DIS Stock Prediction: Disney Is A Buy – Very Strong Line-up Of Movies This Year

motek 1The article was written by Motek Moyen Research Seeking Alpha’s #1 Writer on Long Ideas and #2 in Technology  – Senior Analyst at I Know First

DIS Stock Prediction

  • DIS Stock PredictionThe movies-centric Studio Entertainment division of Disney could earn more than $3 billion in revenue this year.
  • Movies generated $2.72 billion revenue for Disney last year.
  • Disney already owns the two top-grossing of 2016, Zootopia and The Jungle Book. Zootopia already breached the $900 million global gross level.
  • The upcoming releases of Captain America: Civil War and Star Wars: Rogue One could help Disney get four billion-dollar movies this year.


Investors should add Disney (DIS) to their long-term portfolio this year. The Mickey Mouse empire again has a very promising line-up of movies this year. I expect that for 2016, the Studio Entertainment division could beat the $2.72 billion contributions it gave Disney last year.

Studio Entertainment was the best-performing unit of Disney in 2015. As you can see from the chart below, The Marvel and Star Wars movies released last year helped Studio Entertainment post a 46% Year-over-Year improvement in FY 2015.

DIS Stock Prediction

(Data Source: From Disney’s SEC Filings)

Studio Entertainment contributed 24% of Disney’s operating income of $4.27 billion in 2015. Another strong showing in movies should, therefore, be a strong catalyst for DIS this year. It’s only April and Disney already owns the two-top grossing movies this year.

A check on Box Office Mojo revealed that Zootopia has already grossed more than $909 million since it was released last March 4. Disney’s other hit title, The Jungle Book 2016 also grossed more than $563 million after 12 days of release. These two movies are on track to become billion-dollar titles.dis stock prediction

(Source: Box Office Mojo)

Squeezing More Money From Marvel, Star Wars, And Other Franchise Titles.

Disney will also release Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War next month. Box office estimates from Deadline says this movie could easily earn $200 million in overseas opening weekend, and $190 million from the May 6, U.S. opening date. The Avengers: Age of Ultron movie grossed more than $1.4 billion last year. I think Civil War could match this achievement. It has Iron Man in it. Tony Stark is the third top bankable hero, next only to Batman and Spiderman.

Disney is also releasing another Marvel hero movie in November, Doctor Strange. Two Marvel movies in one year is always better. The Marvel cinematic formula has always been very profitable for Disney.

The December release of Star Wars: Rogue One is another title that could do $500-$600 million in two weeks. Finding Dory (June 17 release) and Alice Through The Looking Glass (May 27 release) are also strong contenders to gross $600 million or more. A lot of people are excited to watch the sequel to Disney’s 2003 Finding Nemo movie.

Disney is making a lot of money remaking The Jungle Book. The 2016 remake of its 1977 Pete’s Dragon animated movie could again prove to be a massive success.

Moana Could Be Another Frozen

I am also bullish on DIS because it looks like Disney is making a Hawaiian-flavored version of Frozen with Moana. The 2013 movie Frozen grossed more than $1.2 billion worldwide. Disney will release Moana on November 23 and it will likely top the charts. Disney has a great track-record of making blockbuster princess-centered musicals.

Like Frozen, Moana is also 3D animated movie with a strong song & dance routine. It’s formulaic to a fault – it has the same cute animal companions that will help the heroine defeat her enemies. The Teen Princess Moana also teams up with a Hawaiian demi-god, Maui (voiced by Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson), on her quest to save her family.

Fans who can’t wait for Frozen 2 will likely flock to watch Moana this year.

Final Thoughts

I love Disney when it has a string of hit movies. Aside from cinema ticket sales, hit movies also provide trickle-down revenue via DVD/Blu-ray sales and third-party licensing. Netflix (NFLX), HBO, and Amazon (AMZN) will again pay top money to be the first ones to stream Disney’s 2016 batch of movies. Toys and other movie-related merchandise are also a good source of extra income for Disney.

Aside from the strong tailwind of hit movies for 2016, my buy endorsement for DIS is also backed by highly-positive technical indicators.

Likewise, the long-term algorithmic forecasts are also very favorable or DIS. According to I Know First algorithmic siganls, Disney’s stock has a +104.78 score for the next 12 months. The stock is a bargain now while it trades below $106. Disney has a 52-week high of $122 – there’s strong probability that DIS could shoot up again before 2016 ends.

dis stock prediction

The I Know First Algorithm successfully predicted in the past the DIS stock movement in this forecast from the 14th of March, 2015. In the 1 year forecast given by the algorithm, we can see a strong bullish signal of 28.31 and a predictability of 0.29. Together in just 1 year the stock price went up by more than 5%.

DIS Stock Prediction