CPRI Stock Forecast: Luxury Fashion Starts to Recover From COVID-19 Effects

This CPRI stock forecast article was written by Maria Grishaev, Analyst at I Know First.

Executive Summary

  • 2020 was a mixed year for the CPRI stock, but as the company and the world starts to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis and the e-commerce growth, we can expect further improvement in the stock price.
  • Quantitative analysis results indicate bullish signals after stock price topped out the moving average line.
  • CPRI deserves a one-year target price range of 50-60$.
oxford shoes, sunglasses, and wristlet
Source: Unsplash.com


Capri Holdings is a multinational fashion holding company, incorporated in the British Virgin Islands. They hold fashion luxury brands such as Versace, Jimmy Choo, and Michael Kors. The brands cover the full spectrum of fashion luxury categories including women’s and men’s accessories, footwear and apparel as well as wearable technology, watches, jewelry, eyewear, and a full line of fragrance products.

In 2020 the stock price rose in total by 12.36% in comparison to an 18.28% rise of the S&P500. However, this month the CPRI stock already rose by 8.3% against a 1.8% rise of the S&P 500.

CPRI stock performance
Source: Yahoo Finance

CPRI Performs Better Than Industry Average

In order to better understand the performance of the company, let’s compare the growth and performance of Capri Holdings to the Apparel, Footwear & Accessories Industry before and during COVID-19.

cpri performance vs industry

Observing second quarter 2020 results within Apparel, Footwear & Accessories industry 9 other companies have achieved higher EBITDA Margin. We can also see from the table that in most ratios the company has performed better than the industry average. While we can see that the year-to-year revenue growth rate of CPRI went down, it’s still at a lesser rate than the industry.  

cpri performance vs competition
Source: Yahoo Finance

As we can see in the chart above, some of CPRI’s biggest competition suffered as well due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of them still haven’t recovered to stock price prior to March.

All of CPRI’s brands had a sequential revenue improvement in 2Q21, with global retail sales increasing mid-single-digits and E-commerce sales up triple digits. There were also high single-digit retail sales growth in Mainland China and retail sales growth in North America.

When looking at the company’s annual reports – they are mostly the same. A big change however can be seen as one major factor in the fiscal 2020 annual report. The Impairment of assets was valued at $708M in comparison to $20-33M in previous years. The impairment of assets during Fiscal 2020 includes $434 million, $187 million, and $87 million of impairment charges related to the Jimmy Choo, Michael Kors, and Versace reportable segments, respectively. It can be explained by the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in declines in sales driven by the full and partial closures of a significant portion of stores globally.

Indicators Show a BUY Signal

cpri indicators analysis
Source: Yahoo Finance

As we can see in the chart, the most recent time that the stock price crossed above the moving average for 200 days (the purple line) was early October and it signaled a potential change in trend. That was indeed the case as the stock rose from there. We can also see that the moving average for 50 days (the red line) crosses above the moving average for 200 days and it also indicates that the trend is shifting up. This is the known “golden cross” that gives us a buy signal.

Another indicator of a potential opportunity is the Bollinger Bands®’s squeeze. A squeeze signals a period of low volatility and is considered by traders to be a potential sign of future increased volatility and possible trading opportunities. This can be seen happening here from August to October. The peak outside the bands in July and October corresponds with the announcements of the quarterly financial results.

cpri yahoo coverage
Source: Yahoo Finance

The Yahoo Finance coverage for the company is performed by 26 analysts, with the majority of whom took the Hold position on the stock. The analysts’ community puts the average target price for the stock at 40.14$ while it is traded at 44.27$ which makes a 10% difference.

As the world continues to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis with the rollout of the vaccinations worldwide, we can be optimistic about the outlook for the fashion luxury industry and the company. Considering the continued e-commerce growth in revenue in the last two quarters (approximately 30% and 60% respectively), the positive solidly increasing quarter-over-quarter sales growth in China (over 25% in the last quarter), we can expect the stock’s growth in price to at least it’s price prior to the pandemic. The company’s strategy to continue to position itself with better products, omnichannel capabilities, and a more strategic store fleet for the long-term results in my estimate to a stock target price range of 50-60$ which makes it a 24-49% difference.


I take the buy-side on CPRI stock. It is reasonable to expect further growth of CPRI stock price as the world starts to return to normal with the positive effect of the vaccination and reopening of retail centers. 

cpri stock forecast

Please note that the stock-picking AI of I Know First has a high signal on the one-year market trend forecasts. The light green for the one month and 3 months forecasts are mildly bullish while the darker green is a strong bullish signal for the one-year forecast.

Past Success with CPRI Stock Forecast

I Know First noticed the upward trend of CPRI and has been bullish with the price since November. On November 22, 2020, the I Know First algorithm recommended CPRI as one of the Top 10 Stocks Package. The AI-driven CPRI stock forecast was successful on a one-month horizon resulting in a 22.13% gain since the forecast date.

cpri stock forecast
cpri historical price

Moreover, on November 20, 2020, the I Know First algorithm also recommended CPRI as one of the Top S&P 500 stocks package to buy. The AI-driven CPRI stock forecast was successful on a 14 days’ time horizon resulting in a 17.4% gain since the forecast date.

cpri stock forecast
cpri historical price
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Please note-for trading decisions use the most recent forecast.