Google Stock Forecast: The Boycott Against Facebook Is A Tailwind for Google

This Google stock forecast is written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology, Senior Analyst at I Know First

Google Stock Forecast Summary:

  • There’s a growing list of big and small companies that are boycotting Facebook. Many of them are also stopping their ad placements on Zuckerberg’s company.
  • This growing socio-political headwind of Facebook will benefit the search and mobile advertising businesses of Google.
  • Companies who won’t place ads on Facebook will have extra marketing budget that could be spent on YouTube, Google Search, and AdSense-using websites/apps.
  • The growing number of Android gamers also boosts the app-install advertising business of Google.
  • My 1-year Google stock forecast price target is $1,600. This is slightly higher than the average price target of $1,514.3 at Tipranks.

The big -5.45% decline in Google’s (GOOGL) stock price last June 26 is nothing to worry about. It was due to eMarketer’s report that Google will probably suffer a 5.3% drop in U.S. digital advertising revenue this year. The report explained that the COVID-19 pandemic affecting U.S. companies can lead to lower U.S. ad spending. Investors got nervous because eMarketer mentioned that Google is allegedly ceding U.S. market share to Facebook (FB) and Amazon (AMZN). 

Google Stock performance
(Source: Seeking Alpha Premium)

My takeaway is that Google can offset the drop in U.S. digital ad spending via its international advertising platforms. Further, eMarketer probably made its report prior to last week’s emerging civil groups-initiated boycott-Facebookmovement. There’s now a growing list of small and large companies that are withdrawing their ad placements/relationships with Facebook. Facebook stands to lose hundreds of millions (or even billions) of ad dollars because mega-cap companies like Unilever (UL), Coca-Cola (KO) and Verizon (VZ) are among the boycotters. 

My fearless forecast is against the prediction of eMarketer. Google will actually gain market share in the U.S. at the expense of Facebook. The socio-political boycott against Facebook is why GOOGL deserves a 1-year price target of $1,600.  This price target is not lofty. It is only slightly higher than the average PT of $1,514.13 at TipRanks. 

Google Stock target & analyst ratings
(Source: Tipranks)

I like using Artificial Intelligence to help me in my stock forecasts. It made  me happy that WalletInvestor has an AI-powered 1-year Google stock forecast price of $1,582.68. The AI system of WalletInvestor is largely centered around technical indicators. I checked the monthly technical indicators of GOOGL and the chart below says this stock is a Strong Buy.

Technical indicators supports Google Stock Forecast

The boycott headwind of Facebook is also likely why the AI of has a high 1-year probabilistic price of $1,618.08 for Google stock forecast. Now is therefore the right time to increase our position on GOOGL. 

The boycott headwind of Facebook is also likely why the AI of has a high 1-year probabilistic price of $1,618.08 for Google Stock Forecast
(Source: Financhill)

The Loss of Facebook Is Google’s Gain

Multinational companies boycotting Facebook ultimately benefits Google Ads and Google AdSense-using websites/apps. Companies who are refraining buying ad placements on Facebook’s website and mobile app therefore have extra marketing budget. Their savings from Facebook ad spending will eventually get to be spent on Google Ads and Google AdSense-powered websites and mobile apps. Google and those 212,852 companies who use AdSense will share the benefits from the boycott-Facebook movement. 

The United States touts the greatest number of Google AdSense-using companies in the world. I am therefore highly confident that GOOGL will not see a 5% drop in U.S. ad spending this year. 

(Source: Enlyft)

According to Datanyze, Google Ads and Google AdSense dominates in the world. Coca-Cola not buying digital display ads or Newsfeed Ads on Facebook means it has more money to spend on Google Ads and on YouTube. YouTube is the ideal social advertising alternative to Facebook. Thanks to the boycott against Facebook, I expect YouTube to generate $20 billion in advertising revenue this year.  

(Source: Datanyze)

Thanks to the boycott against Facebook, I expect Google network websites revenue to hit $23 billion this year.

(Source: Statista)

Verizon, Coca-Cola, and Unilever not spending on Facebook’s mobile advertising platform means they have more money to spend on Google’s search and app-install advertising services for Android phones. According to Appsflyer, Google surpassed Facebook in app market installs last year. The boycott-Facebook crusade means Google will remain the best beneficiary of the $76.2 billion/year app-install advertising market. 

The app install ad industry is a fast-growing opportunity for Google. Appsflyer believes it will growth to $118.4 billion by 2022. 

(Source: AppsFlyer)


My fearless forecast is that Google can still grow its global advertising revenue this year. The boycott against Facebook will help Google beat the $169.23 billion average revenue estimate for FY 2020. Thanks to the headwind of Facebook, my prediction is that Google can wrap up this year with annual revenue of $175 billion. Thanks to the boycott versus Facebook, Google will continue its consistent high-profitability. GOOGL is a buy because Facebook’s headwind might help it post a 2020 net income of $36 billion. 

GOOGL is a buy because it has lower valuation ratios than FB right now. 

valuation for Google Stock Forecast
(Source: Seeking Alpha Premium)

Aside from its advertising business, Google also has a tailwind from the pandemic-boosted Android games industry.No thanks to COVID-19, I expect Google Play’s revenue to hit $34 billion this year. Google gets a cut of 30% from any purchases at its Play android app store. Google Play’s revenue last year was only $29.3 billion.

(Source: Statista)

The predictive AI algorithm of I Know First also endorses Google. GOOGL’s one-year trend score of 154.42 means I Know First is still bullish on this advertising leader. GOOGL needs to report a year-over-year growth on its 2020 annual revenue and my $1,600 price target for it will be fulfilled.

Google Stock Forecast on June 28 2020

Past I Know First Success With Google Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on GOOGL Stock in past predictions. On 12 Apr, 2020, the I Know First algorithm issued a bullish 1-month forecast for GOOGL with a signal of 0.55 and a predictability of 0.19, the algorithm successfully forecasted the movement of the GOOGL’s shares. After 1 month, GOOGL shares rose by 13.97% in line with the I Know First algorithm’s forecast. See charts below.

Google Stock Forecast on Apr 12 2020
past performance agrees with previous Google Stock Forecast

This bullish predictions for GOOGL stock was sent to the current I Know First subscribers on 12 Apr, 2020.

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