I Know First Weekly Review Algorithmic Performance: April 1st, 2021

I Know First
Weekly Newsletter | April 1st, 2021

Good morning, I Know First universe.
We’re happy to share our best article and stock prediction of the week:
  • Top Trade Ideas – Stock Market Predictions Based on Deep Learning: Returns up to 4240.53% in 1 Year
  • Top Featured Article – MRO Stock Forecast: Oil Company That Gives High Expectations Beyond Storm in the Commodity Market
Top 10 Stocks to Buy This Week Based on AI Algorithm + Top 10 Aggressive Stock Picks

Need To Know First!

  • Top Stock Picks Based on Deep Learning: Returns up to 7.85% in 3 Days
  • Home Builders Stocks Based on a Self-learning Algorithm: Returns up to 7.64% in 7 Days
  • Best High Short Interest Stocks Based on Deep Learning: Returns up to 95.46% in 14 Days
  • Implied Volatility Options Based on AI: Returns up to 140.81% in 1 Month
  • Implied Volatility Based on Artificial Intelligence: Returns up to 798.26% in 3 Months
  • Stock Market Predictions Based on Deep Learning: Returns up to 4240.53% in 1 Year
  • Applied Material (AMAT) Stock returns up to 108.80% since July 16, 2020, as operating costs are rising due to growth in research and development expenses for future growth.
  • Southwest Airlines (LUV) Stock returns up to 81.33% since June 14, 2020, as Southwest is likely to lose less than other airlines in this Covid-19 crisis due to its low-cost strategy.
  • Denbury (DEN) Stock returns up to 44.93% since January 24, 2021, following the expectation of oil demand to rebound significantly this year.

Weekly Winning Forecasts

3 Days
Insider Trades: 37.9% Return
Top 10 Stocks: 7.85% Yield
S&P 500 Stocks: 3.97% Average

7 Days
Best AI Stocks: 12.57% Yield
Home Builders: 7.64% Return
Aggressive Stocks: 17.22% Average
14 Days
Aggressive Stocks: 83.22% Yield
High Short Interest: 95.46% Return
Stocks Under $5: 15.19% Average
1 Month
Implied Volatility: 140.81% Yield
Retail Stocks: 17.75% Average
Hedge Fund Stocks: 77.9% Yield

3 Months
Consumer Stocks: 1152.35% Return
Hedge Fund Stocks: 798.26% Yield
Strong Buy Stocks: 26.01% Average
1 Year
Low P/B Stocks: 4240.53% Return
Hedge Fund Stocks: 615.61% Avg
Aggressive Stocks: 2191.79% Yield
☆ Top 10 Stocks to Buy Today: Predicting This Week’s Winning Stocks By Using Deep-Learning ☆

Snippets From Our Top Blog Posts For The Week:

Stay Ahead Of The Curve: AI Weekly

High-Risk Stocks: Trading Becomes Easier With Machine Learning, Even During The Pandemic

Aggressive stocks are high-risk, high-reward stocks. They can potentially produce higher returns than conservative stocks, but also has equal potential for bigger losses. Examples of aggressive stocks would include junior mining stocks, smaller technology stocks, and penny stocks.

After you keep in mind the risks and possible rewards of aggressive stocks, you can start trading. But how do you pick the right sticks?

I Know First offers aggressive stock packages, as one of I Know First’s equity research solutions. Our predictive stock market algorithm is based on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. This makes the algorithm capable of creating, modifying, and deleting relationships between financial assets.

From 17th July 2019 to 6th January 2021, the algorithm outperformed the benchmark index throughout the time periods. Due to the high volatility of aggressive stocks, having a long-term investment outlook is ideal. All in all, an investor can improve his investments by adding Aggressive stocks to his portfolio when considering the I Know First predictability indicator.

Read more here and here.

Trading ETF vs Stocks: Build Up Your Wealth With AI

An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, is a type of mutual fund that’s traded openly on stock market exchanges. It has been increasingly popular with investors over the years. According to Statista, there are almost 7000 ETFs in the world as of the year 2019.

Dollar-cost average, sector rotation, and short selling are all good strategies to trade on ETFs. But the simple principle on profiting is still ‘buy low and sell high’. As investors, we oftentimes do not have a deep insight into the market. It’s hard for us to process a massive amount of market data and events. We can be shocked by big events, such as the coronavirus outbreak so that we won’t be rational enough to analyze the situation and make decisions. Or we could simply be too busy to study market trends on our own.

Luckily, I Know First’s trading algorithm can be helpful in ETF trading. The ETF package is one of our quantitative investment solutions that determines the top ETFs by screening our database using artificial intelligence.

Read more.

MRO Stock Forecast: Oil Company That Gives High Expectations Beyond Storm in the Commodity Market

Marathon Oil Corporation is an exploration and production company focused on U.S. territorial resources: the Eagle Ford in Texas, the Bakken in North Dakota, the South Central Oklahoma Oil Province in Oklahoma, and Northern Delaware in New Mexico.

I take a buy-side on MRO stock because the stock holds a positive DCF forecast resulting in a $12.64 target price, i.e., around 21% upside potential in the coming years. Marathon Oil Corporation is one of the best companies in the Oil & Gas Industry by allocating money to investors through buybacks. Also, the company has a strong dividend payment history and continues to pay dividends despite the pandemic time and dropped prices on the commodity markets in 2020. Price growth on the commodity markets after the drop in 2020 is the main factor of increasing expected revenue and a driver of MRO’s stock price.

Read more.

AI in Finance: How Good is Morgan Stanley’s Foray into Deep Learning?

Gone are the days of the “AI winter”, when artificial intelligence was regarded as a dying field. With the drastic improvement in computing power and the widespread availability of open-source artificial intelligence-related algorithms, companies and countries alike are investing substantial amounts of funding into artificial intelligence technologies such as deep learning to ensure that they remain competitive and ahead of their competitors.

Morgan Stanley, the renowned multinational American investment bank and financial services company, is no exception. On 27 June 2019, a report from CNBC announced how the bank used deep learning to study its own analysts to determine their analysts’ confidence in different stocks.

Here at I Know First, our algorithm is purely based on empirical data and not on any human-derived assumptions. Upon building the mathematical framework and presenting to the system the starting set of inputs and outputs, the development of the algorithm is solely based on our proprietary technology.

Read More.

NCLH Stock Forecast: COVID-19 holds the Future

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd (NYSE: NCLH) is a leading global cruise company that operates the Norwegian Cruise Line, Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises brands. With a combined fleet of 28 ships with approximately 59,150 berths, these brands offer itineraries to more than 490 destinations worldwide. The COVID-19 pandemic had a major impact on the company forcing it to pause all its cruises.

This week NCLH announced an additional extension of its previously announced suspension of gall global cruise voyages with embarkation dates through June 30, 2021. In addition, earlier this month the company announced the closing of a public offering of 47,577,947 ordinary shares at a price of $30 per share.

I take the buy-side on NCLH stock. It is reasonable to expect further growth in the stock price in the long term once the company resumes its cruise operations as the world’s population receives the COVID-19 vaccination and starts to gradually return to normal.

Read More.

Want to learn more?

Letter from the CEO

Dear clients,

In a matter of fact, the stock market is about risk. Whenever someone invests in something, he’s assuming some kind of risk. But considering a risk aversion approach is there a way to minimize it without a huge impact on the return?

According to BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy, yes. Historically, lengthening the time horizon reduces the probability of a negative return. Since 1929, the S&P 500 registered an average of 46% of having a negative return in the total return from 1 day. Meanwhile, the same percentage for the total returns of 10 years was only 6%. In other words, long-term investments usually mean safer investments.

So how can I Know First help me with this?

Our predictive algorithm helps our clients to minimize their risks without reducing their yields. In the Insider Trades package, our AI provided a return of up to 37.9% in only three days. The package average return was 6.75%, providing investors with a 4.55% premium over the S&P 500’s return of 2.2% during the same period. Even in a small timeframe, the algorithm was still able not only to provide a positive return but also three times higher than the S&P 500!

The same happens if we look into a longer time horizon. In a 3 months time span, the Insider Trades package registered an average yield of 30.89%, while the S&P 500 returned 6.65% in the same period. The package highlight was BGFV with a return of 63.88%, while HRI and KSS also had notable returns of 58.18% and 52.93% respectively.

Plus, a performance evaluation of our AI shows that its hit ratio is also higher than what the S&P 500 historically indicates. Considering the Big Tech Stocks package, the algorithm hit ratio in 1 year reached from 80% to 99%, while the probability of a positive return from S&P in the same time period is only 74% on average. Considering that the evaluation was in the middle of the pandemic, the AI hit ratio is outstanding.

If you want to enhance your portfolio, we made available a valuable feature. For annual clients, you can receive a custom AI-based forecast for your own portfolio. If you want more information about it, you can e-mail us by clicking here.

You can also click here to receive today’s forecast and boost your portfolio!

Warmest Regards

Yaron Golgher, Co-Founder and CEO
Q&A With I Know First
I Know First’s Daily Market Forecasts And How to Interpret the Numbers
Q. What are the Top 10 stock predictions?
A. The Top 10 stock predictions are the stocks that are poised to grow the most (have the strongest positive signals).

Q. What is the S&P 500 stock prediction and why do you include it?
A. The S&P 500 is the major US index and is a general indicator for the direction of the US stock market. If the algorithm predicts that the S&P 500 will go up, then it is a good sign that the stock market will generally increase. It helps in decision making. It is generally preferable to go long the Top 10 stocks when the S&P 500 has a positive prediction and to go short the 10 stocks on the bottom of the table when the S&P 500 has a negative prediction.

Q. How should I use the S&P 500 forecast?
A. The S&P 500 is a great representation of the general US stock market. If the algorithm predicts that the S&P 500 will go up, then it is a good sign that the stock market will generally increase. If the predictability for the S&P 500 is relatively weak, then it is important to be cautious, as the algorithm is unconfident about the direction of the stock market.

Q. Which time horizons should I follow?
A. The longer-term forecasts (1-month and 3-month) tend to have higher predictabilities as the algorithm can more easily spot long-term trends. We suggest following these two-time horizons the most closely, but the more reactionary shorter-term horizons are helpful in understanding the short-term volatility of the market. Perhaps if you see that a stock with a strong, positive 3-month prediction has a negative short-term forecast, it is a good idea to wait until the stock decreases in value before buying it.

Q. How should I use the predictabilities and signals?
A. It is recommended that investors consider both the signal strength and predictability, as a highly predictable stock that barely moves and an unpredictable stock that is projected to move drastically both make unattractive investments.
Get Access to the Latest Heatmap + Daily Market Forecasts!

Commodities, Gold & Currencies

Gold Price Forecast:
Returns up to 3.08% in 3 Months

March 28 | Read More

Commodity Outlook:
Returns up to 84.71% in 1 Year

March 28 | Read More

Currency Forecast:
68.63% Hit Ratio in 14 Days

March 17 | Read More
Gold Outlook:
Returns up to 1.1% in 3 Days
March 21 |
Read More

Forex Forecast:
60.78% Hit Ratio in 7 Days
March 21 |
Read More

Commodity Price Forecast:
Returns up 3.83% in 3 Days
March 24 |
Read More
Find The Latest Top Commodities and Currency Pairs With AI Insight

Weekly Apple Stock Update

This week’s Apple Stock News reports that Public Beta program members can now download iOS 14.5 Public Beta 5. The absence of anything new in the public release notes signals that maybe Apple wasn’t planning to hold on to iOS 14.5 past this week. According to MacRumors, the update also brings worldwide support for 5G in Dual-SIM mode on iPhone 12 models.

Additionally, according to a report by AppleInsider, Apple is researching a possible haptic feedback device that could be placed on top of a mattress and act as an alarm clock or relaxation device for users. Apple already owns a sleep tracking device firm and introduced a sleep tracking feature to the Apple Watch platform. This patent application continues Apple’s trend of its sleep-related ambitions.

Also, according to the report by The Verge, Apple MacBook users unhappy with the butterfly keyboards used in certain models will be able to proceed with a lawsuit against the company. The suit covers anyone who purchased a MacBook with a butterfly keyboard in California, New York, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, Washington, and Michigan.

Finally, as reported by The Guardian, Apple and ‌Epic Games‌ on Tuesday went head-to-head in a federal court in Sydney, Australia, following Epic’s decision to expand its legal battle into the country. Apple has argued that Epic Games’ case against the tech giant’s in-app purchase system is not altruistically trying to secure a better deal for Australian customers and app developers in the app store, but the “self-serving” act of a Goliath trying to fundamentally change Apple’s business model.

Read more.
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