This FTNT Stock Forecast article was written by Levi Fu – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights

• Fortinet’s revenue reached $5.96 billion in 2024, reflecting a 19.9% CAGR from 2019 to 2024.
• The Network Security segment remains the primary growth driver, contributing 100% of revenue and driving profitability expansion.
• Fortinet continues to gain market share, leveraging cost-efficient proprietary ASIC technology and expanding cloud security offerings.
• Despite short-term bearish technicals, the long-term trend remains uncertain, and confirmation of a reversal is needed before shifting to a bullish outlook.

Overview

Fortinet is a global leader in cybersecurity and security-driven networking solutions, serving businesses, governments, and Fortune 100 companies. It operates in two segments: product revenue, driven by its FortiGate hardware and virtual security appliances, and service revenue, primarily from FortiGuard security subscriptions and FortiCare support services. Fortinet’s Security Fabric platform integrates endpoint, cloud, and network security, offering automation, scalability, and real-time threat intelligence.

Fortinet Segment Performance

Fortinet’s business remains singularly focused on its Network Security Solutions, which has been the engine behind its robust growth over the past several years. From fiscal 2019 to 2024, revenue in this segment climbed steadily—from $2.16 billion in 2019 to nearly $6.0 billion in 2024. Growth was particularly strong in 2021 and 2022, with year-over-year increases reaching 28.8% and 32.2%, respectively, before moderating to 20.1% in 2023 and 12.3% in 2024. Alongside rising revenues, gross profit before tax expanded from $1.66 billion in 2019 to almost $4.80 billion in 2024, while operating profit before tax surged from $351 million to over $1.80 billion in the same period. These results underscore not only top-line expansion but also marked improvements in profitability—net profit after tax grew from $331.7 million to $1,745.2 million, buoyed by efficient cost management and higher-margin recurring revenue from subscription-based services.

On a year-over-year basis, the Network Security Solutions segment demonstrated remarkable operating profit growth—gains of 49.7% in 2019, 51.5% in 2020, and then a solid 49.1% in 2022, followed by an impressive 45.3% jump in 2024. The capital-intensive nature of the business is reflected in rising depreciation and modest capital expenditure fluctuations, with capital investments peaking in fiscal 2021 before stabilizing. Despite these investments, the asset base grew substantially—from roughly $3.88 billion in 2019 to almost $9.76 billion by 2024—enabling Fortinet to scale its operations and drive efficiencies across its product and service offerings.

Geographically, Fortinet’s performance is buoyed by a diversified global footprint. In the United States, revenues grew from $695.5 million in 2019 to nearly $1.78 billion in 2024, with the US market contributing steady double-digit year-over-year gains. Similar robust trends were observed across other regions. Revenues in the Other Americas rose from $224.7 million to $663.3 million, while the EMEA region delivered particularly strong performance—growing from $816.5 million in 2019 to $2.40 billion in 2024. The Asia Pacific region, too, showed healthy revenue gains, moving from $426.3 million to about $1.12 billion over the period. Although asset growth varied across regions—with the US and EMEA recording high asset growth percentages, and mixed trends seen in Asia Pacific, Canada, and Latin America—these figures collectively highlight Fortinet’s effective expansion in both established and emerging markets.

Fortinet overall financial trends for the past 5 years

Fortinet has experienced remarkable growth over the past five years, with revenue climbing from about $1.80 billion in 2018 to $4.42 billion in 2022​. From 2018 through 2020, the company delivered steady ~20% annual revenue increases, then accelerated to over 29% growth in 2021 and 32% in 2022 as cybersecurity demand surged. Notably, 2022’s revenue jump (adding over $1 billion in sales year-over-year) marked an inflection point driven by heightened customer investments in network security and a backlog of orders being fulfilled following supply chain improvements​. This sustained top-line expansion reflects both strong organic growth and Fortinet’s success in capturing market share during a period of rising cyber threats.

Beneath the revenue growth, Fortinet’s profitability has strengthened significantly. Gross margins have remained robust – in the mid-70% range in recent years – thanks to a revenue mix rich in high-margin security services​. Operating income has grown even faster than sales, indicating improving efficiency. GAAP operating margin improved from roughly 16% in 2019 to about 21.9% by 2022​​. This margin expansion was especially pronounced in 2020, when cost controls and pandemic-related expense reductions (like lower travel and marketing event costs) boosted profitability​. In 2021, Fortinet deliberately ramped up investments in sales and R&D to fuel growth, causing a slight dip in operating margin to 19.5%​. However, the payoff came in 2022: operating income surged ~49% year-on-year​, and margins widened again as revenue growth outpaced operating expense increases. GAAP net income more than doubled over five years – from about $332 million in 2019 to $857 million in 2022​– indicating that Fortinet not only grew rapidly but did so profitably. In fact, 2022 marked Fortinet’s 14th consecutive year of GAAP profitability, a streak few high-growth tech companies can claim​.

Operating expense trends reveal how Fortinet balanced growth and efficiency. In the late 2010s, the company was already profitable but reinvested heavily to scale up its global sales teams and innovation pipeline. Selling, general, and administrative costs grew in absolute terms, yet Fortinet achieved greater operating leverage as revenues expanded. By 2020, the company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue had declined enough to lift GAAP operating margin above 20%​. Fortinet’s leadership then chose to reinvest some of these gains – hiring aggressively and increasing marketing around its Security Fabric platform – which tempered margin expansion in 2021​. Even so, the efficiency of Fortinet’s business model improved over the five-year span. The company’s sizable installed customer base and channel partner network allowed it to generate more sales per dollar of expense, especially as product demand rebounded in 2021–2022. Overall, Fortinet demonstrated it could scale profitably, with only modest dilution of margins during growth spurts and a clear trend of rising profitability over the long run.

Fortinet’s cash flow generation has been exceptionally strong and has grown alongside earnings. Operating cash flow nearly tripled over five years – from roughly $0.64 billion in 2018 to a record $1.73 billion in 2022​. Free cash flow followed a similar trajectory, reaching $1.45 billion in 2022​(up from about $586 million in 2018​). This robust cash flow growth stems not only from higher profits but also from Fortinet’s efficient working capital and its shift toward more subscription-based revenue. As the company sells multi-year security subscriptions and support contracts, it collects cash up front, which boosts operating cash flow and builds deferred revenue on the balance sheet. For example, deferred revenue (cash collected for services to be delivered) swelled to $4.64 billion by 2022, 34% higher than the prior year​. Fortinet’s cash conversion has consistently exceeded net income, providing ample liquidity to fund R&D, acquisitions, and extensive share buybacks (nearly $2 billion in repurchases during 2022 alone)​. In summary, over the past five years Fortinet transitioned from a mid-sized security player into a large-cap cybersecurity leader, roughly doubling its revenues and more than doubling its profits and cash flows. This growth was not linear – it accelerated notably in the last two years – reflecting specific shifts in business dynamics such as product cycle tailwinds, operating leverage, and rising demand for integrated security solutions.

Fortinet Competitive Landscape

Fortinet’s performance must be viewed in the context of a highly competitive cybersecurity industry that has evolved considerably in the past five years. Overall, Fortinet has strengthened its position and gained ground on key rivals, thanks to both market trends and deliberate strategic advantages. The network security market – where Fortinet began with its flagship firewall appliances – has seen a shake-up as companies demand more integrated and cost-effective solutions. Within this arena, Fortinet and Palo Alto Networks have emerged as the two fastest-growing major vendors, while legacy players like Cisco and Check Point have grown more slowly. Fortinet’s revenue grew at roughly a 27% compound annual rate from 2019 to 2022​, far outpacing the near-flat growth of Cisco’s overall business in that timeframe​ and markedly exceeding Check Point’s low single-digit gains. In 2020, Fortinet overtook Check Point in annual revenue, and by 2022 Fortinet’s $4.4 billion in sales was nearly double that of Check Point’s, signaling a significant shift in competitive rankings. Palo Alto Networks remains a larger player by revenue (around $6 billion in 2022) but has a different business mix and strategy, leaning heavily on software subscriptions. In fact, 75% of Palo Alto’s revenue in 2022 came from subscription and support services​, compared to ~60% for Fortinet’s services share​. This contrast highlights Fortinet’s unique positioning: it has achieved a balance of high-margin recurring revenue while still selling a tremendous volume of hardware. Fortinet’s ability to excel on both fronts – product and services – is a key competitive strength that has enabled it to win customers who want a one-stop, turnkey security infrastructure.

One of Fortinet’s most significant strategic advantages is its focus on cost-effective performance through custom hardware. Fortinet is nearly alone among major security vendors in developing proprietary security processing ASICs that power its appliances. This investment gives Fortinet a tangible edge: its firewalls can often deliver higher throughput at lower cost than competitors’ products, an attractive proposition for budget-conscious enterprises and service providers. As CEO Ken Xie put it, Fortinet enjoys a “cost-for-performance advantage” that lowers total cost of ownership for customers​. This has enabled Fortinet to capture massive volume – by one industry estimate, Fortinet now accounts for 48% of all firewall units shipped worldwide​. Shipping nearly half of the world’s firewalls is a remarkable testament to its competitive prowess in core network security. That volume leadership not only reflects strong demand, but also creates a virtuous cycle: higher sales volume gives Fortinet economies of scale in manufacturing, further driving down unit costs and creating a high barrier for any rival looking to match its hardware price-performance. In essence, Fortinet has positioned itself as the price-to-performance leader in network security, which has been especially compelling to cost-sensitive mid-sized businesses and distributed enterprises rolling out many devices.

Another pillar of Fortinet’s competitive strategy is its integrated platform approach. While some competitors specialize in narrow areas (for example, Zscaler in cloud proxy security or CrowdStrike in endpoint protection), Fortinet offers a broad portfolio under its FortiSecurity Fabric. This spans network firewalls, secure SD-WAN, LAN switching and wireless, endpoint security, cloud security, and more – all designed to interoperate. During the past five years, many organizations have sought to consolidate security vendors and simplify management. Fortinet has directly benefited from this consolidation trend​. Its platform allows customers to replace multiple point products with a unified solution, often managed through a single pane of glass. For instance, Fortinet can combine firewall, VPN, intrusion prevention, web filtering, and even SD-WAN routing in one appliance and management console. Ken Xie noted a real-world example of a large retailer that swapped out multiple vendors’ devices for Fortinet’s integrated solution, achieving significant cost savings and streamlined operations​. The convergence of networking and security has played directly to Fortinet’s strengths, since the company offers products in both domains. As enterprise network and security teams increasingly work together, Fortinet’s end-to-end solutions (from core firewall to OT security on factory floors) make it a compelling one-stop shop. This has helped Fortinet expand its wallet share within customers and defend against point-solution competitors.

Fortinet’s competitive standing also reflects effective execution in different geographies and customer segments. Unlike some U.S.-based peers, Fortinet generates a large portion of its revenue internationally – roughly 60% from regions outside North America, which is a higher foreign mix than many competitors​. Over the last five years, Fortinet invested early and aggressively in emerging markets, building sales channels in Asia, Latin America, and EMEA. This global reach became a strength as cybersecurity spending picked up worldwide. Fortinet’s broad distribution meant it could capture growth in places where rivals had less presence. In terms of customer size, Fortinet historically was strong in small to mid-sized businesses and distributed enterprises (retail chains, etc.), owing to its attractive pricing. It has maintained that SMB momentum – Xie noted particularly strong growth among smaller firms in Europe looking for ransomware protection on a budget​. At the same time, Fortinet has been making inroads with larger enterprises and service providers, who increasingly appreciate Fortinet’s ability to reduce their sprawling security vendor lists. Many big companies, facing skilled-labor shortages and tight budgets, welcome an integrated platform that can do the job of several point products at lower cost. Fortinet’s progress here is evident in its large deals and its mention by Gartner and other analysts as a leader in enterprise network security. Still, in the very largest enterprises, Palo Alto Networks remains a formidable competitor with a strong brand and broad software-centric portfolio, and newer cloud-native entrants like Zscaler have carved out leadership in cloud-delivered security. Fortinet has responded by expanding its cloud security offerings (such as SASE – Secure Access Service Edge – and cloud firewalls) and by emphasizing that its platform can cover both on-premise and cloud needs. As of 2022–2023, Fortinet was rolling out a Unified SASE solution and boasting double-digit growth in that area​, indicating it is adapting to cloud-era requirements to stay competitive.

Geopolitical and industry-wide factors have also influenced Fortinet’s competitive landscape. Heightened nation-state cyber threats and global regulations (like stricter data protection laws) have generally increased cybersecurity awareness and budgets, which benefited all major vendors including Fortinet. However, trade and political dynamics created some shifts. For example, U.S.-China trade tensions and security concerns led some governments and companies to prefer non-Chinese security suppliers, potentially favoring Fortinet in certain deals. Conversely, the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 prompted some multinational vendors to halt sales in Russia, and broad sanctions may have closed off that market – a relatively small impact for Fortinet, but part of the geopolitical backdrop. Supply chain challenges in 2021–2022 affected all hardware-based vendors; Fortinet navigated these better than many, partly due to its control over key components (ASICs) and proactive supply management, but it still saw extended product lead times. Through these challenges, Fortinet’s operational execution (keeping factories running, adjusting pricing to offset component cost spikes, etc.) became a competitive differentiator. In the back half of the five-year period, we see Fortinet emerging with even stronger margins and market share, suggesting it managed external headwinds effectively compared to peers.

FTNT Forecast: Technical analysis

Fortinet’s stock has shown significant technical weakness, suggesting a potential trend reversal. We assess its technical structure using a four-point checklist:

Checklist for Trend Reversal

• FTNT has fallen below both the 15-day and 50-day SMAs ($100 & $102), signaling a loss of momentum. The stock now faces resistance in the $100-$102 range.
• Breakdown below support and trendline. The stock has broken a key support level at $100 and fallen below its long-term uptrend line, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
• 15-day MA crossing below the 50-day MA (Death Cross). The short-term 15-day SMA has crossed below the 50-day SMA, a strong bearish signal indicating further downside potential.
• 50-day SMA turning downward. The 50-day moving average is flattening and starting to turn downward, confirming increasing selling pressure.

Bearish Chart Patterns and Volume Confirmation

• Bear Flag Formation. FTNT has formed a bear flag, suggesting a continuation of the downward move. If this breaks down, a price target of $80–85 is reasonable.
• Double Top Pattern. The failure to break past $114 and subsequent lower high at $105 indicate potential distribution and trend reversal.
• Wyckoff Distribution Phase. FTNT’s inability to sustain rallies, combined with declining volume, points to smart money exiting.
• High Volume on Down Moves. Heavy selling volume on breakdowns, while the recent bounce occurred on low volume, reinforces the bearish outlook.

Momentum Indicators & Market Relative Strength

• RSI. Currently in the low 40s, confirming bearish momentum but not yet oversold. No bullish divergence signals a reversal yet.
• MACD. The MACD has crossed into negative territory, confirming downward momentum.
• Relative Strength vs. Market. FTNT has gone from outperforming the market to now lagging, further reinforcing its technical weakness.

Price Targets & Key Levels

• Critical Support Zones: $93–95, $90 (must hold to avoid deeper downside), and $82–85 (200-day MA).
• Downside Target: A breakdown could send FTNT toward $80–85, potentially $75 if selling intensifies.
• Upside Resistance: $98–100 (recent breakdown level), $105–106 (prior swing high), and $110+ (trend recovery required).

The short-term trend is decisively bearish, with a risk of further downside unless FTNT reclaims key levels above $100. The bear flag pattern, death cross, and breakdown of support indicate further weakness. While the long-term trend remains intact, a drop below $90 or the 200-day SMA (~$82) would put that at risk. Traders should watch for a potential retest of support or a capitulation signal before considering bullish positions.

FTNT Stock Forecast: Analysts’ Consensus

Most analysts have a bearish outlook on FTNT, given its recent technical breakdown. Price targets range between $80 and $110, representing the bearish and bullish cases, respectively. The midpoint estimate is around $95, aligning with key support and resistance levels.

Conclusion

I recommend a hold on Fortinet (FTNT) in the short term (3-month timeframe), as the stock remains in a downtrend with multiple bearish technical signals. Short-term consolidation or an oversold bounce is possible, but without a decisive move above key resistance levels, there is no clear buy signal yet. Long-term, the trend remains uncertain, and investors should wait for confirmation of a reversal before taking new positions.

It is worth paying attention that the stock-picking AI of I Know First has a high signal on the one-year market trend forecasts. The light green for the short-term forecasts is mildly bullish, while the darker green is a strong bullish signal for the one-year forecast.

Past Success with FTNT Stock Forecast

I Know First has been bullish on the FTNT stock forecast in the past. On February 5^th, 2024 the I Know First algorithm issued a forecast for FTNT stock price and recommended FTNT as one of the best S&P 500 stocks to buy. The AI-driven FTNT stock prediction was successful on a 1-year time horizon, resulting in more than 58.14%.

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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.