This DOW Stock Forecast article was written by Milana Papadopoulou – Financial Analyst at I Know First.

Highlights

• DOW hit a 52-week low
• Dow is down 40% in 2024; potential value play for patient investors
• Profit nearly doubled in FY2024 despite lower top-line growth

DOW Forecast: Background and Brief History

Herbert Henry Dow founded Dow Chemical Company over a century ago and was initially producing bromine. The firm was restructured into its current form in 2019 following its spin-off from DowDuPont. Nowadays, Dow Inc. (NASDAQ: DOW) is one of the world’s leading materials science companies. Known for its deep industrial roots and global reach, Dow supplies essential inputs across key sectors—from packaging and infrastructure to electronics, mobility, and agriculture.

In recent year, DOW’s stock has significantly underperformed. Despite the rally that was experienced by the prominent indices and the wider market, DOW has seemingly failed to capitalise on the optimistic wave. Some analysts went so far as to include it in the list of 10 worst-performing large-cap stocks of 2025. Although the assessment is unfortunately not far off the mark, the firm’s financial performance, investments and dividend policy may indicate that it is ripe for a turnaround.

Revenue Breakdown

Dow Inc. reported total net sales of $42.96 billion for the fiscal year 2024, reflecting its diversified operations across three main segments and various global regions. The firm is often titled “chemical companies’ chemical company” as it primarily sells its products to other companies rather than the end consumer.

The regional revenue breakdown was as follows:

• Asia Pacific: This region led with $16.42 billion in sales (38% of the total), bolstered by industrial demand and manufacturing growth.
• U.S. & Canada: Accounted for $13.96 billion (32%), reflecting stable market demand and established customer relationships.
• Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA): Generated $7.71 billion (18%) in revenue, driven by automotive and construction markets.
• Latin America: Contributed $4.88 billion (11%), supported by strong agricultural and packaging sectors.

DOW Forecast: Financial Performance

Dow Inc. closed 2024 with mixed results, showcasing its resilience in profitability despite a tougher environment. While net sales declined to $42.96 billion, down from $44.62 billion in 2023, the company improved its bottom line significantly. Net income nearly doubled, reaching $1.20 billion compared to $660 million the previous year.

This translated into earnings per share (EPS) of $1.57, up from $0.82 in 2023. Despite the year-on-year increase, the metric still came short of analysts’ expectations, which tumbled the stock’s value.

Operating EBIT edged lower to $2.59 billion, a decline from $2.78 billion in 2023, reflecting the margin pressure from continued weakness in certain end markets, especially in the Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment. Still, the company managed to sustain positive cash flow from operations at $5.6 billion, offering a solid base for dividends and strategic investment.

Dow’s ability to return capital to shareholders remains a positive notion for long-term investors: it paid $1.97 billion in dividends and repurchased $494 million in stock during the year, underlining its commitment to long-term value creation.

Cost-cutting initiatives

The management’s efforts have been focused on cutting costs as a way of boosting profitability. A major cost-reduction program was launched, targeting $1 billion in savings, including the reduction of 1,500 jobs—around 4% of its global workforce. These measures are expected to improve operational agility and long-term profitability.

A key challenge remains Europe, now Dow’s highest-cost production region. The company has begun rationalizing higher-cost assets, aiming to rebalance its production footprint. The Packaging & Specialty Plastics segment, which saw a 6% decline in the fourth quarter alone, is under scrutiny for strategic refocusing.

To bolster its financial flexibility, Dow struck a $3 billion cash deal with Macquarie Asset Management, selling a minority stake in select U.S. Gulf Coast infrastructure assets. This move not only strengthens the balance sheet but also gives Dow dry powder for future investments or shareholder returns.

Significant Investments and Joint Ventures

Dow operates several key subsidiaries and equity affiliates that play a vital role in its global footprint. Its Sadia Chemical Company and Map Ta Phut Olefins Company in Thailand, as well as Sadara Chemical Company in Saudi Arabia (a joint venture with Saudi Aramco), are critical to Dow’s feedstock and production capabilities in high-growth regions.

Dow is also doubling down on sustainability and circular economy initiatives. In 2024, the company increased capital expenditures for R&D in low-carbon technologies, advanced recycling, and high-performance materials. These initiatives not only support Dow’s ESG commitments but are also expected to unlock premium margin opportunities in the coming years.

As part of its long-term capital allocation strategy, Dow is balancing cost discipline with selective investment in high-return opportunities, especially in downstream speciality products and infrastructure that support electrification, packaging innovation, and mobility solutions.

DOW Forecast: Stock Performance

In 2024, Dow Inc. (NYSE: DOW) faced a challenging year, with its stock price declining approximately 40%, underperforming the broader market. The S&P 500, in contrast, recorded a 26% gain during the same period.  As of March 29, 2025, Dow’s stock is trading at $34.36 per share, marking a 52-week low and reflecting a significant decrease from its 52-week high of $60.69. 

Looking ahead, analysts have a 12-month average price target of $47.79 for Dow’s stock, suggesting a potential upside of over 39% from its current price.  However, this projection is contingent upon the company’s ability to navigate ongoing market challenges and successfully implement its cost-saving initiatives.

Technical Indicators

A downward-sloping moving average typically indicates a prevailing downtrend. However, when the stock price remains above this declining average, it may suggest a potential reversal or consolidation phase. Dow’s price has remained above the MA in 2025. 

The RSI also suggests a potential bullish signal. An RSI value below 30 generally indicates that a stock is oversold, potentially signalling a buying opportunity. With Dow’s RSI at 32.12, it hovers just above the oversold threshold, it is nearing oversold conditions.  Dow’s proximity to the lower Bollinger band aligns with the RSI’s suggestion of potential oversold conditions. 

Dow Inc.’s technical indicators present a mixed outlook. The downward-sloping moving average suggests a continuing downtrend. The RSI and Bollinger Bands, on the other hand, indicate that the stock is approaching oversold conditions. This signals a potential reversal.

DOW Forecast: Conclusion

From a fundamental standpoint, Dow Inc. remains a cash-generative business. They have a solid dividend yield and a clear plan to streamline operations and refocus capital allocation. The company’s investments in sustainability and high-growth regions, paired with cost rationalisation efforts, support a case for categorising it as a long-term investment. Analysts set an average price target of $47.79, implying over 39% upside. The forecast is, of course, contingent on successful fulfillment of the outlined initiatives. Standing on its 52-week low point, Dow Inc. may appeal to patient, value-focused investors. While not a strong buy yet, it’s a stock to watch closely for signs of operational follow-through and market turnaround.

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