I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: December 18th, 2023



I Know First
Weekly Newsletter | December 18th, 2023


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Good morning, I Know First universe.
We’re happy to share our best article and stock prediction of the week:
  • Top Trade Ideas – Top Stock Picks Based on Algo Trading: Returns up to 107.69% in 14 Days
  • Top Featured Article – NFLX Stock Forecast: Navigating Growth, Valuation, and Industry Dynamics in the Streaming Era
I Know First Names its Top Stock Picks for 2024 — Giving 3 Over 60% Upside

Need To Know First!

  • Top Stock Picks Based on Pattern Recognition: Returns up to 30.84% in 3 Days
  • Home Builders Stocks Based on Genetic Algorithms: Returns up to 36.24% in 7 Days
  • Top Stock Picks Based on Algo Trading: Returns up to 107.69% in 14 Days
  • Implied Volatility Options Based on Data Mining: Returns up to 177.08% in 1 Month
  • Top Stock Picks Based on Genetic Algorithms: Returns up to 49.5% in 3 Months
  • Home Builders Stocks Based on Data Mining: Returns up to 235.47% in 1 Year
  • Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) is up 8.78% since November 20, 2023, the company’s broad product portfolio and strategic customer relationships are expected to drive profitable growth, capitalizing on the expanding semiconductor industry.
  • Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) is up 19.19% since October 9th, 2023, since the growth in Nights and Experiences Booked and Gross Booking Value has promoted growth in revenue and stock value.
  • Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) is up 28.22% since July 12, 2023, since Broadcom Inc.’s revenue growth is back in double-digit mode, with an outstanding revenue record in 2022 and a strong net margin.

Weekly Winning Forecasts

3 Days
Top 10 Stocks: 30.84% Return
Implied Volatility: 30.13% Average
Ark ETF: 25.83% Yield

 
7 Days
Home Builders: 36.24% Yield
Top 10 Stocks: 32.44% Return
Insider Trades: 30.03% Average

 
14 Days
Top Stocks: 107.69% Yield
Implied Volatility: 107.69% Return
Insider Trades: 65.71% Average
1 Month
Implied Volatility: 177.08% Return
Hedge Funds: 97.43% Yield
Short Interest: 64.23% Average

3 Months
Top 10 Stocks: 49.50% Yield
Tech Stocks: 94.02% Return
Retail Stocks: 93.90% Return

1 Year
Home Builders: 235.47% Return
Computers: 188.40% Average Tech Giants: 74.28% Yield

Cryptocurrencies
3 Days: 67.18% Return
7 Days: 379.45% Return
14 Days: 379.45% Return

1 Month: 379.45% Return
3 Months: 446.45% Return
☆ I Know First AI-Predictive Algorithm Has Increased Conviction In These 5 Stocks – View Them HERE ☆

Snippets From Our Top Blog Posts For The Week:

Stay Ahead Of The Curve: AI Weekly

NFLX Stock Forecast: Navigating Growth, Valuation, and Industry Dynamics in the Streaming Era

Netflix is well-positioned to thrive in the video streaming industry due to its strategy of developing local content and its affordable pricing tiers. While the North American market may be reaching saturation, there is significant potential for expansion in Asia and other regions. The industry is also experiencing consolidation, with larger platforms like Netflix achieving profitability while smaller platforms struggle. Streaming is becoming the dominant form of media consumption, and Netflix’s focus on customer satisfaction gives it a competitive advantage. Despite facing competition, Netflix remains a significant player in the market. In terms of financial performance, Netflix generates the majority of its revenue from streaming services and has a healthy profit margin. Its revenue growth rate is declining but is still above the industry median. Netflix also outshines its industry peers in terms of profitability and operational efficiency. Its operating margin, Return on Assets, Return on Equity, net margin, and Return on Invested Capital are all well above the industry median. The company effectively controls costs and generates consistent profits. When compared to its peers, Netflix appears to be undervalued in terms of its earnings, assets, and cash flow. Its valuation metrics suggest room for growth and potential for market correction. In conclusion, Netflix is a leading entertainment provider with a global subscriber base. It has successfully navigated the competitive streaming landscape and is well-positioned for future growth. The company’s financial strength and market position make it an attractive proposition for investors.

Read more.


Stock Forecast Based on AI: Tiered Investment Strategy with the Majority Direction

I Know First has developed a trading strategy using AI algorithms to forecast stock movements. The strategy involves constructing a tier-weighted portfolio with monthly rebalancing based on the majority direction of the stock forecasts. The strategy trades GICS level 2 ETFs and allocates 90% weight to equities and 10% weight to two selected industries. The portfolio is rebalanced on a monthly basis. The strategy has provided a positive return of 150.93%, exceeding the returns of the S&P 500. The AI algorithm used by I Know First analyzes inputs and creates models using historical data, refining them daily as new data becomes available. This algorithmic system adapts to the market every day while still following general historical rules. I Know First offers investment solutions to institutional clients based on their specific needs and preferences.

Read more.


Algorithmic Trading: Wisdom Of The Crowd vs. Algorithmic Trading

In “The Wisdom of Crowds,” Surowiecki provides examples of how crowds can be wise and accurate. For example, at a town fair, the average of the crowd’s guesses about the weight of an ox was often an accurate indicator. This concept can also be applied to finance, but evidence shows that the crowd is often wrong in financial markets due to human errors and emotions. Therefore, algorithmic trading has become a popular alternative as it uses complex mathematical models to generate predictions. Algorithmic trading, especially with the use of artificial intelligence, is a leading trend in the industry. Companies like I Know First have been early adopters of this approach and have developed algorithms that predict the flow of money between markets and investment channels. These algorithms rely solely on quantitative reasoning and eliminate human error. They are also self-learning and continuously evolve based on new data. The strength of these algorithms lies in their ability to accurately predict the direction and magnitude of price shifts. Ultimately, these algorithms provide a quantitative push to help investors detect and add profitable signals to their portfolios. However, it is important to consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Read more.


Unpacking the Ins and Outs of a Chaotic System – How Can We Predict it

Chaos theory can be applied to predict stock markets by analyzing data and identifying trends that humans cannot see. Chaos theory is evident in natural systems like earthquakes, weather, and population growth. Randomness is the opposite of chaos, where past data does not predict the future, and statistical values do not change over time. Chaos is characterized by constantly changing statistics and the lack of ergodicity. Stability, memory, and sudden and drastic change are the key properties of chaotic systems that allow for prediction using probability. The stock market is a chaotic system that can be modeled using the 1/f noise model. The psychology of trading and feedback loops contribute to the chaotic nature of the stock market, but these patterns can be recognized and predicted by algorithms. The I Know First Market Prediction System uses artificial intelligence and machine learning to forecast stock trends and helps traders make informed decisions. The model is based on historical data and separates predictable information from random noise. It provides a predicted trend and wave chart to guide traders. It is important to consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Read More.

Best Dividend Stocks: Grow Your Wealth Steadily With Dividend Investing

PG (Procter & Gamble) is a consumer product manufacturer that has consistently increased its dividend for 63 years. Its strong portfolio of consumer brands provides stability and growth, regardless of the state of the economy. Dividend payout and stock price often correlate, as dividends boost investor confidence. Other companies that have maintained dividends during the recent crisis include Enterprise Products Partners, IBM, and W.P. Carey. These companies have solid business strategies and attractive dividend yields. Not all companies pay dividends, however, as some, like Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon, and Tesla, reinvest their cash into future growth. Dividend stocks can be treated as long-term investments and may experience volatility. When choosing dividend stocks, it is important to consider factors such as expected earnings, cash flows, industry strength, and debt-to-equity ratios. AI algorithms can be used to analyze market data and assist in making investment decisions. I Know First offers a dividend forecasting package that utilizes AI algorithms to screen for the best stocks. Their forecasts have generated positive returns and outperformed the market. I Know First provides daily forecasts for over 13,500 assets and is used by institutional clients and private investors alike.

Read More.

Want to learn more?

Letter from the CEO

Dear Readers,

Last week brought with it a flurry of activity, marked by the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher and the Nasdaq-100 setting a record close. Impressively, all three major averages notched their seventh consecutive winning week, painting a bullish picture as we approach the year-end.

Market Highlights:

The S&P 500 is currently scripting its longest weekly winning streak since 2017, and the possibility of achieving its own all-time high looms on the horizon. With the broad market index merely 2% away from its January 2022 pinnacle, the momentum is palpable. As of Friday, the Dow has surged by 3.8% for the month, the S&P 500 is up by 3.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite has climbed an impressive 4.1% in December.

Identifying Opportunities:

Our proprietary I Know First algorithm has been diligently at work, uncovering opportunities across various sectors. Here are some recent highlights:

In the 3 Days forecast for the Top 10 Stocks Forecast Package, BITF, UPST, and RDFN all had returns of 30.84%, 24.88%, and 17.26%, respectively. The Top 10 Stocks Forecast package recorded an overall average return of 11.41%, providing investors with a premium of 9.32% over the S&P 500’s return of 2.09% during the same period. In the 3 Days forecast for the Implied Volatility Options Package, CVNA, CHPT, and CLSK all had returns of 30.13%, 22.52%, and 21.25%, respectively. The Implied Volatility Options package recorded an overall average return of 12.82%, providing investors with a premium of 11.19% over the S&P 500’s return of 1.63% during the same period. In the 7 Days forecast for the Home Builders Package, HOV, MTH, and BDN all had returns of 36.24%, 18.7%, and 17.16%, respectively. The Home Builders package recorded an overall average return of 17.75%, providing investors with a premium of 14.01% over the S&P 500’s return of 3.74% during the same period. In the 7 Days forecast for the Top 10 Stocks Forecast Package, UPST, BIG, and CLSK all had returns of 32.44%, 30.03%, and 18.05%, respectively. The Top 10 Stocks Forecast package recorded an overall average return of 14.41%, providing investors with a premium of 10.67% over the S&P 500’s return of 3.74% during the same period. In the 14 Days forecast for the Top 10 Stocks Forecast Package, BITF, CLSK, and M all had returns of 107.69%, 70.51%, and 24.27%, respectively. The Top 10 Stocks Forecast package recorded an overall average return of 28.72%, providing investors with a premium of 25.41% over the S&P 500’s return of 3.31% during the same period. In the 14 Days forecast for the Implied Volatility Options Package, BITF, CLSK, and MARA all had returns of 107.69%, 70.51%, and 52.8%, respectively. The Implied Volatility Options package recorded an overall average return of 33.17%, providing investors with a premium of 29.86% over the S&P 500’s return of 3.31% during the same period. In the 1 Month forecast for the Implied Volatility Options Package, CLSK, HRTX, and MARA all had returns of 177.08%, 97.43%, and 87.4%, respectively. The Implied Volatility Options package recorded an overall average return of 54.42%, providing investors with a premium of 49.74% over the S&P 500’s return of 4.68% during the same period. In the 3 Months forecast for the Top 10 Stocks Forecast Package, UPST, GIII, and IBP all had returns of 49.5%, 43.41%, and 39.17%, respectively. The Top 10 Stocks Forecast package recorded an overall average return of 23.35%, providing investors with a premium of 17.71% over the S&P 500’s return of 5.64% during the same period. In the 1 Year forecast for the Home Builders Package, HOV, MHO, and BZH all had returns of 235.47%, 166.04%, and 128.36%, respectively. The Home Builders package recorded an overall average return of 89.65%, providing investors with a premium of 71.53% over the S&P 500’s return of 18.12% during the same period.

Special Holiday Offer:

In the spirit of the season, we are thrilled to present our 1+1 Happy Holidays Deal for $299. It’s a unique opportunity to elevate your investment strategies and position yourself for success in the upcoming year without any commitment. Explore the Happy Holidays Deal and make this season even more special with our exclusive offering.

Best Regards
Yaron Golgher, CEO


Q&A With I Know First
I Know First’s Daily Market Forecasts And How to Interpret the Numbers

Q. What is the forecast date?
A. The forecast date is the date the algorithm released this set of predictions.

Q. What is the time horizon?
A. The time horizon is the suggested period of time to hold the suggested stocks. When we calculate the forecast performance, we do so from the forecast date through the end of the time horizon.

Q. What is the S&P 500 stock prediction and why do you include it?
A. The S&P 500 is the major US index and is the general indicators for the direction of the US stock market. If the algorithm predicts that the S&P 500 will go up, then it is a good sign that the stock market will generally increase. It helps in decision making. It is generally preferable to go long the Top 10 stocks when the S&P 500 has a positive prediction and to go short the 10 stocks on the bottom of the table when the S&P 500 has a negative prediction.

Q. What is the accuracy (checks and x marks)?
A. If the algorithm correctly predicts the direction of a stock’s movement, a checkmark is placed next to the stock’s return and if the algorithm is incorrect in its prediction, an x mark is placed next to the stock’s return.

Q. What is the return?
A. The return is the percentage movement of each stock multiplied by 1 if the algorithm suggested a long position or multiplied by negative 1 if the algorithm suggested a short position. In other words, if the algorithm correctly predicts the direction of the stock, the return is the positive percentage change of the stock, and if the algorithm incorrectly predicts the direction of the stock, the return is the negative percentage change of the stock. The return is the last end of the day price at the target date of the forecast VS the price when the forecast was sent (the end of the day price of the previous day).

Weekly Apple Stock Update

Apple Collaboration with TSMC for Advanced Chip Technology Apple is partnering with TSMC to develop 2nm chips, surpassing the current 3nm chip technology in terms of density and performance. These chips are crucial for future advancements in Apple silicon, data centers, and AI. Apple’s collaboration with TSMC helps maintain a strong partnership and competitive edge against Samsung and Intel. They plan to continue ordering 3nm and 2nm chips until at least 2027, with production of the N2 2nm chips starting in 2025. Apple Proposes NFC System to Other Payment Services In response to EU antitrust concerns, Apple has proposed sharing the iPhone’s NFC system, which is used for Apple Pay, with other payment services. This move comes after complaints from banks and rivals, including PayPal, about Apple’s exclusive access to the NFC chip. The European Commission is expected to gather feedback on Apple’s proposal before making a decision next month. Similar concerns were raised by Australian banks in 2017 regarding limited access to the iPhone’s NFC. Read more.
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