Google Stock Forecast: Why Verily Is Emerging As A Future Catalyst For Alphabet

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology – Senior Analyst at I Know First.


  • Aside from Waymo, I believe Verily is one of those moonshot projects that can be very strong future growth catalysts for Alphabet.
  • Verily’s mission of improving healthcare through data science and technology is a compelling reason to go long on GOOG or GOOGL.
  • The global healthcare industry is much bigger than digital advertising. As per Deloitte, global healthcare spending will reach $10.05 trillion by 2022.
  • Verily’s tech-driven approach to improving healthcare is more viable than self-driving cars. It’s already 2019 and yet there’s still no government-approved commercial autonomous car on the road.
  • Going forward, Verily could turn out to be a multi-billion growth driver for Google within the next 5 to 10 years.

Verily Life Sciences might not be accretive to Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG) right now. I still accepted Verily as a great reason to go long/stay long GOOGL or GOOG. Verily’s efforts to improve healthcare can potentially become a bigger business than digital advertising. Alphabet is spending billions of dollars to research faster and better ways to healthcare management. Using data science and new technologies, Verily will have to eventually become a profitable venture.

(Source: Verily)

Going forward, Alphabet is investing big money on Verily healthcare-related projects because it eventually wants to benefit from the massive global healthcare industry. As per Deloitte’s report, the global healthcare spending is expected to reach $10.059 trillion by 2022.

(Source: Deloitte)

Digital ad spending, where Alphabets gets over 90% of its revenue/net income, is only projected to reach $427.26 billion by 2022. Verily is Alphabet’s big bet to become a major player in the upcoming $10 trillion/year healthcare industry. Three years from now, Alphabet will no longer rely too much on digital advertising to grow its business. My fearless forecast is that by 2022, Verily and its mega-cap partners will have healthcare solutions that are actually profitable.

Based on the chart above, the average health care cost per person by 2020 will reach $11,674. This amount is much larger than the average $10 to $200 that Google makes on advertising/per person. Alphabet has far more growth potential in health care services than in digital advertising.

What Are The Potential Benefits From Alphabet’s Foray Into Healthcare?

Verily has several projects toward improving health management. I am very interested in Onduo. Onduo is a partnership between Alphabet and Sanofi (SNY) that seeks to offer a better way for people to manage their Type 2 diabetes. Diabetes management in the United States already costs $327 billion/year. Going forward, Verily taking just 5% market share in U.S. diabetes care/management could already generate $16.25 billion in annual revenue.

Another future multi-bagger for Verily is Verb Surgical. Collaborating with a subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson, Verb Surgical is Verily’s mission to develop an intelligent digital surgery platform. It will incorporate robotics, machine learning, internet connectivity, visualization, and advanced instrumentation. The general surgery market alone was already worth $14.6 billion in 2017. It will grow to $21.26 billion by 2024.

As per the forecast of Cision KSV Research, surgical robotics will achieve market size of $98 billion by 2024. These three multi-billion niche markets have the potential to make Verily a $25 billion/year subsidiary of Alphabet.

Advertising Money Is Financing Alphabet’s Adventure Into Healthcare Services

Thanks to its $30 billion annual net income (90%+++ from advertising revenue), Google can afford to allocate over $21 billion in annual Research & Development budget. A part of this massive annual R&D budget obviously goes to Verily Life Sciences and Waymo self-driving cars. However, I suspect that Google is allocating more research money on the numerous projects that Verily is currently undertaking.

Going forward, Artificial Intelligence-powered healthcare solutions offer a more lucrative future than self-driving cars. It is already 2019 and yet there’s still no government-approved commercial autonomous car operating until now. I bet that Google is spending more R&D on Verily than on Waymo. Healthcare services/management will always be a greater industry than selling and making cars.


If you like to gamble on the future of hi-tech healthcare management solutions and platforms, you should bet on Alphabet. Verily Life Sciences is will financed and has more than a dozen mega cap health care companies as partners. Verily looks like a money-draining moonshot right now with costly experimental projects. Think forward, Google won’t be spending billions of dollars on Verily if it did know that it has decent odds to become a future multi-bagger.

If Alphabet values Waymo at around $10 billion right now, my takeaway is that Verily Life Sciences is worth more than $20 billion already. I still hold to this valuation even if Verily doesn’t have any commercial product/services yet.

My buy rating for GOOGL/GOOG it backed by the bullish 1-year market trend score (157.57) for it from I Know First.

How to interpret this diagram.

I also checked the monthly technical indicators and moving averages and based on the chart below, GOOGL is really a buy.


Past I Know First Success with Google Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on GOOGL’s shares in past forecasts. On February 10, 2019, the I Know First algorithm issued a bullish 30 days forecast for GOOGL with a signal of 1.06 and a predictability of 0.27, the algorithm successfully forecasted the movement of the GOOGL share. Until today, GOOGL’s shares have risen by 7.98% in line with the I Know First algorithm’s forecast. See chart below.

This bullish Google stock forecast was sent to I Know First subscribers on
February 10, 2019.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.