation to trade from open-to-close without significantly impacting the algorithm’s performance. Although the slippage and commissions models reduced our total returns (light blue line to blue), the addition of an intraday means reversion rule allowed us to further leverage the algorithm’s daily predictions. This considerably improved our strategy’s returns, even above the slippage- and commission-free back-test levels. In conclusion, this analysis shows that the presented strategy is practically implementable in real-world day trading and able to yield high returns.

Read more.

Stock Picking Algorithms: The Machine Advantage

How do Stock Picking Algorithms work? Those who seek adventures might look for companies in the news or those companies that are rumored to be taking over. If they hear positive news, they buy the stock, with hopes that the stock will go higher. Some of us are lucky, but most of us aren’t, and, therefore, we lose money. Is luck related to it at all?

In conclusion, stock picking algorithms simply are not magically going to do the job for investors. One can follow the fundamentals, the daily price moves, the company reports, the news, the competitors, the suppliers, the patents, the lawsuits, the weather, and more to predict the stock market. Some forecasts could have been produced by those who follow what I mentioned above. However, algorithms are completely different, using computers and logic.

Read more.

Trading Fast And Slow

It would be an obvious truism to say that the pace of life is increasing by the day. Faster travel with high-speed rail and planes, faster communication with new and new generations of wireless networks, faster data-crunching enabled by top-notch hardware… “Faster” is also the keyword when it comes to trading – or, at least, it used to be, because the appetite for high-frequency trading is seemingly lowering. Is it time to push the brakes instead of putting the pedal to the metal? What are the respective benefits of trading fast and slow, and which one is better for you?

AI can identify and predict the longer-term direction of the market and the strength of the trend. Knowing that one can use it to get the best intra-day entry points in the market can get pretty chaotic now and then.

Read more here

How Deep Learning Works In The Stock Market And How to Utilize It for Investment Decisions

To value the company or predict the stock return are major concerns for investors. Investors are trying to find as many indicators as possible that could effectively provide explanatory power for the stock performance, thus making favorable decisions.

I Know First has years of experience solving complex problems via artificial intelligence. Our forecast algorithms are based on our belief that the markets are complex and chaotic and the movement “memory” in the non-linear evolving system can be learned. We utilize Deep Learning methods along with other machine learning techniques to learn the inputs from different sources and apply different valuation models for estimates in different time horizons.

Read more.

Want to learn more?

Letter from the CEO

Dear clients,

In the decade following the 2008 financial crisis, the main problem was the weak consumer demand. The market was worried about falling prices (deflation). Now the picture has changed.

U.S. consumers have increased their savings by $ 2 trillion in the past year as a result of assistance they received from the administration. Now, after sitting at home for a year, they want to spend money on goods and services. The problem, for the first time in a decade, is a shortage. There are bottlenecks in ports everywhere. When that happens, inflation goes up.

What affected the market more than the whole week were the inflation data released on Tuesday and indicated a rise in prices (excluding food and energy) of 3.0% compared to last year and an expectation of 2.3%.

These figures have pushed the S&P500 above 4% from its peak. Even after a nice recovery on Thursday and Friday, the index still fell on a weekly basis (in parentheses from the beginning of the year) by 1.4% (+11.7%). The NASDAQ fell 2.3% (+4.5%), the Dow fell 1.1% (+13.1%) while the Russell 2000 fell 2% (+13.0%).

Below the surface, the sectors driving the market have undergone a dramatic change in recent months. Due to the reopening of the economy, in the last 6 months, the ETF on the energy sector (XLE) has risen by 62%, the ETF on the regional banks (KRE) has risen by 47% while the ETF on natural minerals (GNR) has risen by 39%.

Of course, the AI Algorithm was able to identify this trend with a positive forecast for the energy sector (XOP, OIH, IXC, USO), regional banks (FAS, KBE), and Retail industry (XRT).

In contrast, in the last 3 months, there has been a sharp decline in the prices of sectors that traded at high multipliers: the TAN renewable energy basket fell by 40%, the basket fund of Chinese Internet companies (KWEB) fell by 33%, the Ark Innovation basket fell by 33% She, too, and the Biotech Basket Fund (XBI) fell by 23%. Companies that make electric cars, investor-friendly in 2020, have also gone down. Tesla was down 28% while NIO was down 44%.

But what is happening here? We may have the answer in the former chief strategist of Merrill Lynch, Richard Berstein.

Specialized in analyzing the behavior of different sectors under different market conditions, Bernstein wrote in his excellent book “Navigate The Noise” that the stock market always pays a premium for what is lacking and is willing to pay relatively little for what is in excess. Therefore, periods of strong growth in the economy, such as the present, are characterized by a relative weakness of growth sectors and a relative strength of value sectors that grow relatively slowly.

For each US index or sector, it is possible to find a package that our algorithm was able to identify opportunities and stock picks.

If you want to check all the variety of packages we offer alongside cryptocurrency forecasts, click here.

Warmest Regards
Yaron Golgher, Co-Founder and CEO
Q&A With I Know First
I Know First’s Daily Market Forecasts And How to Interpret the Numbers
Q. What is the time horizon?
A. The time horizon is the suggested period of time to hold the suggested stocks. When we calculate the forecast performance, we do so from the forecast date through the end of the time horizon.

Q. What do the colors indicate?
A. The green boxes signify long predictions and the red boxes signify short predictions. The bright shades denote the strongest predictions.

Q. How should I use the predictabilities and signals?
A. It is recommended that investors consider both the signal strength and predictability, as a highly predictable stock that barely moves and an unpredictable stock that is projected to move drastically both make unattractive investments.

Q. Which time horizons should I follow?
A. The longer-term forecasts (1-month and 3-month) tend to have higher predictabilities as the algorithm can more easily spot long-term trends. We suggest following these two time horizons the most closely, but the more reactionary shorter term horizons are helpful in understanding the short-term volatility of the market. Perhaps if you see that a stock with a strong, positive 3-month prediction has a negative short-term forecast, it is a good idea to wait until the stock decreases in value before buying it.
Get Access to the Latest Heatmap + Daily Market Forecasts!

Commodities, Gold & Currencies

Gold Outlook:
Returns up to 9.47% in 1 Month

May 13 | Read More

Commodity Outlook:
Returns up to 12.03% in 1 Month

May 13 | Read More

Forex Forecast:
67.31% Hit Ratio in 1 Year

May 13 | Read More
Gold Price Forecast:
Returns up to 4.2% in 14 Days
May 12 |
Read More

Currency Forecast:
76.0% Hit Ratio in 1 Month
May 12 |
Read More

Commodity Price Forecast:
Returns up 9.21% in 14 Days
May 13 |
Read More
Find The Latest Top Commodities and Currency Pairs With AI Insight

Weekly Apple Stock Update

In this week’s Apple stock news, we discuss the performance of the Apple stock forecast generated by the I Know First AI Algorithm for the AAPL stock. The analysis covers the time period from 1st October 2019 to 1st January 2021, from time horizons ranging from 3 days to 1 year.

Through the results, we could see that we at I Know First have developed an algorithm that can consistently predict AAPL stock movements throughout various time periods.

On average, I Know First has achieved the incredible feat of hitting AAPL exact movement 100% of the time for the 1-year prediction time horizon. This, in essence, means that the algorithm was correct all the time on the 1-year time horizon, allowing our clients to make the safest investments.

Also, we can also predict the 3-day time horizon, 7-day time horizon, 14-day time horizon, one-month time horizon, and 3-months time horizon at 57%, 65%, 68%, 62%, and 73% accuracy respectively. The increased volatility has impacted the short time horizons compared to the previous forecast. However, the hit ratio has remained with high predictability over long time horizons. This allows our investors to have a safer outlook when investing despite these quick and volatile time periods.

This means that I Know First customers could be highly certain in the forecasts they are getting are based on statistically meaningful relationships picked up by the AI algorithm in the fresh market data and can be used as a solid basis for decision-making amid these volatile time periods. Apple now accounts for about 7% of the total market value of the S&P 500.

Read more.
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